Conflicting Information?

In today's New York Times there is an article by Edward Wong that details the release of another terrorist video tape. Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a message apparently recorded in November of last year, encourages support for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

"The Nation of Islam, I ask you to support your brothers, the mujahedeen in Iraq, and our brother, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, about whom I didn't see anything but good things the whole period I knew him," Mr. Zawahiri said in the video, as translated by the SITE Institute, an organization that tracks terrorists' messages. "I know him to be true, and how he is defending Islam with all his powers."

Yesterday, a story came out that some US officials believe Zarqawi has admitted strategic defeat and is withdrawing from Iraq. The two reports do not necessarily contradict each other. 

If Zarqawi is, indeed, trying to disengage, the release of the tape could be a part of a disinformation campaign. Despite the media's constant stream of negativity a few weeks ago, no civil war has erupted. The news reports lately seem to be indicating a shift in the focus of terrorist attacks, with fewer attacks on civilians and increasing attacks of Iraqi police and military units. That would potentially indicate a change in overall command of the terrorists, since Zarqawi's tenure in command has been mostly marked by attacks directed at civilians.