Donald Sensing has a couple of post up, both at his One hand Clapping site and at Winds of Change that discuss his views on blogging and where it is heading. Frankly, the post paint a depressing picture, especially to a new blogger. Essentially, Sensing says we're doomed.
– Single-author blogs of national-interest topics such as the GWOT, politics, religion, etc., will find it increasingly difficult to gain and maintain significant readership numbers. Team blogs, such as WOC, will come to predominate simply because of the labor intensity high-readership blogging requires. A solo writer trying to keep a site refreshed and original enough to keep two thousand or more reader interested every day faces a terrific burden. I know, I did it for a few years. Team blogs spread the labor and therefore can offer more content of higher quality.
Which tends to make a new blogger trying to gain some readership a bit nervous. Obviously, I've put a lot of time into this blog and I hate to hear it's DOA.
On the other hand, the way I approach blogging and the way Sensing approaches it are fundamentally different. I read One Hand Clapping quite a lot when I was first made aware of blogs. Sensing is a good writer and his posts were always informative, well reasoned and fairly long. In other words, he's a writer. I tend to approach this as more of a linker and a finder of interesting things. I also write, but not anywhere nearly as extensively as Sensing.
So, the question is, is his type of blogging, with long, carefully written pieces headed toward the group blog model? Maybe yes, I don't know. Is the faster paced, less writing intensive blogging still viable? I rather hope so,
Of course, there's also a middle ground where like minded individuals form a sort of consortium. That way the individual bloggers maintain their single voice while being part of a bigger whole. I suspect that may be closer to the future than Sensing's vision.