Counting Chickens
The old warning about "counting your chickens before the eggs hatch" conveys an important truth. It is not a good idea to make final plans based on expected outcomes. Life has a funny way of punishing those who do so. Today in the Washington Post there's an article reporting that Nancy Pelosi is doing just that. She is on the record saying that the Democrats have plans to investigate the Bush administration, on multiple subjects. They also have a bevy of other plans to pass various legislation.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) said in an interview last week that a Democratic House would launch a series of investigations of the Bush administration, beginning with the White House's first-term energy task force and probably including the use of intelligence in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. Pelosi denied Republican allegations that a Democratic House would move quickly to impeach President Bush. But, she said of the planned investigations, "You never know where it leads to."
Democrats are happily pointing to polls that show a majority in favor of Democrats controlling congress. The problem, of course, is that those are national polls, and congressional candidates are not picked by national voters. The article does say there are fewer seats actually in play (buried toward the end of the article again).
In recent days, Democratic confidence has been buoyed by a series of polls indicating that not only is Bush growing increasingly unpopular, so are Republicans in Congress. An Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Friday found that 33 percent of the public approves of Bush's job performance, the lowest rating of his presidency. And only 25 percent approves of the job Congress is doing, a figure comparable to congressional approval ratings before the 1994 elections that swept Republicans to power.
I'm not sure how things will play out in November, there may be enough seats that change hands to give Democrats control of the house. I somehow think that crowing about victory too soon may actually work against the Democrats, though. It will energize the base to get out and vote - on both sides. In other words, it's another two-edged sword Pelosi and her fellows are wielding. The "culture of corruption" sword didn't work out so well. What makes them think they'll be better at swinging this one? Those disapproval ratings for congress are not saying that Democrats are thought of any better than Republicans. Everyone in congress is caught in that net right now.
Other Links to this Post
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Blue Crab Boulevard » Blog Archive » Never Missing An Opportunity — Sunday, 7 May , 2006 @ 6:59 pm
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Blue Crab Boulevard » Blog Archive » On The Counting Of Chickens — Monday, 29 May , 2006 @ 4:43 pm
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Blue Crab Boulevard » Blog Archive » Counting Chickens — Monday, 11 September , 2006 @ 6:58 am
By Black Jack, Sunday, 7 May , 2006 @ 12:35 pm
Today, Nancy Pelosi was on Meet the Press and expressed the same ideas. That woman just did more to bring Conservatives back into the GOP than any single individual since Harriet Miers withdrew her nomination. I’ll bet GWB’s approval rating jumped at least 10 points during the hour.
I’m astonished to admit it, but she’s my favorite Dem, a natural born dingbat who opens her mouth to change feet, and after her next facelift, she’ll have a dimple in her chin. I’m starting to feel a lot better about the mid-term elections. Another crushing loss for the “reality based community” is shimmering out there in the offing and they don’t even begin to see it coming.
By Gaius, Sunday, 7 May , 2006 @ 5:33 pm
I think this is an astonishingly bad strategy for the Democrats, I honestly do.
By Black Jack, Monday, 8 May , 2006 @ 10:12 am
On second thought, Pelosi was surely aware her comments would offend both the GOP and swing voters. But, Nasty Nancy wasn’t there to proselytize, she was pandering to the Dem’s hateful hard Left. Which she sees them as a source of money, energy, and election day votes.
Midterm elections are all about turnout. Few swing voters or moderates get involved, it’s mostly each party’s faithful who clash. So, midterms are all about turning out the base. Nasty Nancy was calling out her side and offering the only bait she knows they’ll swallow, hook, line, and sinker.
By Gaius, Monday, 8 May , 2006 @ 10:22 am
Maybe so, I think they’ll regret this move, though.
By Black Jack, Monday, 8 May , 2006 @ 2:23 pm
Oh yeah, Dems will regret this unseemly crowing, no doubt about it.
Victory favors the resolute, and premature celebration is always a sure signal to buck up and press hard. Strong opposition in the face of unearned self-congratulation frequently turns the tide and sows confusion and collapse among the enemy.
Read the signs and take heart. The sweet smell of victory is blowin’ on the West wind.
By Gaius, Monday, 8 May , 2006 @ 2:31 pm
Well, let’s not go counting our chickens just yet, either.