WaPo On Elections

Today's Washington Post has an article with a headline stating that a growing number of Republican seats are in doubt in this election. They focus on one district in particular, that of Representative Thelma D. Drake (R-Va.).

Drake, who won with ease two years ago, is not alone. With approval ratings for Bush and congressional Republicans at a low ebb, GOP strategists see signs of weakness where they least expected it — including a conservative, military-dominated suburb such as Virginia Beach — and fear that their problems could grow worse unless the national mood brightens.

Some veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are turning into potential problems. Incumbents' poll numbers have softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed. Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.

The changes don't guarantee a Democratic takeover by any means, but they are creating an increasingly asymmetrical battlefield for the fall elections: The number of vulnerable Democratic districts has remained relatively constant while the number of potentially competitive Republican districts continues to climb.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including Drake's, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake's wasn't on the list. "That's a pretty significant increase," he said. "The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long."

What this article does not address at all, and I really would like to know this, is how many Democratic districts are competitive. I was unable to find such a list on Rothenberg's website. (Which doesn't mean it's not there, just that I didn't find it). People quoted in the article say that this election has been "nationalized".

"In a nationalized election, the typical laws of gravity get thrown out the window," Walter said. "Under-funded candidates beat better-funded candidates, and entrenched incumbents lose to first-time challengers."

The one thing that can be tricky about nationalizing the election is, of course, the possibility that if something raises the administration poll numbers, there can be a backfire. Or, conversely, if the Democratic polling numbers deflate, the same thing happens. So this will be an interesting election cycle, one way or the other.