Palestinian President To Push Referendum

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has made a public pronouncement that either sets the stage for a resolution of the Palestinian/Israeli conflict or will ignite an outright civil war. He has set a deadline for Hamas to either approve conducting a referendum to set up a Palestinian state within ten days, or Abbas will go ahead with the referendum without Hamas. Experts expect the referendum would pass if it is held.

Abbas' surprise announcement was a political gamble that could either help resolve the Palestinians' internal deadlock or lead them into a deeper crisis with the militant Hamas group.

Such a vote would effectively ask Palestinians to give implicit recognition to Israel by accepting a Palestinian state on land occupied by Israel in 1967. Approval of the 18-point plan would provide a way out of the impasse over acceptance of Israel, which has led to an international freeze on aid to the Hamas-led government.

Hamas officials were divided over the idea of a referendum, with several giving their blessing, but others dismissing it as an attempt to undercut the Hamas-led government.

A referendum, which Palestinian pollsters expect to pass, could provide cover for the militants to moderate without appearing to succumb to Western pressure. Such a vote could also renew pressure on Israel to return to the negotiating table rather than imposing borders on the Palestinians.

It's a gutsy call, I think. If Hamas balks, it will probably spark the violence level much higher and cause a true civil war. If Hamas cooperates, they are likely to be seriously weakened politically.