On The Counting Of Chickens
There is an old rule of thumb in engineering that goes like this: on any given project, 90% of the project is completed with 10% of the work. The other 10% to complete the project takes the other 90% of your effort. Another manifestation of that rule of thumb is the old saying that the devil is in the details.
A while back I noted that some Democrats appeared to be counting chickens a bit on the early side. In fact, I commented about it several times. Today, I read this little gem from the Associated Press. Some politicians have visions of landslides dancing in their heads.
Republicans are three steps from a November shellacking _ each a grim possibility if habitually divided Democrats get their acts together.
First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections.
That would sting Republicans, who trail badly in national polls.
Second step: Voters must be so angry at Washington and politics in general that an anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality sweeps the nation.
That would wound Republicans, the majority party.
Third step: Americans must view the elections as a referendum on President Bush and the GOP-led Congress, siding with Democrats in a symbolic vote against the Iraq war, rising gas prices, economic insecurity and the nagging sense that the nation is on the wrong track.
That would destroy Republicans, sweeping them from power in one or both chambers and making Bush a lame duck.
Less than six months out, most Democratic and Republican strategists say the first two elements are in place for now _ a national, anti- incumbent mind-set _ and all signs point to the third.
Still, many Democrats worry that their party has not closed the deal.
Five or six months is an eternity in politics. Things may not be quite what they seem right now. A lot of the polls are using badly skewed sampling (I've written about that repeatedly) and some of the antics by both parties are damaging everyone. So there's an element of whistling past the graveyard in this article. The Democrats who are expressing a bit of nervousness right now are probably seeing that things are not quite the lock it would appear.
Chuck Schumer says this: "I think if the election were held today, there is a 50-50 chance of taking the House and the Senate and a very high percentage of gaining a significant number of seats," Schumer said.
"But things change."
Yes, they do, and I think any poultry counting is probably not a good idea just yet.
Five or six months is an eternity in politics. Things may not be quite what they seem right now. A lot of the polls are using badly skewed sampling (I've written about that repeatedly) and some of the antics by both parties are damaging everyone. So there's an element of whistling past the graveyard in this article. The Democrats who are expressing a bit of nervousness right now are probably seeing that things are not quite the lock it would appear.
Chuck Schumer says this: "I think if the election were held today, there is a 50-50 chance of taking the House and the Senate and a very high percentage of gaining a significant number of seats," Schumer said.
"But things change."
Yes, they do, and I think any poultry counting is probably not a good idea just yet.
By fletch, Monday, 29 May , 2006 @ 5:19 pm
A very interesting year…
IMO, this is exactly why the House Repubs took up the immigration issue when they did.
If offered them the chance to run against Bush- while still pleasing a majority of the ‘base’…
I don’t consider myself a Repub, but I lean that way–(Last vote for a Repub Pres- Reagan ‘84; but I was a supporter of John Kasich- and can at least tolerate Debbie Pryce, especially when compared to Mary Jo Kilroy.)
I’ll be voting ‘third party’ in the DeWine/Brown race.
By Gaius, Monday, 29 May , 2006 @ 5:28 pm
It’s shaping up to be unusual. It just may not turn out the way some of the strategists think it will.
By Black Jack, Tuesday, 30 May , 2006 @ 11:50 am
The GOP has the seeds of overwhelming victory well in hand. However, they refuse to take the necessary steps to secure the border, and to be seen doing it over the objections of illegals, the Socialist Workers Party, MSM, and the Democrat Party.
No guts, no glory, no majority. It’s as simple and straight forward as it gets in American politics: Represent the people or get beat and go home.