Wishful Thinking
The New York Times reports that some unnamed European Diplomats are seeing a slowdown in the Iranian nuclear enrichment program. These sources are interpreting that to mean Iran really wants to negotiate.
The diplomats say the slowdown may be part of a deliberate Iranian strategy to lower the temperature of its standoff with the West over its nuclear program, and perhaps to create an opening for Washington to join the negotiations directly — something President Bush has so far refused to do.
Later in the article they also mention that some nuclear experts don't see it as a diplomatic ploy but rather as a technical issue. Having spent a goodly number of years in the nuclear field, I can attest to the fact that while the theory of how to perform enrichment is pretty straightforward, the execution of the process is very technologically challenging. I rather suspect that experts are correct, the Iranians are having difficulties with their equipment or execution. It's not a diplomatic ploy.
I rather suspect the diplomats in question are indulging in wishful thinking. Perhaps they should concentrate on realities instead.
By Jim O'Hara, Tuesday, 30 May , 2006 @ 12:59 am
Iran doesn’t own enough centrifuges to make weapons grade nuclear material. NYT reported in April that Iran is years away (like 5 - 10) from being able to create a nuclear weapon: http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/sf/nyt4_13_06.htm
Sadly one of our top CIA analysts on Iran intelligence was outed by Robert Novak. It’s a bit too much of a conspiracy theory to believe that Novak leaked her name to the press to get rid of a senior CIA analyst who had the contacts to give us a clear picture on Iran’s capabilities and ambitions. The conspiracy theory being ‘now that she’s removed, the administration can start to create its own reality about Iran to justify an invasion.’ I swear if I hear the administration use the line “We don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud” in reference to Iran I’ll get sick. I mean, come on…how does the old saying go? Fool me once, shame, shame on you…..fool me can’t get fooled again!
Jim
By Gaius, Tuesday, 30 May , 2006 @ 5:04 am
Jim, please. That’s going right off the deep end. I for one don’t think the NYT’s track record is all that great lately (nor does Wall Street which just severely downgraded their bond ratings). As a practical matter, once you have figured out how to do enrichment, doing it becomes much easier.