Stopping The Spread Of A Destructive Insect

The Emerald Ash Borer is a tiny, bright green beetle native to Asia. It is causing widespread damage in several areas of the United States. A number of states have imposed tough rules or outright bans on bringing firewood into campgrounds as a result.

Indiana, Ohio and Michigan — where the emerald ash borer has been located — have imposed tough rules on bringing wood into parks and moving live ash trees or logs out of infested areas.

Wisconsin and South Dakota have banned out-of-state firewood outright, and other states are keeping a wary eye on the bug, which has killed nearly 20 million North American ash trees in the three infested states and southern Ontario.

The iridescent green beetle was found in Michigan in 2002. Experts say it likely hitched a ride years earlier from Asia in wooden packing crates. Campers, hunters and city dwellers heading off to cottages for weekend excursions have spread them rapidly by bringing their own firewood along for outings, experts say.

"It's almost done unconsciously when you go camping — you pack your cooler and your tent and your firewood and you head out," said Sharon Lucik, a spokeswoman with the U.S. Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service in Brighton, Mich.

Because the ash borer's native range is in Asia, it has no natural predators in North America. Trees can be treated annually with chemicals to combat the larvae, but that isn't an economical option for vast forest expanses, tree-lined streets and suburban yards, Lucik said.

She said the federal agency's goal is for states to keep ash borer populations confined to infested areas so the beetle will be easier to combat if an effective form of control is found.

The beetle doesn't just threaten ash trees, a wide-ranging species valued for fast growth, shade and fall foliage in the wilderness. Ash wood, strong and light in color, is used in furniture and baseball bats, generating about $200 million annually, according to the American Forest & Paper Association.

So if you're a camper maybe it's time to change your habits and not bring firewood with you at all. Because this has happened before and may well happen again. Illinois has been fighting another species of beetle for a number of years and is finally getting the upper hand. But they are now imposing firewood restrictions so they don't go through the same thing all over again.

101st Blog Of The Day

Continuing my task of trying to visit one member of the Fighting 101st each day, today I visited And Rightly So. Raven has an example of why pedophiles are such a danger to society. She's not too happy with the Dutch, either.

An Unfortunate Nickname

It seems the people who live in the capitol city of Kazakhstan, Astana, have a habit of giving buildings nicknames. Since the capitol was moved there in 1997, many new buildings have been erected using large amounts of the oil revenues they have. One building that houses the Economic Ministry is called The Dollar, a huge residential building near the river is called The Titanic and a tower with an egg on top (don't ask me, they say it represents the nation's prosperity) has been dubbed The Lollipop. The building that houses the Ministries of industry, communications and information was given the unfortunate nickname of The Cigarette Lighter because of it's shape. Why unfortunate, you ask?

Because it turned out to be rather flammable.

Flames and smoke could be seen pouring out of the top of the 38-story building which houses the ministries of industry, information and communications in the capital Astana's government quarter.

There were no official reports of injuries and there was no immediate word on the cause of the blaze. Firemen at the scene said all those inside the building had been evacuated.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev moved the capital of his Central Asian state 1,000 km (600 miles) to the north from leafy Almaty to Astana in 1997. Billions of Kazakhstan's oil revenues have been spent on new buildings.

One can't help but wishing the residents of The Titanic better luck with their nickname.

We Need THIS Kind Of Stuff In Our Congress

It would turn C-Span into the number one network in America overnight! In a totally novel new debating technique, a Taiwanese legislator signified her opposition to a bill being offered for consideration.

By eating the written proposal.

Lawmakers of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) charged toward the podium and protested noisily to prevent the review of an opposition proposal seeking an end to decades-old curbs on direct air and shipping links with China.

Amid the chaos, DPP deputy Wang Shu-hui snatched the written proposal from an opposition legislator and shoved it into her mouth, television news footage showed.

Wang later spat out the document and tore it up after opposition lawmakers failed to get her to cough it up by pulling her hair.

Can you just see the ratings? It would be bigger than American Idol by far!

Oh, never mind. Too many bills in Congress these days are downright toxic.

Another Sign

Of the impending implosion of Europe. Dutch pedophiles are forming their very own political party. They want the age of consent, currently at 16 years, lowered to 12. They also want child porn legalized as well as approval for sex with animals.

The Charity, Freedom and Diversity (NVD) party said on its Web site it would be officially registered Wednesday, proclaiming: "We are going to shake The Hague awake!"

The party said it wanted to cut the legal age for sexual relations to 12 and eventually scrap the limit altogether.

"A ban just makes children curious," Ad van den Berg, one of the party's founders, told the Algemeen Dagblad (AD) newspaper.

"We want to make pedophilia the subject of discussion," he said, adding the subject had been a taboo since the 1996 Marc Dutroux child abuse scandal in neighboring Belgium.

"We want to get into parliament so we have a voice. Other politicians only talk about us in a negative sense, as if we were criminals," Van den Berg told Reuters.

The Netherlands, which already has liberal policies on soft drugs, prostitution and gay marriage, was shocked by the plan.

An opinion poll published Tuesday showed that 82 percent wanted the government to do something to stop the new party, while 67 percent said promoting pedophilia should be illegal.

To the credit of most Dutch people, they are not happy about this and want it blocked. That pedophiles feel safe enough to start political parties doesn't speak well for the state of things in the Netherlands in general, though, I think.

UPDATE: Others taking a dim view of this: Moonbattery (do NOT miss the picture!), Liberty and Justice and Riehl World View.

UPDATE: And the champions of truth, justice and the American way (cough) at the ACLU just lost a biggie. The Supreme Court has decided that convicted pedophiles do not have the right to visits from children while in prison. Perhaps the ACLU would be more comfortable in the Netherlands.

This One Will Get Some People Spun Up

Well-Intentioned Food Police May Create Havoc With Children's Diets, writes Harriet Brown in today's New York Times. It's about sending the wrong messages by forcing a "bad food-good food" narrative. It's also about raging nanny-statism and the paving stones on the way to, well, you know.

A look at what's happening on the state level confirms this. In Arkansas, for instance, children's report cards now include their B.M.I., or body mass index, along with their grades. The governor, Mike Huckabee recently lost more than 100 pounds and is passionate about stopping the "obesity epidemic." Maryland is considering a similar standard.

Never mind that B.M.I. is only a measure of height against weight and does not take into account muscle mass, body type or other factors. (Tom Cruise has a B.M.I. of 31, which puts him in the "obese" category.)

"You're setting kids up to feel bad about how they are," says Dr. Nancy Krebs, chairwoman of the American Academy of Pediatrics' Committee on Nutrition and an associate professor of medicine at the University of Colorado.

Such efforts usually fail, making weight problems and eating disorders worse. A recent Internet discussion board among families with anorexic and bulimic children identified middle school health classes, which focus on weight, as the No. 1 trigger for their teenagers' disorders.

The food wars are being fueled by our emotionally fraught relationships with food, and by increasingly hysterical rhetoric.

We often hear, for instance, of a rising tide of obesity and Type 2 diabetes, especially in children. But the science behind such pronouncements is shaky. A study of nearly 3,000 children presented at the American Diabetes Association's 2005 conference suggested that a third of the children diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes, which is associated with being overweight, were later found to have Type 1 diabetes, linked to genetics.

Abigail C. Saguy, a sociologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies media framing of obesity, says it's hard to know if rates are truly rising, since no nationally representative data are available.

One study of teenagers in the Cincinnati area found that the diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes went from 7 per 100,000 teenagers per year in 1982 to 7.2 per 100,000 teenagers per year in 1994 — a difference that could easily be a result of better diagnostics.

"The term 'epidemic' refers to the rapid and episodic onset of infectious diseases and is associated with fear of sudden widespread death," Dr. Saguy says. In reality, she adds, new research shows no significant difference in death rates between "normal" and overweight Americans; mortality rates rise only for those with a B.M.I. exceeding 35 — only 8 percent of the country. (Links removed)

The use of junk science and feel-good notions to set public policy has always been a real issue. This is a bad way to do business, folks. Read the whole thing. Ms. Brown makes a lot of sense. (But I'll bet her inbox is already smoking from the responses she's getting!)

We’ve Got Hate Mail!

Gee, you really know you've arrived when the emails start rolling in. From deities, no less! Bob over at Confederate Yankee actually took the time to respond (he was also one of the addressees), so head on over there to read his response. Anything I wrote after that would be an anti-climax.

Backlash And Endangering The Troops

The second Post of the email I received from Sarge is about backlash from media reporting.

This week's news cycle seems to focus on a single issue: will the word
"Haditha" become the new buzzword for U.S. war crimes?

I was in Iraq when the Abu Ghraib story broke in 2004 (side note: I drove
past that very prison just last night) and I don't think the American
military has really recovered from the scandal. I remember the backlash it
caused, the increased attacks and IEDs. When I began to read into this
Haditha story, I suddenly realized why attacks have spiked in recent days.
One major disadvantage of the media blitzes these reporters perpetrate is
that they cause more discontent and violence in a country where you can buy
a Soviet-produced rocket propelled grenade launcher with two rounds for the
price of an iPod. For a moment set aside whether these Marines are innocent
or guilty and think about what kind of backlash this story is going to
produce. More IEDs will be placed, more weapons will appear on the streets,
and more soldiers are going to die. I'm a major supporter of the First
Amendment, but I have a vested interest in this incident being kept
low-profile. If it's true, it's an atrocity, and the men responsible from
bottom to top should swing from the yardarm. If it turns out to be yet
another case of the media attacking the Bush administration, an as-yet
unknown number of U.S. servicemen will have been killed as a result of a
media circus. If the latter is true, can we hang the reporters for negligent
manslaughter?

Freedom of the press is a double-edged blade, but it seems these days it
only cuts one way. Major and respected media figures and outlets wave their
politics about like a banner, but anyone who dares to call them on it is
immediately branded a censor and an enemy of free speech. What about
professional responsibility? My fellow soldiers and I are bombarded with
reminders to protect military secrets when speaking to our families on the
telephone or through email, yet the same secrets we're protecting can be
purchased by our enemies simply by stopping off at a newsstand and picking
up a copy of Newsweek. Retractions are rare and grudging, and in cases where
acts of violence can be traced directly to irresponsible reporting, no blame
is shouldered by the news. Anchors simply tell us about the latest incident
without ever adding, "our bad." I'm not asking for self-flagellation, but
I'm getting sick to death of my fellow soldiers being sacrificed on the
altar of journalism and of the absurd sentiment that the people have the right
to know everything and anything, even if it endangers our forces overseas.
Freedom of the press also requires some level of responsibility.

So I implore you, next time you read an article or see a news report about
Haditha, say a prayer for our men and women in uniform that none of them
come to harm because of that report.

A Soldier’s View

I received an email today from Sarge and am posting it as two seprarate posts. This is the first one and discusses Haditha from a soldier's perspective. 

I'll be honest: this morning is the first time I've heard about this
incident in Haditha. I try my best to keep up on current events through the
internet and the Stars and Stripes, but sometimes I have to make the choice
between sleeping and reading the latest news story.

What can I say? If I come out against the Marines, I'm a traitor to my
brothers in arms. If I come out in their defense, I'm an insider protecting
the guilty. It's the definition of a Catch-22; I'm damned if I do and damned
if I don't. I suppose the only thing I can do in this situation is present
both sides of the argument.

My squad leader is sitting right beside me, and we just compared notes on
how many IEDs we've been through. We counted six each. One of them hit my
truck, one of them hit his. I can tell you from firsthand experience that
after an IED goes off, every soldier's first instinct is to start shooting
at everything in sight that's moving. Someone has just tried to kill you, and
you can't kill him back. That said, we've never gone on a shooting rampage
after an IED. On the other hand, all the roadside bombs we've encountered
have only resulted in minor injuries. To play devil's advocate, I can't
imagine how it feels to lose a friend and comrade to an unseen enemy.
If the Marines in question are found guilty of committing a crime, I will
partially understand their emotions even if I abhor their decision.

The above is the military man in me talking. As a human being, I have a
natural and visceral reaction to this story that turns my stomach. If it is
indeed true, these men should suffer the most severe punishment imaginable.
As a soldier in the United States Army, I've dished out my share of
Marine-bashing jokes and comments, but I would hope that as representatives
of the American military the Marines implicated would show more restraint
and control.

However, the most absolutely important thing to remember in this situation
is that these men HAVE NOT been proven guilty. All that exists right now is
rumor and innuendo. There is no proof, no convictions. Right now, there
isn't even a trial. Last night I picked up a copy of the Stars and Stripes
with a headline about the Haditha investigations. The first line of the
article reads as follows:

"Marines from Camp Pendleton wantonly killed unarmed Iraqi civilians,
including women and children, and then tried to cover up the slayings in the
insurgent stronghold of Haditha, Iraq, military investigations have found."

The Stars and Stripes draws its articles from a number of different sources;
this particular article came from the Los Angeles Times and was written by
Tony Perry. Look at the phrasing of that sentence. In truth, the
investigations have found nothing of the sort. They've discovered evidence
and eyewitness testimony that suggests several Marines MAY BE guilty of
misconduct, up to and including murder. The truth is, we'll probably never
know what happened in Haditha, no matter what the investigations and the
trials uncover. The Marines involved were seeing through a haze of anger and
loss. The Iraqi locals were seeing through the chaos of a bomb going off in
their community.

Whatever the NCIS uncovers, the rights of these men must be protected. Even
under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, the military's judicial system,
suspects are considered innocent until proven guilty. The fact that the
media, and even a former Marine congressman are already talking about these
men as if they're guilty is disgusting and just plain wrong. O.J. Simpson,
arguably the most guilty innocent man in recent history, was treated with
more respect during his circus of a trial than these Marines are being given
now. They are men in uniform, men who have sacrificed more than most ever
will in the name of the United States. They deserve our respect until such
time as a verdict is reached which calls that respect into question.

So that's my position on the Haditha investigation. If the Marines are found
guilty, I believe they will be punished accordingly. If they are found
innocent, I believe they will be outcast by the media as benefactors of a
cover up. Unfortunately, all of these men's careers are basically over no
matter what the findings. The anti-war, anti-Bush journalists have seen to that.

Circular Logic

On Sunday I mentioned that the German magazine Der Spiegel had an interview with the president of Iran coming out. No link was available at that time. I have one now. And, frankly, Ahmadinejad comes across as even less in touch with reality than the preliminary reports indicated. The first part of the interview is the biggest exercise in circular logic I have ever seen.

SPIEGEL: Denying the Holocaust is punishable in Germany. Are you indifferent when confronted with so much outrage?

Ahmadinejad: I know that DER SPIEGEL is a respected magazine. But I don't know whether it is possible for you to publish the truth about the Holocaust. Are you permitted to write everything about it?

SPIEGEL: Of course we are entitled to write about the findings of the past 60 years' historical research. In our view there is no doubt that the Germans – unfortunately – bear the guilt for the murder of 6 million Jews.

Ahmadinejad: Well, then we have stirred up a very concrete discussion. We are posing two very clear questions. The first is: Did the Holocaust actually take place? You answer this question in the affirmative. So, the second question is: Whose fault was it? The answer to that has to be found in Europe and not in Palestine. It is perfectly clear: If the Holocaust took place in Europe, one also has to find the answer to it in Europe.

On the other hand, if the Holocaust didn't take place, why then did this regime of occupation …

SPIEGEL: … You mean the state of Israel…

Ahmadinejad: … come about? Why do the European countries commit themselves to defending this regime? Permit me to make one more point. We are of the opinion that, if an historical occurrence conforms to the truth, this truth will be revealed all the more clearly if there is more research into it and more discussion about it.

SPIEGEL: That has long since happened in Germany.

Ahmadinejad: We don't want to confirm or deny the Holocaust. We oppose every type of crime against any people. But we want to know whether this crime actually took place or not. If it did, then those who bear the responsibility for it have to be punished, and not the Palestinians. Why isn't research into a deed that occurred 60 years ago permitted? After all, other historical occurrences, some of which lie several thousand years in the past, are open to research, and even the governments support this.

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, with all due respect, the Holocaust occurred, there were concentration camps, there are dossiers on the extermination of the Jews, there has been a great deal of research, and there is neither the slightest doubt about the Holocaust nor about the fact - we greatly regret this - that the Germans are responsible for it. If we may now add one remark: the fate of the Palestinians is an entirely different issue, and this brings us into the present.

Ahmadinejad: No, no, the roots of the Palestinian conflict must be sought in history. The Holocaust and Palestine are directly connected with one another. And if the Holocaust actually occurred, then you should permit impartial groups from the whole world to research this. Why do you restrict the research to a certain group? Of course, I don't mean you, but rather the European governments.

SPIEGEL: Are you still saying that the Holocaust is just "a myth?"

Ahmadinejad: I will only accept something as truth if I am actually convinced of it.

SPIEGEL: Even though no Western scholars harbor any doubt about the Holocaust?

Ahmadinejad: But there are two opinions on this in Europe. One group of scholars or persons, most of them politically motivated, say the Holocaust occurred. Then there is the group of scholars who represent the opposite position and have therefore been imprisoned for the most part. Hence, an impartial group has to come together to investigate and to render an opinion on this very important subject, because the clarification of this issue will contribute to the solution of global problems. Under the pretext of the Holocaust, a very strong polarization has taken place in the world and fronts have been formed. It would therefore be very good if an international and impartial group looked into the matter in order to clarify it once and for all. Normally, governments promote and support the work of researchers on historical events and do not put them in prison.

I have to hand it to the interviewer, he hung right in there. But Ahmadinejad is completely impervious to logic or reason. Houston, we have a problem.

UPDATE: Commentary from Der Spiegel. Others: All Things Beautiful, Captain's Quarters, Chequer-Board, Liberty and Justice and Hugh Hewitt.

News From Iran

Once again, if you want to get information on what is happening inside Iran, you cannot look to our so-called main stream media. There appears to be complete silence about it in the major newspapers and other media. Once again, Jim over at Gateway Pundit has an astonishing roundup posted with links and photos from a lot of sources. Jim points out the obvious:

SHAME ON THE WESTERN MEDIA! When 200 Islamist thugs are bused in from across the country by the Islamic Republic to hold a rally outside the Danish Embassy the western news medias (BBC, CNN, AFP, Reuters…) are quick to cover the story live on TV making it seem like Iranians are crazy fanatics!

When tens of thousands of Iranians come out denouncing that very same regime that is doing these kind of acts, condemning them for the oppressive rule!!! EVERYTHING GOES SILENT!

I guess there's not enough of an anti-American component to warrant coverage by the MSM.

Sending In Reserves

The Washington Post is reporting that US commanders are committing most of the combat reserve force it has in the Iraqi theater to try to quell al Qaeda directed violence in Anbar province.

The U.S. military said Monday it was deploying the main reserve fighting force for Iraq, a full 3,500-member armored brigade, as emergency reinforcements for the embattled western province of Anbar, where a surge of violence linked to the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq has severely damaged efforts to turn Sunni Arab tribal leaders against the insurgency.

The insurgents have assassinated 11 tribal leaders in the Ramadi area since the end of last year, when Sunni sheiks in the city began open cooperation with the U.S. military. That alliance was heralded by U.S. commanders as a sign of a major split between Sunni insurgents and the larger Sunni community of western Iraq.

Part of the problem is that the US looks like it is in internal disarray, which encourages our enemies. I'd frankly like to see more support for our troops among Democrats in particular and less attention being given to the cut and run proponents. I think there is a broad consensus that we have to finish what we started in Iraq. This is not the time to play politics with the lives of our people who are deployed over there.

"We hope to get rid of al-Qaeda, which is a huge burden on the city. Unfortunately, Zarqawi's fist is stronger than the Americans'," said one Sunni sheik, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of insurgent retaliation. He was referring to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, an umbrella group for many of the foreign and local resistance fighters in Iraq. Local Sunni leaders often insist that the most violent insurgent attacks are by foreign fighters, not Iraqi Sunnis.

In Ramadi, "Zarqawi is the one who is in control," the sheik said, speaking to a Washington Post special correspondent in Ramadi. "He kills anyone who goes in and out of the U.S. base. We have stopped meetings with the Americans, because, frankly speaking, we have lost confidence in the U.S. side, as they can't protect us."

Another sheik, Bashir Abdul Qadir al-Kubaisi of the Kubaisat tribe in Ramadi, expressed similar views. "Today, there is no tribal sheik or a citizen who dares to go to the city hall or the U.S. base, because Zarqawi issued a statement ordering his men to kill anyone seen leaving the base or city hall," he said.

"We are very upset. But being upset is better than mourning the death of a sheik or tribal leader," Kubaisi said. "Zarqawi has imposed himself on us. We started thinking of appeasing Zarqawi and his group, because rejecting them means death."

Hopefully, the reserves will drive Zarqawi out of business. It's interesting how he appears to have been pushed out of Baghdad.

The NYT On Pelosi

The New York Times has an article on Nancy Pelosi this morning that says both Democrats and Republicans are delighted with the prospect of "Speaker Pelosi". For very different reasons, of course.

"She ought to be a big component of the fall campaign," said Ed Rogers, a Republican strategist and lobbyist. "There are some Democrats who make really good bad guys."

Ms. Pelosi, the California Democrat and House minority leader, lends herself to easy caricature by Republicans. She is an unapologetic liberal, with a voting record to match (the Republican National Committee chairman, Ken Mehlman, said she was neither a "New Democrat" nor an "Old Democrat" but a "prehistoric Democrat"). She is wealthy (married to an investment banker, she has assets listed at more than $16 million). She represents San Francisco, which Republicans love to invoke as a hotbed of counterculture decadence and extremism.

"Is America ready for Nancy Pelosi's Contract With San Francisco?" asked Representative Ric Keller, Republican of Florida, posing a question that, one imagines, could form the basis of many Republican advertisements this fall.

Democrats may have some reservations about Ms. Pelosi, but they are largely loyal, seeing her as an earnest champion of the party's beliefs and as an effective leader.

The Times does mention her having a bit of a problem with how she presents herself and how she has appeared to be counting chickens a bit to early. Overall, the piece is definitely carrying water for Pelosi, trying to make he look less threatening and praising her political skill.

Me, I'm not so sure about that skill. I think she is highly effective at keeping her party in line, but somewhat less effective at appealing across party lines. She also has a tin ear. She is still trying to use the culture of corruption meme, which I really think is an appallingly bad idea given the antics of Representative Jefferson and others. She also says in the interview that Tom DeLay is a friend of hers that she worked well with but that he's "corrupt".  She doesn't appear to even notice exactly how that sounds.

Well, it'll be interesting for the next five months or so, that's for sure.

Sometimes You Just Shake Your Head

Some days you start reading the news and find yourself shaking your head.

Reid Accepted Free Boxing Tickets While a Related Bill Was Pending

Senate Democratic Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) accepted free ringside tickets from the Nevada Athletic Commission to three professional boxing matches while that state agency was trying to influence him on federal regulation of boxing.

Reid took the free seats for Las Vegas fights between 2003 and 2005 as he was pressing legislation to increase government oversight of the sport, including the creation of a federal boxing commission that Nevada's agency feared might usurp its authority.

I have noticed Harry's been a lot less vocal about the whole "culture of corruption" thing. It only gets worse in appearance, too. John McCain insisted on paying for tickets to fights he attended with Reid while another Senator, John Ensign (R-Nev) recused himself from the bill due to family ties to the fight industry.

It might be chicken feed in the great scheme of things, but an appearance of impropriety can pretty well knock you off the moral high ground. Right, Harry?

UPDATE: Scot Ott is sounding the alert on the growing pandemic. Be afraid, be very afraid!

On The Counting Of Chickens

There is an old rule of thumb in engineering that goes like this: on any given project, 90% of the project is completed with 10% of the work. The other 10% to complete the project takes the other 90% of your effort. Another manifestation of that rule of thumb is the old saying that the devil is in the details.

A while back I noted that some Democrats appeared to be counting chickens a bit on the early side. In fact, I commented about it several times. Today, I read this little gem from the Associated Press. Some politicians have visions of landslides dancing in their heads.

Republicans are three steps from a November shellacking _ each a grim possibility if habitually divided Democrats get their acts together.

First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections.

That would sting Republicans, who trail badly in national polls.

Second step: Voters must be so angry at Washington and politics in general that an anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality sweeps the nation.

That would wound Republicans, the majority party.

Third step: Americans must view the elections as a referendum on President Bush and the GOP-led Congress, siding with Democrats in a symbolic vote against the Iraq war, rising gas prices, economic insecurity and the nagging sense that the nation is on the wrong track.

That would destroy Republicans, sweeping them from power in one or both chambers and making Bush a lame duck.

Less than six months out, most Democratic and Republican strategists say the first two elements are in place for now _ a national, anti- incumbent mind-set _ and all signs point to the third.

Still, many Democrats worry that their party has not closed the deal.

Five or six months is an eternity in politics. Things may not be quite what they seem right now. A lot of the polls are using badly skewed sampling (I've written about that repeatedly) and some of the antics by both parties are damaging everyone. So there's an element of whistling past the graveyard in this article. The Democrats who are expressing a bit of nervousness right now are probably seeing that things are not quite the lock it would appear.

Chuck Schumer says this: "I think if the election were held today, there is a 50-50 chance of taking the House and the Senate and a very high percentage of gaining a significant number of seats," Schumer said.

"But things change."

Yes, they do, and I think any poultry counting is probably not a good idea just yet.

Five or six months is an eternity in politics. Things may not be quite what they seem right now. A lot of the polls are using badly skewed sampling (I've written about that repeatedly) and some of the antics by both parties are damaging everyone. So there's an element of whistling past the graveyard in this article. The Democrats who are expressing a bit of nervousness right now are probably seeing that things are not quite the lock it would appear.

Chuck Schumer says this: "I think if the election were held today, there is a 50-50 chance of taking the House and the Senate and a very high percentage of gaining a significant number of seats," Schumer said.

"But things change."

Yes, they do, and I think any poultry counting is probably not a good idea just yet.