Essential Functions

There's an old saying engineers use; "if everything is a priority, nothing is a priority". I've heard that many, many times through the years when trying to arrange work during plant outages. In the early days of the nuclear industry months and months spent with the unit offline for a refueling outage were the norm. As planning got better and better, the outage length got shorter and shorter. Some refuels are now accomplished in weeks rather than months. The same learning process has gradually improved emergency drills that are held on a regular basis.

Which leads us to today's subject, an article in the Washington Post by William Arkin detailing what he sees as shortcomings in the Federal government's plans to provide continuity of government in case of a nuclear attack or other disaster.

On Monday, June 19, about 4,000 government workers representing more than 50 federal agencies from the State Department to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will say goodbye to their families and set off for dozens of classified emergency facilities stretching from the Maryland and Virginia suburbs to the foothills of the Alleghenies. They will take to the bunkers in an "evacuation" that my sources describe as the largest "continuity of government" exercise ever conducted, a drill intended to prepare the U.S. government for an event even more catastrophic than the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The exercise is the latest manifestation of an obsession with government survival that has been a hallmark of the Bush administration since 9/11, a focus of enormous and often absurd time, money and effort that has come to echo the worst follies of the Cold War. The vast secret operation has updated the duck-and-cover scenarios of the 1950s with state-of-the-art technology — alerts and updates delivered by pager and PDA, wireless priority service, video teleconferencing, remote backups — to ensure that "essential" government functions continue undisrupted should a terrorist's nuclear bomb go off in downtown Washington.

But for all the BlackBerry culture, the outcome is still old-fashioned black and white: We've spent hundreds of millions of dollars on alternate facilities, data warehouses and communications, yet no one can really foretell what would happen to the leadership and functioning of the federal government in a catastrophe.

I can tell you from experience, learning how to plan effectively for complex operations takes a lot of time and effort. It is not accomplished in a few years even with a dedicated staff. So even though I understand Arkin's upset with the progress, the realist in me says these things take time. He's quite right that the agencies involved haven't figured out what really is vital, but that also comes with time and drills. Is progress as fast as I'd like to see it? Not really. Do I understand how these things take time to accomplish? Yes.

Continuity programs began in the early 1950s, when the threat of nuclear war moved the administration of President Harry S. Truman to begin planning for emergency government functions and civil defense. Evacuation bunkers were built, and an incredibly complex and secretive shadow government program was created.

At its height, the grand era of continuity boasted the fully operational Mount Weather, a civilian bunker built along the crest of Virginia's Blue Ridge, to which most agency heads would evacuate; the Greenbrier hotel complex and bunker in West Virginia, where Congress would shelter; and Raven Rock, or Site R, a national security bunker bored into granite along the Pennsylvania-Maryland border near Camp David, where the Joint Chiefs of Staff would command a protracted nuclear war. Special communications networks were built, and evacuation and succession procedures were practiced continually.

When the Soviet Union crumbled, the program became a Cold War curiosity: Then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney ordered Raven Rock into caretaker status in 1991. The Greenbrier bunker was shuttered and a 30-year-old special access program was declassified three years later.

Then came the terrorist attacks of the mid-1990s and the looming Y2K rollover, and suddenly continuity wasn't only for nuclear war anymore. On Oct. 21, 1998, President Bill Clinton signed Presidential Decision Directive 67, "Enduring Constitutional Government and Continuity of Government Operations." No longer would only the very few elite leaders responsible for national security be covered. Instead, every single government department and agency was directed to see to it that they could resume critical functions within 12 hours of a warning, and keep their operations running at emergency facilities for up to 30 days. FEMA was put in charge of this broad new program.

On 9/11, the program was put to the test — and failed. Not on the national security side: Vice President Cheney and others in the national security leadership were smoothly whisked away from the capital following procedures overseen by the Pentagon and the White House Military Office. But like the mass of Washingtonians, officials from other agencies found themselves virtually on their own, unsure of where to go or what to do, or whom to contact for the answers.

Obvious here is that the failures in the process started during the Clinton years. The failures of the program on 9/11 can not be laid at the feet of Bush since he had not been in office long enough to have dealt with issues in the program. After 9/11 it appears as if some planning and progress has been made with several drills conducted - which revealed shortcomings in the program. This is the purpose of drills, I might add. It reveals what you got wrong in your plans so you can address the shortcomings. It is an iterative process.

Actually, if the government really wants to make progress in emergency planning they could do worse than to hire some planners from the nuclear industry. They already have been through a lot of the learning curve of planning complex operations and managing emergency situations.

Just a thought.

Canadian Terrorist Plot Roundup

Protein Wisdom has an extensive roundup on all the developments in the Canadian jihadi busts. I won't even try to gather up all the linkages he has.

The British Members Of al Qaeda

The Sunday Times reports that British authorities believe as many as 150 young Britons have traveled to Iraq to join the terrorist insurgency.

UP TO 150 Islamic radicals have travelled from Britain to Iraq to join up with a “British brigade” that has been established by Al-Qaeda leaders to fight coalition forces.

Senior security sources say leaders of the Iraqi insurgency have set up a “foreign legion” composed entirely of westerners to fight alongside the insurgents in the war against British and American forces. Some are preparing to carry out suicide attacks while others have received basic combat training for attacks on western troops The so-called “British brigade” is said to be operating under the direct command of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Members of the unit are thought to be in the Sunni triangle, a combat zone and Al-Qaeda hotbed west of Baghdad.

The flow of young Muslim men from western Europe to Iraq has increased dramatically in the past two years. The “pipeline” of suspected terrorists is being fuelled by growing resentment about American and British policy and scandals such as the mistreatment of inmates at the Abu Ghraib prison.

A senior security source, confirming that between 120 and 150 Britons had travelled to Iraq, said there was concern that the flow was increasing: “The really worrying thing is that this has become a movement that people believe in. It’s not simply a matter of them joining a terrorist organisation.”

The latest demonstration of the trend came 10 days ago when anti-terrorist police arrested eight men in a series of raids in Manchester, London and Merseyside.

Police said publicly that the men were being held on suspicion of encouraging and financing Al-Qaeda’s terrorist operations abroad. But privately Whitehall officials said they believed that there may have been links to the training and recruitment of volunteers for suicide missions in Iraq.

Earlier this year Charles Clarke, the former home secretary, imposed a control order on an unnamed terror suspect who had been prevented from boarding a plane at Manchester airport.

Security sources say dozens of cases have been unearthed in recent months where suspected would-be suicide bombers have been stopped at British airports while they were en route to join the insurgency.

One said: “Greater Manchester police frequently interdict individuals whom they believe are going to Iraq and other locations in order to carry out suicide attacks. Conventional charges, such as passport irregularities, are used to prevent them leaving the country. But this leaves police with the problem of returning potential suicide bombers to the Manchester community.”

That's a real problem. If you stop them using minor generic charges, they end up back on the streets in a short time. If you don't stop them they go to Iraq and kill people.

Isn’t that interesting?

Ace over at Ace of Spades HQ notes a dog that didn't bark. At all. It's interesting who actually mentions terrorism these days and who remains silent when a big story breaks.

This Spud’s For You

You just have to love urban legends. Especially ones that keep going and going and going even when they are, well, dumb. A Miami, Florida man was arrested following a domestic dispute. He had threatened to shoot the woman who he had a child with with a pistol. Not just any pistol, either, but one equipped with a silencer. Well, not really a silencer. Actually a hollowed out potato.

It may be a novel way to create potato salad, but a potato will not "silence" a pistol shot.

During a domestic dispute, Thompson carved a hole in a potato with a spoon, stuck the barrel of his gun inside and threatened to shoot the mother of his child, Miami-Dade police said Friday.

He even explained to her that no one would hear the shot.

Thompson, 23, was arrested and charged late last month with false imprisonment, aggravated assault and battery.

His next court date will be June 15.

He couldn't be reached for comment.

The vegetable, while rich in carbs, does not make an effective silencer, police say.

The myth dates back to mob murders of the 1920s and has persisted through movies and word of mouth.

''It was fine in Dick Tracy, but in real life, it's not true,'' said Miami-Dade Sgt. Bob Hoelscher, a longtime firearms technician who is not involved in the case.

The sound of a gunshot can be suppressed somewhat if the gun is low-caliber and the cartridge is weak enough, Hoelscher said.

But it usually makes a mess.

Detectives seized a 9mm Ruger pistol from Thompson.

''You're going to have potato salad 360 degrees from the muzzle,'' Hoelscher said.

The myth that just keeps giving. The article goes on to detail a number of cases from all over where the potato silencer was used. There's even an attempt to convict someone of using a silencer (which adds a 25 year kicker to the sentence in Federal court). The judge set that one aside. "Silencing" a gun takes some specialized knowledge and possession of a silencer can get you a surprise visit from the BATF.

Thompson did not shoot the woman, fortunately, but did strike her.

If you are intent on trying out the urban myth, we suggest a few alternatives such as this and this particular way to turn potatoes deadly.

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