US-Russia Nuclear Deal?

The Washington Post is reporting that the Bush administration may be about to announce a deal with Russia on civilian nuclear program cooperation. As the Post points out, this is likely to be highly unpopular with a broad spectrum of groups and political factions, so the question becomes: why do it?

President Bush has decided to permit extensive U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia for the first time, administration officials said yesterday, reversing decades of bipartisan policy in a move that would be worth billions of dollars to Moscow but could provoke an uproar in Congress.

Bush resisted such a move for years, insisting that Russia first stop building a nuclear power station for Iran near the Persian Gulf. But U.S. officials have shifted their view of Russia's collaboration with Iran and concluded that President Vladimir Putin has become a more constructive partner in trying to pressure Tehran to give up any aspirations for nuclear weapons.

I'm not sure what to think about this deal. On the one hand, I am highly uncomfortable with what's been going on in Russia recently and their rather obvious alliance with China to block a lot of moves against Iran. On the other hand, one cannot help but wonder if this is exactly what the Russians have been aiming for and if this is not the quid pro quo for Russia abandoning their blocking tactics.

In the administration's view, both sides would benefit. A nuclear cooperation agreement would clear the way for Russia to import and store thousands of tons of spent nuclear fuel from U.S.-supplied reactors around the world, a lucrative business so far blocked by Washington. It could be used as an incentive to win more Russian cooperation on Iran. And it would be critical to Bush's plan to spread civilian nuclear energy to power-hungry countries because Russia would provide a place to send the used radioactive material.

At the same time, it could draw significant opposition from across the ideological spectrum, according to analysts who follow the issue. Critics wary of Putin's authoritarian course view it as rewarding Russia even though Moscow refuses to support sanctions against Iran. Others fearful of Russia's record of handling nuclear material see it as a reckless move that endangers the environment.

"You will have all the anti-Russian right against it, you will have all the anti-nuclear left against it, and you will have the Russian democracy center concerned about it too," said Matthew Bunn, a nuclear specialist at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

If this is the deal needed to make Russia back off on Iran, it could very well be a smart move. It will still require significant controls, which one hopes would be built into the agreement to be negotiated. I suspect this will become a huge issue, very quickly.