More On Lebanon
David Ignatius, in today's Washington Post is about halfway onto the same page I presented in the previous post. Unfortunately, he can't quite make it all the way.
Israeli and American doctrine is premised on the idea that military force will deter adversaries. But as more force has been used in recent years, the deterrent value has inevitably gone down. That's the inner spring of this crisis: The Iranians (and their clients in Hezbollah and Hamas) watch the American military mired in Iraq and see weakness. They are emboldened rather than intimidated. The same is true for the Israelis in Gaza. Rather than reinforcing the image of strength, the use of force (short of outright, pulverizing invasion and occupation) has encouraged contempt.
He's got it right that Iran is seeing weakness. What he leaves out is that the reason they are seeing it is because of the absolutely relentless focus of the media, both in the US and abroad, on trying to paint the worst possible picture of the war and of the US itself. The media's relentless attempts to undermine the administration. The media's relentless presentation to the world that America is in internal disarray. The media and it's willingness to publish details of secret programs thereby destroying the effectiveness of the programs doesn't help a whole lot either.
The first is that in countering aggression, international solidarity and legitimacy matter. In responding to the Lebanon crisis, the United States should work closely with its allies at the Group of Eight summit and the United Nations. Iran and its proxies would like nothing more than to isolate America and Israel. They would like nothing less than a strong, international coalition of opposition.
A second point — obvious from Gaza to Beirut to Baghdad — is that the power of non-state actors is magnified when there is no strong central government. That may sound like a truism, but responding wisely can require some creative diplomacy. The way to blunt Hamas is to build a strong Palestinian Authority that delivers benefits for the Palestinian people. The way to curb Hezbollah is to build up the Lebanese government and army. One way to boost the Lebanese government (and deflate Hezbollah) would be to negotiate the return of the Israeli-occupied territory known as Shebaa Farms. That chance is lost for now, but the Bush administration should find other ways to enhance Siniora's authority.
Much the same as what I concluded earlier. The important thing is that the G-8 would be a good place to start, but I honestly do not believe the UN would be worth involving. NATO could be the right tool and could force Europe to step up instead of mindlessly criticizing all things American.
A final obvious lesson is that in an open, interconnected world, public opinion matters. This is a tricky battlefield for an unpopular America and Israel, but not an impossible one. To fight the Long War, America and Israel have to get out of the devil suit in global public opinion. For a generation, America maintained a role as honest broker between Israel and the Arabs. The Bush administration should work hard to refurbish that role.
In the Lebanon crisis we have a terrifying glimpse of the future: Iran and its radical allies are pushing toward war. That's the chilling reality behind this week's events. On Tuesday the Iranians spurned an American offer of talks on their nuclear program; on Wednesday their Hezbollah proxy committed what Israel rightly called "an act of war." The radicals want to lure America and Israel deeper into the killing ground, confident that they have the staying power to prevail. We should not play their game.
Public opinion does matter – and it's time for the press to stop playing a negative role in the process. We in the US and the rest of the West must pull together and an adversarial media is not helping. If the press could refrain from their automatic "blame Bush-blame America" stance it might help us all survive.
The press should be taking a very hard look at what it has been doing to help create the situation that is now happening. If it keeps on along the same path, war will come.
War will come.
UPDATE: Frau Budgie at Red Hot Cuppa Politics has some Lebanese reaction that asks Israel to hit Hezbollah harder and destroy the terrorist infrastructure.
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Flopping Aces » Blog Archive » The Latest On The Israeli Front — July 14, 2006 @ 9:51 am
By Jim,MtnViewCA,USA, July 14, 2006 @ 10:23 am
Amen.