Overplaying?
I've asked if, this time, Iran had finally overplayed it's hand with it's machinations against Israel and the West. Youssef Ibrahim, a former Middle East correspondent for The New York Times and energy editor for The Wall Street Journal, asks the same question in USA Today.
Speaking in an unusually blunt tone, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain openly rejected what they described as unilateral "adventurism," telling both groups that they are on their own vis-à-vis Israel. More important, indications are surfacing that a long-silent Arab majority has had enough of being hijacked by extremists in its midst.
In a meeting of its 22 foreign ministers Saturday in Cairo, the League of Arab States did not mince words. "Behavior undertaken by some groups in apparent safeguarding of Arab interests does in fact harm those interests, allowing Israel and other parties from outside the Arab world (read Iran) to wreak havoc with the security and safety of all Arab countries."
The outburst has been long coming, building up ever since the 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution, which poured political militancy into the red-hot religious rivalries between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Iran championed the oppressed Shiites as well as repressed revolutionaries in the Arab world. It also has lent a hand to jihadist Islamic fundamentalists, launching savage wars against their governments and societies in Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia since the early 1980s:
It really is quite interesting that there has been a pretty muted response from the Arab world about Israel compared to past outbreaks, isn't it? Even in Lebanon, it appears that Hezbollah is being blamed as much as Israel is.
What frightens the Arabs is that Iran has an impressive network already in place to do its deeds. Even before the United States conveniently dispensed with Iraq - which was the major bulwark against Persians - Iran had planted seeds throughout the region. Hezbollah was formed in the 1980s as Iran's private militia in Lebanon. Shiites loyal to Iran were dispensed to Iraq. And assorted jihadists spread to Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia.
At first, the Iranian motive was self-defense of its young revolution, but by the 1990s its ambitions graduated to regional hegemony. The election last year of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president signaled Phase 2 of the Iranian march, further alarming normally placid Arab majorities who appear to be silent no more.
The collective resistance spoken by Arab presidents, emirs and kings at the highest levels is echoed below among ordinary people. In Lebanon, for instance, it is evident that the people in the streets are blaming Israel, of course, but also Hezbollah for today's crisis.
So, has Iran overplayed? It may very well be that they have. I linked to Mohammed's comments at Iraq the Model earlier, and it certainly sounded as if Iran is being blamed for all the uproar right now. Maybe this will turn out quite a bit differently than Iran planned.
By crosspatch, Wednesday, 19 July , 2006 @ 6:21 pm
I believe there is an important piece of information that is being overlooked by most of the open source media. Iran is the world’s second largest exporter of oil in the world. According to CIA, Iran’s oil exports in 2004 were about 2.5 million barrels a day. At today’s price of around $70 a barrel, that is $175 million a day or a little over $5 billion a month.
Now, it is very obvious that they are not spending their money on infrastructure. Tehran looks nothing at all like Dubai. Where is all that money going? Again, according to CIA: “Relatively high oil prices in recent years have enabled Iran to amass some $40 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but have not eased economic hardships such as high unemployment and inflation.”
Now we read today where Israel drops 23 tons of explosives on a Beirut bunker built by … IRAN! Ya think that could be where the money is going? And how many more have they built? Do they have their own little copy of Cheyenne Mountain in the hills between the Bekaa and Syria? I would have to assume they would. Iran has been on a bunker building spree in their own country too and there has been speculation they are getting engineering guidance from the mother of all bunker builders, the North Koreans. Some of you who are older might remember the discovery in South Korea of tunnels dug by North Korea that were basically multilane highways carved through mountains with only the face of the mountain remaining that could be blown at the start of a war and then used to move huge amounts of materials through in a short period of time. Those people have talent when it comes to digging.
Just exactly where is Iran spending all this oil money? Inquiring minds want to know.