Blue Crab Boulevard

Myth Versus Reality

David Ignatius of the Washington Post makes a few good points and more than a few that are questionable.

The challenge for the Bush administration as the Lebanon war explodes into its second week is just that — to keep faith with Siniora and his Cedar Revolution, even as it stands by its close ally Israel. This isn't simply a question of appearances and public diplomacy. Unless Siniora's government can be strengthened, there is little hope for achieving the U.S. and Israeli goal of bringing Hezbollah's guerrillas under lasting control.

"America's role is to energize a political outcome that helps to satisfy Israeli military objectives by other means," says one administration official. The problem is that the American diplomatic timetable is so slow that by the time a cease-fire is reached — more than a week off, by U.S. estimates — Lebanon may be too broken to be put back together anytime soon.

Administration officials rightly insist that returning to the status quo in Lebanon would be a mistake. After last year's triumph of forcing a withdrawal of Syrian troops, Siniora's government was struggling (and largely failing) to establish a viable nation. This nation-building effort was hamstrung by Hezbollah's insistence that it maintain what amounted to a state within a state.

Quite right. Hezbollah completely controls Southern Lebanon and that area is off limits for the Lebanese Army. There are whole sections of Beirut where Lebanese police or soldiers are not allowed. The status quo in Lebanon is not a recipe for success.

The administration's strategy is to let Israel do the dirty work of breaking Hezbollah and then move in a foreign "stabilization force" to bolster the Lebanese army. Once Israel has pushed the guerrillas north, this international force would help the Lebanese army deploy to the southern border with Israel and the eastern border with Syria. The plan is for a beefed-up successor to the existing United Nations force in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL.

The administration's informal deadline for getting a U.N. mandate for this new international force is July 31, when UNIFIL's current mandate expires. The French now command that force, and the United States hopes they can remain in that role, with new troops coming from such robust military powers as Italy, Turkey and Canada.

UNAFIL is, quite frankly, a joke. They can, as they have demonstrated repeatedly, do nothing to stop the Hezbollah from doing whatever they pleased in Lebanon. So to count on them is wishful thinking at best.

Siniora has privately warned the Bush administration that by bombing so many targets in Lebanon, Israel is undermining its own strategic goals. Lebanese are angry with Hezbollah for starting the war by kidnapping Israeli soldiers, and most want to see the militia under government control. But Siniora has asked why the Israelis are hitting Lebanese airports, ports, roads, villages and other targets that primarily affect civilians. And he has criticized attacks on the Lebanese army, which even the Israelis say is the key to long-run stability and security.

I do not understand Israel's targeting, nor do I think I know enough to judge whether it is right or wrong, despite the opinions of people like Mr. Ignatius. Example: We hear a lot that Israel is "targeting civilian" areas/homes/sectors, etc. But are they? Are the areas being hit under the control of Lebanon? Or are they areas where Hezbollah holds sway? Because the picture changes depending on the answer.

Supporting Israel and Lebanon at the same time is a tricky task — especially at a moment when the bombs are flying between one nation and the other. Unless the administration moves quickly to demonstrate that it supports the Siniora government, and not just Israel, its larger strategy for defusing the conflict may begin to unravel. Administration officials recognize that a stable Lebanon cannot be achieved by military action alone. But for now, all the world sees is Hezbollah rockets and Israeli bombs.

Do I think Lebanon should be free? Yes, I do. Do I think Hezbollah Should be ejected from Lebanon. Yes I do. Do I think opinion pieces like Mr. Ignatius' help?

No.

Media, War | Gaius Thursday, 20 July , 2006

By v, Friday, 21 July , 2006 @ 6:08 am

Krauthammer and other neo-cons underestimated what they derided as the “Arab Street” in Iraq, no pretty much the core of the domestic elements of the insurgency. Are Hezbollah tossers? Duh. But are you seriously going to even suggest at this point that their “defeat” by Israel in the short run isn’t really going to serve as a recruiting drive in the long- or even mid-term? Umm–Iraq insurgency anyone?
By Gaius, Friday, 21 July , 2006 @ 6:25 am

How much of the terror in Iraq is being directed out of Iran right now? I’d venture that it a substantial amount, if not mostly.
By The Ugly American, Friday, 21 July , 2006 @ 7:42 am

Great advice V. Don’t fight the war or the enemy will get really mad.
By Tano, Friday, 21 July , 2006 @ 9:14 am

Interesting that Gaius, who has an opinion on every matter that comes along, many times a day, suddenly is seized with hesitation about stating the obvious, because, I guess, the obvious reality exposes the shallowness and bias in his thinking.

Israel has murdered over 300 Lebaneses so far - with less than a dozen being members of Hezballah. They have targeted the infrastructure of Lebanon, not of Hezballah in particular - they were quite upfront about this from day one - claiming that the taking of their soldiers was an act of war by Lebanon - thus Lebanon itself is their “justified’ target. They have bombed airports, roads, power plants, apartment buildings, milk processing factories etc. etc.

The notion of “ejecting” Hezballah is absurd Gaius, and you really need to start educating yourself about the reality of the situation insted of just repeating propaganda in your usual kneejerk manner. Ejecting Hezballah from southern Lebanon would be like trying to eject, with bombs, the Republican party from the American south. You can bomb all the buildings and try to kill the leaders, but the party is an organic, grassroots entity that lives in the hearts of its members. What you are talking about is ejecting the southern Lebanese. And, as I pointed out to you a few days ago, the Israelis couldnt do that in 18 years of militarily occupying the area - in fact they made the resistance stronger.

Did you see that little piece in Drudge last night where the Lebanese defense minister supposedly said that if the Israelis send in ground troops, that the Lebanese Army would join up with Hezballah to defend the homeland?

Final point. Dont be greedy and keep my insightful posts to yourself.
By Gaius, Friday, 21 July , 2006 @ 9:30 am

You’re banned here for a good reason, Tano. But I let this one through only because it shows your shallow bias, which you like to accuse me of having.

Keep in mind who is setting up roadblocks to keep civilians in combat zones. Keep in mind who is hiding rockets inside civilian structures, making them legitimate targets. Keep in mind who started the war.