Mandatory Hit Piece

The New York Times has become, if nothing else, predictable. If anything, anywhere at any time could be interpreted as a good thing for the Bush administration, the NYT will publish a hit piece. This time it is John Bolton in the Times' gunsight.

In rcent months, as one international crisis followed another, John R. Bolton has fulfilled the role of the United Nations’ most influential ambassador at full strength, firmly articulating the position of the United States government regarding Iran, North Korea and the Middle East.

His performance won over at least one crucial critic, Senator George V. Voinovich, Republican of Ohio. Mr. Voinovich’s opposition a year ago forced Mr. Bolton to take the job as a presidential recess appointment, an arrangement that expires at the end of this Congress in January.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has scheduled a hearing this Thursday on Mr. Bolton’s renomination, and a floor vote could come in September. “My observations are that while Bolton is not perfect, he has demonstrated his ability, especially in recent months, to work with others and follow the president’s lead by working multilaterally,” Mr. Voinovich said in a Washington Post opinion article on Thursday in which he confirmed that he would vote for Mr. Bolton.

He said he was impressed by how Mr. Bolton, whom he had suspected of “go it alone” tendencies, frequently invoked “my instructions” from Washington.

The Bush administration is not popular at the United Nations, where it is often perceived as disdainful of diplomacy, and its policies as heedless of the effects on others and single-minded in the willful assertion of American interests. By extension, then, many diplomats say they see Mr. Bolton as a stand-in for the arrogance of the administration itself.

But diplomats focus particularly on an area with less evidence of instructions from Washington and more of Mr. Bolton’s personal touch, the mission that he has described as his priority: overhauling the institution’s discredited management. Envoys say he has in fact endangered that effort by alienating traditional allies. They say he combatively asserts American leadership, contests procedures at the mannerly, rules-bound United Nations and then shrugs off the organization when it does not follow his lead.

Six ambassadors separately offered similar accounts of an incident in June that they said captured the situation. All were from nations in Europe, the Pacific and Latin America that consider themselves close allies of the United States, and they asked to speak anonymously in commenting on a fellow envoy.

Mr. Bolton that day burst into a packed committee hall, produced a cordless microphone and began to lecture envoys from developing nations about their weakening of a proposal to tighten management of the United Nations, his chief goal.

Gaveled to silence, he threw up his hands and said, “Well, so much for trying something different.”

It was not merely rude, the ambassadors said. One recalled that moments later, his BlackBerry flashed a message from another envoy working on management change. “He just busted us apart,” it read.

Three weeks later, on June 30, the 191-member General Assembly upended Mr. Bolton’s strategy to force change, lifting a six-month budget cap that he engineered without agreeing to significant management improvements. Dumisani Kumalo, the South African ambassador and the leader of the Group of 77, which represents 132 developing nations, said Mr. Bolton’s “putting on budget caps and being very contentious” had increased his group’s resistance.

This isn't a surprise. The Times favors the UN over the US every time.

Hamas Folding?

Ha'aretz is reporting that Hamas just may have blinked.

Senior Fatah sources in Gaza said on Saturday Hamas is ready to accept a deal that involves freeing abducted soldier Gilad Shalit, a joint cease-fire and an end to IDF actions in the Gaza Strip.

What is not clear is whether Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader in Damascus, will sanction the Egyptian-brokered deal.

The initiative, proposed by Egypt and discussed by Palestinian leaders in Gaza in the last few days, consists of freeing Gilad Shalit, a joint cease-fire and the cessation of the IDF's assassinations in the Gaza Strip and freeing Palestinian prisoners later on.

The deal also includes understandings to set up a national unity government.

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas met Hamas parliament members and leaders in Gaza, urging them to accept the deal before American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's arrival this week.

Most Palestinian factions, including the Hamas leadership, agreed to the deal in principle, but argued that Israel is not ready for a cease-fire as long as Shalit is held captive. Fatah's leadership also rejects a unilateral cease-fire at this stage.

Egypt, meanwhile, is continuing its efforts to persuade Hamas leaders overseas and in Gaza to free Shalit in exchange for Egyptian guarantees to release Palestinian prisoners later on, as part of a comprehensive cease-fire deal.

Dr Salah al-Bardawil, head of the Hamas parliamentary faction, told Haaretz that if Israel stops its actions in Gaza, most streams would accept a cease-fire.

He added, however, Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh already proposed a unilateral cease-fire and Israel rejected it.

Hamas leaders in Gaza are interested in separating the negotiations over the Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit from Hezbollah's negotiations over Lebanese prisoners. Bardawil stressed that there is no cooperation between Hamas and Hezbollah about the prisoner exchange negotiations.

This is amazing if true. One wonders exactly how much pressure Hamas came under from the Arab goverments that really do not want an ascendant Iran becoming a regional power.

This Is Too Funny

A brand new, really spiffy, environmentally friendly bandwagon to jump on! Forget the buzz about Gore '08. This is even better. How about Gore  '08 v.2.0. Or vp.2.0, as it were. As in a modest proposal for Gore running for VICE President in '08. So speculates Michael Grunwald in the Washington Post.

Yes, Al Gore should run for vice president.

John Nance Garner famously said that the vice presidency wasn't worth a bucket of warm spit, and for Garner (who served under FDR) it probably wasn't. But it is now, a trend that began with one Albert Gore Jr.

Gore was one of President Bill Clinton's most trusted White House advisers, lunching with him every Tuesday, encouraging him to sign a controversial welfare reform bill, persuading him to bomb Serbia. Gore also oversaw the administration's environmental policies, launched a dorky but effective "reinventing government" campaign, and demolished Ross Perot in a free-trade debate. He was often described as the most powerful vice president in history.

And he was, until he was succeeded and supplanted by Dick Cheney, a former White House chief of staff, defense secretary and head of George W. Bush's vice presidential search committee. Cheney's control over Bush may be more myth than fact, but it's no myth that he wields unprecedented clout for a number two — on foreign policy, energy policy, just about every policy. Cheney has become a kind of chief operating officer for the federal government, pulling levers behind the scenes, working his Washington contacts. And Bush has never seen him as a threat, in large part because he's ruled out running for president himself.

That's a perfect model for Gore, a distinguished public servant with limited political skills. His most noted stumbles while in office were political stumbles — fundraising follies such as collecting campaign cash at a Buddhist temple, his PR-deaf "no controlling legal authority" explanation of said follies, his over-the-top defense of Clinton in the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and then his tortured efforts to distance himself from Clinton during his campaign.

The inconvenient truth is that as a politician, Gore has always been more successful in a supporting role. In the Senate, he was a visionary on environmental issues, nuclear proliferation and, yes, the Internet, which he never did claim he invented. And people forget that his addition to the ticket in 1992 helped jump-start the Clinton campaign. But Gore never seemed comfortable as a presidential candidate; he surrounded himself with consultants who deluged him with bad (Don't mention Clinton!), frivolous (Wear earth tones!) and conflicting advice. He ended up bringing three different demeanors to his three debates. He never talked about the environment and other issues close to his heart, and he never sounded as genuine as he did in his movie.

This is probably the single silliest trial balloon I have personally ever witnessed. What's even funnier is the running mates Grunwald proposes:

Of course, the current Democratic front-runner, Hillary Rodham Clinton, is a longtime Gore rival, and a new Clinton-Gore ticket is too far-fetched even for a thought experiment. But who knows? Maybe if Gore agreed to run with Obama or John Edwards or Mark Warner before the primaries, there would be a new Democratic front-runner.

Oh, please, bring this one on. The American public would have absolutely endless fun with this one. I might have to start watching Saturday Night Live again just to see the way they'd skewer it. ("I invented the Vice-Presidency" comes to mind right off the bat).

And they rightfully would have fun with it.

A Cautionary Tale

Haim Watzman, writing in the Washington Post has a cautionary tale for Israel. Watzman served in the Israeli Defense Force in Lebanon during the first Israeli invasion in 1982. In fact he served several years there. One day, Watzman went for a run:

This is the most idiotic thing you've ever done, I remember telling myself. It was 1983. I was a 26-year-old infantryman with Israel's occupying force in Lebanon, and a perfect target for kidnappers. Any of the ancient cars rumbling by could have contained guerrillas. I could have been stuffed in a trunk and smuggled across the frontier into enemy hands. In violation of standing orders, my commanding officer had approved my 30-minute run. If you're more than five minutes late, he warned, we'll assume you've been captured.

If I had been, every Israeli army radio in the occupation's eastern sector would have crackled with the codeword — Hannibal — indicating the abduction of an Israeli soldier. Soldiers would be roused from bed. Patrols would rush to pre-assigned locations. Armored personnel carriers would block escape routes. While running, I felt a perverse sense of power, knowing two divisions stood ready to find me.

Today, with one Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in the Gaza Strip and two others by Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel has responded with airstrikes, naval blockades and ground action. As a soldier, Hannibal gave me confidence and boosted morale among my comrades. And today, I believe that deploying our military to stop Hezbollah's rocket attacks and to obtain the return of our troops is fully justified.

However, I fear that we might not stop there, and that we might succumb to the delusion that military action can transform Lebanon's political and social realities. That same delusion led Israel to occupy Lebanon for an agonizing decade and a half in which hundreds of our troops — and many more Lebanese and Palestinians — were killed.

I went running that spring day because I was desperate for exercise after days cooped up at our mountain outpost. But my run was also a small act of protest. Caught in what I considered a wrongheaded war, I was flouting standing orders and common sense.

We were occupying Lebanon, but Lebanon had become our captor.

After settling in Israel in 1978, my first home was in Kiryat Shmonah, a town near the Lebanese border. A few years earlier, Palestinian terrorists had crossed over and killed 18 residents in an apartment building there, including nine children. Every two or three weeks, Palestine Liberation Organization guerrillas fired Katyusha rockets on our town and other northern settlements. Time and again, Israeli forces swept into southern Lebanon to clean out the terrorist bases. Eventually, however, the bases would regroup and the attacks would resume.

The article is wonderfully written and really should be read. Watzman is angry at Hezbollah but wary that Israel could fall into the same trap he found himself in. The situation is different today, but has many of the same elements. When Watzman was part of the invasion, the enemy was made up of Palestinian terrorists. Now it is Iranian backed Lebanese Shia Hezbollah. But the similarities are there nonetheless. As are the traps.

Echoes

Israel Continues To Try To Minimize Casualties

Unlike Hezbollah, Israel continues to try to minimize civilian casualties. They have issued warnings to a number of towns that military operations will be expanded to those areas. They have told civilians to get out. Hezbollah is required under the Geneva Conventions to do their part to minimize casualties among the civilian populace.

The IDF indicated Saturday evening that it intends to expand operations in Southern Lebanon in its call to 13 villages in Southern Lebanon to relocate north of the Litani by the same evening. As of now, tens of thousands of Southern Lebanon residents have already left the area. The IDF plan to 'clean' the area of terror nests, using both ground and air offensives.

Many IDF forces stationed in northern Israel are preparing for operations in Southern Lebanon. Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, IDF Chief of General Staff, in his statement that, "a plane cannot raise a flag on a hill," implied that the IDF is planning an operation that can only be undertaken by ground forces.

The IDF has already begun to operate in several villages, including Maroun al-Ras, drawing heavy fire from terrorists. Saturday morning, an IDF infantry unit exposed a weapons cache in Marwaheen, containing anti-tank missiles and a machine gun with many bullets.

The 13 villages being asked to relocate are: Aitrun, Atiri, Barashit, Beit Yahoun,Bint Jubayl, Bleida, Einata, Hadatiya, Hirbat Salim, Kontin, Kharsat a-Talab, Majal Salim, Shakra, and Yarun. In messages relayed to residents of these towns, via both Arabic news agencies and local sources, the residents were informed that anyone not following the instructions to relocate to the north is endangering his life and the life of his family. The message also stated that Hizbullah tends to use civilians as 'human shields'.

IDF sources told ynet that different forces will operate in these towns in order to uncover Hizbullah infrastructure. "There will be areas where we will encounter terrorists, there will be fighting, but we are steadfast in our mission to uproot from this region terrorist activity that threatens the state of Israel," they said.

That Israel is being held to a different standard than Hezbollah is an indication of how biased the left really is. At this point any civilians left in the combat zone are either there willingly or are being held there as human shields by Hezbollah.

101st Blog Of The Day

Today my mission to visit one member of the Fighting 101st each day led me over to Chaotic Synaptic Activity. Although not as frequently updated with posts as some blogs (who will remain, of course, nameless) there is quite a lot of interest over there. Cognitive rocks and really neat war trophies for example.

This Ought To Be Amusing

The Democratic party rules and bylaws committee has recommended wedging Nevada's caucus in between Iowa and the New Hampshire primary. And all hell ought to be breaking out any moment over the attempt to alter the formula.

WASHINGTON - Democrats bucked decades of tradition Saturday by moving to wedge the state of Nevada between the long-standing one-two punch of Iowa and New Hampshire in the leadoff nominating contests for president in 2008.

In an effort to provide more diversity in early voting, the Democrats' rules and bylaws committee recommended that Nevada be allowed to hold a caucus the Saturday after Iowa's leadoff caucus — likely to be held Jan. 14. The rules panel also awarded South Carolina an early primary, which would be held a week after New Hampshire's Jan. 22 primary.

The full Democratic national committee has to approve the plan. But there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of joy in Mudville tonight.

The moves were praised by Alexis Herman, a co-chair of the rules panel, who said it was appropriate to make such changes "soon after the renewal of the Voting Rights Act" which protects the rights of minority voters. Almost a quarter of Nevada's population is Hispanic and more than a quarter of South Carolina's population is black. Iowa and New Hampshire are predominantly white. But some raised warnings that the move was risky.

"We're fooling with a lot of history here, a lot of tempers," said veteran Democratic strategist Harold Ickes. "We need to proceed with caution."

Along with choosing the two states allowed to go early before voting is open to all states, the rules panel considered whether to allow the voting to start Jan. 7 — which critics said was too close to the holidays and wouldn't allow enough time for campaigning.

New Hampshire Democratic chairwoman Kathy Sullivan said starting Jan. 7 would have been more fair to early states and to candidates and would likely have made the changes more appealing to angry New Hampshire officials. "That's just one more negative to consider," she said.

New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner will have to determine whether the Democrats' actions comply with a state law requiring that the Granite State's primary be scheduled a week or more before any "similar election." He could decide to move the New Hampshire primary earlier to protect its status.

Iowa and New Hampshire boast that they provide candidates a chance for face-to-face campaigning in small states, so the rules panel chose two more relatively small states that could provide similar opportunities for "retail politics."

And Jim Roosevelt, a co-chair of the panel, said placing a caucus before New Hampshire does not violate the state's law.

The lawyers should be jumping in any moment now.

What Will Happen

There are a lot of differing opinions on how the whole situation in Lebanon will turn out. There are many negative opinions, many positive and/or hopeful ones. I thin Ha'aretz has published an interview that helps clarify the underlying issues and helps define what must be accomplished. A return to the status quo ante is not in anyone's best interests, not the Israelis, not the Lebanese and not the Palestinians.

Professor Martin Kramer says that he does not know, and therefore he cannot answer, whether the war will rip apart the delicate fabric of Lebanese society. But, he says, "I expect that it will shatter the fragile fiction of Lebanese politics."

A world-renowned expert on Lebanon, Kramer is a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and a former director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.

Why do you think this crisis is happening?

"Hezbollah's hubris has created an opportunity for Israel.

"Since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, Hezbollah has basked in the illusion that it defeated Israel - that it somehow discovered a path to victory that had eluded Arab governments and the Palestinian movement. It began to puff itself up, as the only force willing and able to stand up to Israel. Hezbollah lost its respect for Israeli power, and began to portray Israel as unable to sustain a protracted conflict.

"Nasrallah allowed a personality cult to develop around himself, and Hezbollah marketed him as the only strategic genius in the Arab world. Increasingly, it would seem that the higher echelons in Hezbollah began to believe their own propaganda.

"I doubt Hezbollah expected the Israeli reaction to be as swift, extensive and destructive as it has been. Hezbollah probably believed it would score a few points in Arab public opinion by a cross-border operation, and that it would make one more incremental change in the rules of the game.

"It was a strategic miscalculation. Hezbollah didn't internalize changes in the broader strategic climate. The top regional issue today is Iran's nuclear drive, not the fate of Hamas or the Palestinian issue. If Hezbollah had understood this fully, it would have laid very low until needed by Iran in a mega-crisis with the United States. At that point, its threats against Israel would have been added to the overall deterrent capabilities of Iran, and might have caused the United States to think twice.

"Hezbollah apparently didn't understand this. If Iran was directly involved in the decision, it also shows an erosion of discipline in Iran's own decision-making process. Iran had nothing to gain from this little adventure, and a lot to lose. It may well be that President Ahmadinejad's rhetoric is beginning to cloud judgment in Tehran.

"In any case, it is in the interests of Israel and the United States to deal with the Hezbollah threat now, and not later in the midst of a far more dangerous crisis over Iran's nuclear plans. So a war now to degrade Hezbollah is a shared Israel-U.S. interest, which means that Israel can wage it without many constraints.

Read the whole thing. It's worth taking the time to read. The is an enormous opportunity here, but also an enormous risk.

Update On Terrorist Arrested In Kenya

A team from India has been dispatched to Kenya to bring back Abdul Karim Tunda, the wanted terrorist bomber arrested there yesterday. Kenya has expressed it's willingness to turn the man over to someone, but there appears to be a little confusion as to who is going to get him, India or the US.

NEW DELHI: Kenya has expressed its willingness to deport Abdul Karim Tunda, the terrorist arrested by the Kenyan police on Thursday and kept in a prison in Mombasa, after his identity has been confirmed by Indian authorities who are expected to reach the port city to get hold of him.

A team comprising officials of CBI and MEA will shortly leave for Kenya to identify and seek custody of one of India’s 20 most wanted terrorists. Sources said Tunda is very high on the hierarchy of Lashkar-e-Taiba and his arrest will help in busting many LeT modules in the country and its sleeper cells.

But a Kenyan newspaper - Kenya Times - reported on Saturday that the terrorist had been shifted from ‘‘Mombasa central prison to Nairobi under a heavy anti-terrorism police guard on his way to being deported to an unknown country.’’
However, confusion about Tunda's arrest continued late into the day. Even as Kenyan police denied that the arrested man was Tunda, Indian agencies were absolutely confident in their assessment that it was indeed him. As for a report quoting the Kenyan police spokesperson that the man was from west Asia and was being handed over to FBI, sources said that the confusion could be because Tunda’s name had figured in the bombing of the US embassy in Tanzania. This explained FBI’s interest in him.

Well, this is getting interesting, isn't it? Earlier post here.

Spoke Too Soon

I had hoped that there was a bit of a slowdown in the number of rockets being launched at Israel. That turned out to be optimistic. Ha'aretz is reporting that over 160 rockets have fallen on civilian targets in the past day. Seventeen have been wounded.

Some 17 people were wounded Saturday, two of them seriously, as waves of Katyusha strikes - more than 160 rockets - struck targets across the north of Israel.

On Saturday evening, a barrage of rockets landed in Safed, wounding four members of the same family, one of them seriously. Also Saturday evening, rockets hit Nahariya and Carmiel, seriously wounding a Carmiel resident. In a rocket strike earlier in the day, two Carmiel residents were hurt, one moderately and the other lightly, in direct hits on their homes.

One person sustained moderate wounds and three others were lightly hurt as 54 Katyusha rockets landed in Nahariya.

In Israel's northernmost city of Kiryat Shmona, six people were lightly injured as approximately 26 rockets landed in and around the city.

Rockets also landed in Safed, Rosh Pina, Ma'alot, the Golan Heights, and the northern Galilee panhandle. Six rockets landed in open areas in Haifa.

Alerts were sounded in Acre, Tiberias, and several northern towns and villages to warn residents of possible rocket strikes.

Four people suffered moderate wounds and 12 were lightly hurt by rocket attacks in Haifa on Friday. After a reprieve of nearly a day, Hezbollah renewed its attacks, firing ten rockets into the northern city and its suburbs in two waves.

The wounded were taken to Rambam Medical Center, Carmel Medical Center and Bnei Zion Medical Center (Rothschild) for treatment.

Most of the wounded were hurt when a rocket slammed into a central post office branch. Another rocket hit a residential building. No one was in the apartment that was hit in the strike, and no injuries were reported. A third rocket hit a parked car in the city. Shortly after the rocket strike, municipality workers began clearing the rubble.

Hezbollah also fired rockets Friday at the Galilee, where two people were hurt. One person was lightly wounded in Yesod Hama'aleh from rocket shrapnel, and a Rosh Pina resident was very lightly hurt in a strike. Two houses were damaged in the Western Galilee, near Ma'alot. Rockets hit two empty homes in Nahariya, causing no injuries. Rockets also landed in open areas near Safed and Kiryat Shmona, Tiberias, and in the vicinity of Carmiel.

Not a good day, I think.

Reaching

Sign Of Impending Victory?

Here's a stunner for the people who keep up the flood of negativity about Israel. The meme goes something like, "Israel can't win by force because….." insert whatever logic.

Only the Palestinians appear to be folding in Gaza.

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Militant groups in the Gaza Strip have agreed to stop firing missiles at Israel at midnight Saturday, senior Palestinian officials said.

The unilateral cease-fire is aimed at ending an Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip that began June 28, three days after militants raided an Israeli army post, killing two soldiers and capturing a third, 19-year-old Cpl. Gilad Shalit, the officials said on condition of anonymity because the agreement was reached at a closed meeting.

More than 100 Palestinians have been killed since then in daily attacks by Israeli warplanes, tanks and artillery, and the militants have fired hundreds of homemade rockets at southern Israel.

The agreement was reached in Gaza City following meetings sponsored by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh aimed at finding a way out of the crisis in Gaza, the officials said. Several Palestinian militant groups attended, including Haniyeh's Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which have been blamed for many of the rocket attacks on southern Israel, the officials said.

Got that? They are unilaterally stopping the launching of rockets into Israel. If they now give up the kidnapped soldier, Israel will have won exactly what they wanted when the offensive began. This is potentially enormous news.

UPDATE: Scratching Post may have hit on something here. Meanwhile, Captain Ed thinks this is just a triangle offensive.

Ode To An Old Flame

Ah, the smooth sleekness. The classic beauty. That timeless sound you make.

Ain't Zippo lighters neat?

BRADFORD, Pa. - Derrick Stainton can't stop talking about his old flames. He's got more than 1,000 of them at home in Scotland. "My daughter thinks I'm crazy," the 54-year-old welder said. The objects of his affection: Zippo lighters, 1,056 of them to be exact. And he's not alone in his hobby.

Thousands of fellow fans, dealers and curiosity-seekers are gathering this weekend here to celebrate the shiny, rectangular windproof lighters that flick open with a distinctive clicking sound.

"So simple. So basic. The design is so nice," Stainton said. "I eat, sleep and drink Zippos."

Fanatics congregate at Zippo Manufacturing Co. headquarters in this northwest Pennsylvania city every other year for an international "swap meet."

They stroll around under huge tents to look at seemingly endless number of display cases in search of a must-have Zippo and trade stories with other enthusiasts. The meet is held in conjunction with a similar gathering for collectors of W.R. Case & Sons Cutlery Co. knives, which is owned by Zippo.

It's the lighters that grab the spotlight.

There are thousands of different designs on Zippos: Team logos, travel scenes, landscapes, band names, military designs or nudes. They are all on a lighter that measures 2 1/4 inches tall by 1 1/2 inches wide and weighs about 2 ounces.

A plain Zippo lighter costs about $15, but many designer ones have price tags of at least several hundred dollars.

For many fans, the connection gets personal. They can recount stories about how they got their first lighter and where they have traveled with it. But not every enthusiast is a smoker.

"We only collect lighters," said Gerard Klvivingh, 48, of the Netherlands, who has about 500 in his collection. "It's the handcrafting, that's what I like about it. You don't have to smoke."

There are collectors for everything, aren't there?

Perfect

The RCP Blog has the absolutely perfect cartoon posted. It literally says it all.