Feeling The Pinch?
Via Commenter (and blogger) Crosspatch, this article from the Jerusalem Post indicates that there may be a little problem in Hezbollah's terrorist paradise.
Hizbullah is organized along military lines, with regional commands in southern, northern and central Lebanon. The unit in the south, called the "Katyusha Unit" by the IDF, consists of some 1,000 fighters who have been responsible for most of the rocket attacks on communities north of Acre and Amiad.
The unit has been able to recruit reserves, but MI has noticed that it has run into difficulty convincing members of the terror group who reside in northern Lebanon to travel south to participate in the fighting.
Once the unit exhausts the missiles currently in its possession, it will, MI believes, have difficulty acquiring more, since most of the roads and supply routes have been destroyed by the IDF. Several Syrian and Iranian attempts to send supplies to Hizbullah have been thwarted by the IDF.
North of the Litani River, Hizbullah operates a unit called the "medium-range rocket unit" believed to be responsible for firing Katyushas at Haifa and Israel's northern coast. Most of that unit's missiles were supplied by Syria prior to the current conflict.
This unit is also believed to have an arsenal of long-range rockets - Iranian-made Fajr 5 and Zelzal missiles capable of reaching targets 200 km. away.
Hizbullah still has several functioning military command centers in different regions in Lebanon, according to MI assessments. Officials in these centers are still able to command Hizbullah's men in the field.
If Hezbollah terrorists from the North are actually refusing to head South, what are they seeing? Maybe not what they thought? This could be a very bad sign for Hezbollah.
Uncategorized | Gaius Sunday, 23 July , 2006
By crosspatch, Sunday, 23 July , 2006 @ 10:40 pm
I belive I am starting to see a method to Israel’s response but I am going to wait another day to post it just to see of the pattern I am seeing holds. If I am correct, it is actually a pretty smart move and there isn’t much Hezbollah can do to counter it. I am prepared to say this much though:
Hezbollah is as much a slave to certain realities as Israel is. Hezbollah committed itself to a course of action designed to produce a desired result. When Israel responded differently than anticipated, Hezbollah was astute in recognizing that and attempted to turn Israel’s response to its advantage. I believe this will also fail as Israel as found a strategy that will both meet her objectives and not play into Hezbollah’s plans. If that is so, then Hezbollah stands to lose quite a lot (more) in the coming week and will have nobody to blame but themselves.
Another data point I would be interested in if anyone happens to stumble across it is the demographic breakdown of Lebanese “civilian” casualties by age/sex. I have been unable to locate such a breakdown but the UN might have such a number someplace.
By John Harllee, Monday, 24 July , 2006 @ 6:43 am
Crosspatch-
Here’s a partial answer to your question: the UN estimates that a third of the fatalities have been children. One NGO estimates much higher: 45%. Here’s my source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/article_1182627.php/Charity_says_more_children_killed_in_Lebanon_than_thoughtm (I also read the one-third estimate in El Mundo of Madrid (in Spanish), attributed to the Lebanese Minister of Culture, but the article doesn’t pop up on a Google search — I don’t know why.)
By crosspatch, Monday, 24 July , 2006 @ 10:24 am
What I am “fishing” for is a number of military aged males higher than the population in general. It appears that everything available so far is propaganda. If it is true civilian casualties, then we should be seeing the casualty demographics that track with the demographics of the population. When I see numbers like 45% children I think propaganda because I don’t think Israel has developed a child seeking bomb unless Lebanon has experianced a significant post civil war baby boom and that actually reflects the percentage of the population under 16.
What I am suspecting is that Hezbollah fighters are being lumped into civilian casualties. This would become evident if the number if males 16-50 are higher in the casualty count than in the general population.
By crosspatch, Monday, 24 July , 2006 @ 11:19 am
More good news on the war on terrorists.
By John Harllee, Monday, 24 July , 2006 @ 11:56 am
Crosspatch-
The CIA World Factbook says that 26.5% of Lebanon’s population is ages 0 to 14. This is roughly in line with the UN estimate of one third of the fatalities being children. I agree that 45% seems awfully high — could be true, but seems unlikely.
I don’t think the figures we are going to get anytime soon are going to allow you to judge whether there are a disproportionate percentage of military age males. Any estimate under present conditions is going to have too wide a range of uncertainty.
By crosspatch, Monday, 24 July , 2006 @ 2:40 pm
“Any estimate under present conditions is going to have too wide a range of uncertainty.”
But we might be in luck for later historical searches. Unlike Sunnis, many Shiites bury their dead in cemetaries with headstones much as Christians do (which is why Sunnis sometimes call Shiites “grave worshipers”) and if most of the casualties are Shiite, cemetary surveys can be done later.
But word is starting to leak out about overstatement of civilian casualties and understating of Hezbollah’s. There is a report to be aired on Fox shortly on the subject. They keep teasing it before commercial breaks but I have no idea when it is going to air.