Is Hezbollah Folding?
This is truly bizarre. According to this report, Hezbollah politicians have agreed to some pretty startling concessions to end the war.
BEIRUT, Lebanon – Hezbollah politicians, while expressing reservations, have joined their critics in the government in agreeing to a peace package that includes strengthening an international force in south Lebanon and disarming the guerrillas, the government said.
The agreement — reached after a heated six-hour Cabinet meeting — was the first time that Hezbollah has signed onto a proposal for ending the crisis that includes the deploying of international forces.
The package falls short of American and Israeli demands in that it calls for an immediate cease-fire before working out details of a force and includes other conditions.
But European Union officials said Friday the proposals form a basis for an agreement, increasing the pressure on the United States to call for a cease-fire.
President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Friday they too want an international force dispatched quickly to the Mideast but said any plan to end the fighting — to have a lasting effect — must address long-running regional disputes.
"This is a moment of intense conflict in the Middle East," Bush said after his meeting with Blair in Washington. "Yet our aim is to turn it into a moment of opportunity and a chance for broader change in the region."
By signing onto the peace proposals, Hezbollah gave Western-backed Prime Minister Fuad Saniora a boost in future negotiations.
Going into Thursday night's Cabinet session, Hezbollah's two ministers expressed deep reservations about the force and its mandate, fearing it could turn against their guerrillas.
"Will the international force be a deterrent one and used against who?" officials who attended the Cabinet meeting said in summing up Hezbollah cabinet ministers concerns. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the debate.
But afterward, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi announced that the package had been agreed on by consensus in a rare show of unity by a divided administration.
While all sides seemed to be looking for a way to stop the fighting, details of plans taking shape on all sides were still fuzzy. And it was not at all certain Hezbollah would really follow through on the Lebanese government plan that would effectively abolish the militants' military wing. It may have signed on to the deal convinced that Israel would reject it.
If true, this indicates how bad a situation Hezbollah is actually in. If they thought they were winning, there is absolutely no way they would agree to any of these terms. Period. I suspect their miscalculation here was of epic proportions and they know it. I also suspect Israel is very close indeed to a total crushing of Hezbollah.
Other Links to this Post
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Don Singleton — July 28, 2006 @ 8:33 pm
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Too Cool for Words — July 29, 2006 @ 5:11 am
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Klein Verzet — July 29, 2006 @ 6:59 am
By crosspatch, July 28, 2006 @ 9:35 pm
How many times have the Palestinians “agreed” to a ceasefire this week only to launch more missiles? I will belive this from Hezbollah when I actually see it. They will agree to “disarm” and turn over a few dozen old WWI rifles some codgers have had stored in their attics for a generation or two.
Unless they turn over several thosand rockets, this is bull. Sorry, I just don’t trust them. But it is possible, I suppose, that Hezbollah has got the message that they are “on their own”. Somehow I doubt Iran would abandon them.
By Gaius, July 28, 2006 @ 9:40 pm
Here’s what’s interesting. Hamas appears to have stopped firing their rockets. I have not heard of any hits in the South, have you? They still hold their kidnap victim but appear to have stopped the rockets.
We’ll see.
By crosspatch, July 28, 2006 @ 9:47 pm
“Hezbollah launched 105 Katyusha rockets at northern Israel on Friday, five striking as far south as the Afula area – the first time that the Jezreel Valley has been hit in a week.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/743555.html
By Gaius, July 28, 2006 @ 9:49 pm
No, not Hezbollah. Hamas. They stopped launching from Gaza after they announced they were ready to fold.
By crosspatch, July 28, 2006 @ 9:52 pm
“A rocket landed next to a kindergarten in south of Ashkelon, wounding two children, while eight suffered from shock on Friday morning.
Earlier, a number of rockets hit central Sderot. No one was wounded, but residents demanded a boost in army operations on the southern front. Sderot residents, who felt neglected before fighting began in the north, are still under fire despite a strong Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.
Thursday night five Kassams were fired towards Sderot and the Shaar Hanegev region. No one was wounded.”
http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=8819
By crosspatch, July 28, 2006 @ 10:05 pm
See, the problem is that Abbas keeps reaching “agreements” and the other groups (PIJ and Hamas) refuse to go along. What we are actually seeing here is what the problem was in pre-Westphalian Europe when you had this prince or that prince dictation their religion, having their army, and running little private wars. We imposed a post-Westphalian nation-state reality on the region in 1920 but they don’t have the cultural history to understand it the way we do. So they are going through their own 80-years war, 30-years war, whatever war … until the notion that a state needs one army and one voice sinks in, they are not going to get anywhere and we are all eliminating windward, on both sides.
By Gaius, July 28, 2006 @ 10:09 pm
I stand corrected. On the other hand, it’s a lot less than what was happening, so that’s hopeful
Look, I don’t trust that these guys will really disarm, either. But it has to start somewhere – if even a few more realize this crap will bring all hell down on them, maybe they’ll blink.
By crosspatch, July 28, 2006 @ 10:16 pm
What bothers me most is:
So what it is really saying is that if Israel stops shooting right now, and does some other things, then maybe someday we might do some other things. That isn’t enough for a ceasefire in my opinion.
By Gaius, July 28, 2006 @ 10:29 pm
My point is that they would not even think of doing this if they tought they were winning. Right?
Ergo, they are losing and they know it.
By crosspatch, July 28, 2006 @ 10:56 pm
Okay, I took it differently. If they could negotiate a ceasefire that causes Israel to stop now and accept “other conditions” while imposing no immediate conditions on Hezbollah aside from possibly considering a foreign “peacekeeping” force at some point in the future, then who really wins?
Hezbollah gets a ceasefire, resupplies and rearms, then refuses to agree to the peacekeeping force. Simple. Now they are right back to where they were before the thing started. I would accept no ceasefire that did not include as a condition some kind of force in place in Southern Lebanon that prevents Hezbollah from remanning, rearming, and resupplying the areas Isreal has already cleared.
In other words, do you call a ceasefire, allow Hezbollah to go back in to Bent Jbeil and then start firing rockets again leaving Israel having to take the town all over again?
I know it seems stupid, but diplomats reach stupid agreements sometimes and what I read in that article clearly gives Hezbollah the upper hand. They agree to let Israel stop shooting at them in return for nothing on their side.
By crosspatch, July 28, 2006 @ 11:02 pm
In other words, Israel agrees to a ceasefire in exchange for Hezbollah possibly condidering a peacekeeping force. You are asking Israel to give a real in exchange for a potential when dealing with someone who has a long track record of lying. It makes no sense.
By ladsflajdad, July 28, 2006 @ 11:48 pm
One might wonder if the air campaign with so little ground action is working after all. However, talk of an agreement is not an agreement, and an agreement is not an implementation.