What Does This Teach Us?
Warren Christopher pontificates in the Washington Post on his role in two ceasefires with Hezbollah that he helped negotiate. He misses completely the irony of that which he writes upon.
My own experience in the region underlies my belief that in the short term we should focus our efforts on stopping the killing. Twice during my four years as secretary of state we faced situations similar to the one that confronts us today. Twice, at the request of the Israelis, we helped bring the bloodshed to an end.
In June 1993, Israel responded to Hezbollah rocket attacks along its northern border by launching Operation Accountability, resulting in the expulsion of 250,000 civilians from the southern part of Lebanon.
After the Israeli bombardment had continued for several days, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin asked me to use my contacts in Syria to seek their help in containing the hostilities. I contacted Foreign Minister Farouk Shara, who, of course, consulted with Syrian President Hafez al-Assad. After several days of urgent negotiations, an agreement was reached committing the parties to stop targeting one another's civilian populations. We never knew exactly what the Syrians did, but clearly Hezbollah responded to their direction.
In April 1996, when Hezbollah again launched rocket attacks on Israel's northern border, the Israelis countered with Operation Grapes of Wrath, sending 400,000 Lebanese fleeing from southern Lebanon. Errant Israeli bombs hit a U.N. refugee camp at Cana in southern Lebanon, killing about 100 civilians and bringing the wrath of international public opinion down upon Israel.
This time Shimon Peres, who had become prime minister after the assassination of Rabin, sought our help. In response, we launched an eight-day shuttle to Damascus, Beirut and Jerusalem that produced a written agreement bringing the hostilities to an end. Weeks later, the parties agreed to a border monitoring group consisting of Israel, Syria, Lebanon, France and the United States. Until three weeks ago, that agreement had succeeded for 10 years in preventing a wholesale resumption of hostilities.
What do these episodes teach us?
From there Christopher just falls into the "honest broker" rhetoric. He's sees the US role to just step in and stop the fighting between the parties. What he completely misses is the glaringly obvious. The ceasefires do not work. They just provide a temporary lull until Hezbollah feels strong enough to start things up again. But in Christopher's world, the act of of the negotiation is, of itself, what is worthwhile. I agree with his last sentence, though:
It is time for the United States to step forward with the authority and balance that this moment requires.
But he wants the same old unworkable solution. I'd like to see the US step forward and change the equation by not doing the same old thing. Hezbollah badly miscalculated because they expected the same old tired Warren Christopher style failed solution. They have admitted that they were shocked when it didn't work the same old way. There are signs it is working in Gaza. By not doing the same failed diplomatic two-step, Abbas seems to be on the verge of pulling off a real ceasefire.
By Roland Hesz, Friday, 28 July , 2006 @ 9:20 am
I propse the US invade and annex the whole middle east.
That would solve the problem.
By Gaius, Friday, 28 July , 2006 @ 9:24 am
No thanks, Roland. What in the world would we want it for. Better idea: let Israel win outright instead of being reined in.
Wars end when someone wins, Roland. That’s the unfortunate truth.
By Blackhawk, Friday, 28 July , 2006 @ 12:22 pm
Thomas Friedman has an interesting OpEd in NYT today about how this is a battle between the birth of a new Middle East or the birth of the old Middle East (and a gratuitous Bush slam).
By Gaius, Friday, 28 July , 2006 @ 12:26 pm
Too bad it’s behind their Times Select firewall. Like I’d pay to read that rag.
By Blackhawk, Friday, 28 July , 2006 @ 6:16 pm
Hm. I got to it through the Early Bird, which you can get to from a .mil domain or through AKO.