Blue Crab Boulevard

For all intents and purposes, Charles Krauthammer thinks Israel has lost against Hezbollah. I rather hope he's wrong.

America's green light for Israel to defend itself is seen as a favor to Israel. But that is a tendentious, misleadingly partial analysis. The green light — indeed, the encouragement — is also an act of clear self-interest. America wants, America needs, a decisive Hezbollah defeat.

Unlike many of the other terrorist groups in the Middle East, Hezbollah is a serious enemy of the United States. In 1983 it massacred 241 American servicemen. Except for al-Qaeda, it has killed more Americans than any other terror organization.

More important, it is today the leading edge of an aggressive, nuclear-hungry Iran. Hezbollah is a wholly owned Iranian subsidiary. Its mission is to extend the Islamic Revolution's influence into Lebanon and Palestine, destabilize any Arab-Israeli peace, and advance an Islamist Shiite ascendancy, led and controlled by Iran, throughout the Levant.

America finds itself at war with radical Islam, a two-churched monster: Sunni al-Qaeda is now being challenged by Shiite Iran for primacy in its epic confrontation with the infidel West. With al-Qaeda in decline, Iran is on the march. It is intervening through proxies throughout the Arab world — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in Iraq — to subvert modernizing, Western-oriented Arab governments and bring these territories under Iranian hegemony. Its nuclear ambitions would secure these advances and give it an overwhelming preponderance of power over the Arabs and an absolute deterrent against serious counteractions by the United States, Israel or any other rival.

The moderate pro-Western Arabs understand this very clearly. Which is why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan immediately came out against Hezbollah and privately urged the United States to let Israel take down that organization. They know that Hezbollah is fighting Iran's proxy war not only against Israel but also against them and, more generally, against the United States and the West.

Hence Israel's rare opportunity to demonstrate what it can do for its great American patron. The defeat of Hezbollah would be a huge loss for Iran, both psychologically and strategically. Iran would lose its foothold in Lebanon. It would lose its major means to destabilize and inject itself into the heart of the Middle East. It would be shown to have vastly overreached in trying to establish itself as the regional superpower.

The United States has gone far out on a limb to allow Israel to win and for all this to happen. It has counted on Israel's ability to do the job. It has been disappointed. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has provided unsteady and uncertain leadership. Foolishly relying on air power alone, he denied his generals the ground offensive they wanted, only to reverse himself later. He has allowed his war cabinet meetings to become fully public through the kind of leaks no serious wartime leadership would ever countenance. Divisive cabinet debates are broadcast to the world, as was Olmert's own complaint that "I'm tired. I didn't sleep at all last night" (Haaretz, July 28). Hardly the stuff to instill Churchillian confidence.

I think there is still more to this than Krauthammer distills it down to. Michael Totten, no fan of the Israeli effort, did see some signs of hope. I don't think it's a  good idea to write this all off yet.

In what has got to be the silliest column I've read lately, EJ Dionne of the Washington Post asks is the right dead? Why? Because of the vote over the minimum wage. (Hard to type. Laughing too hard.)

A rather deft political move signals the end of the right to Dionne? Really? Oh yeah, it does:

The most obvious, outrageous and unprincipled spasm occurred last night when the Senate voted on a bill that would have simultaneously raised the minimum wage and slashed taxes on inherited wealth.

Rarely has our system produced a more naked exercise in opportunism than this measure. Most conservatives oppose the minimum wage on principle as a form of government meddling in the marketplace. But moderate Republicans in jeopardy this fall desperately wanted an increase in the minimum wage.

So the seemingly ingenious Republican leadership, which dearly wants deep cuts in the estate tax, proposed offering nickels and dimes to the working class to secure billions for the rich. Fortunately, though not surprisingly, the bill failed.

The episode was significant because it meant Republicans were acknowledging that they would not hold congressional power without the help of moderates. That is because there is nothing close to a conservative majority in the United States.

Yet their way of admitting this was to put on display the central goal of the currently dominant forces of politics: to give away as much as possible to the truly wealthy. You wonder what those blue-collar conservatives once known as Reagan Democrats made of this spectacle.

Last night's shenanigans were merely a symptom. Consider other profound fissures within the right. There is an increasingly bitter debate over whether it made any sense to wage war in Iraq in the hopes of transforming that country into a democracy. Conservatives with excellent philosophical credentials, including my colleague George F. Will, and Bill Buckley himself, see the enterprise as profoundly unconservative.

Oh, those silly shenanigans. How long has Dionne been a columnist, one wonders? An obviously political move, done for two good reasons in politics, providing cover for one's own while putting the opposition in an ugly position, is suddenly unheard of in Dionne's world? Deft becomes daft in the Dionne universe. The "right" has no more been a monolith than the left has been (although they think they are.) I've frankly never been a fan of Buckley or Will - though I agree more often with the latter more than the former.

On immigration, the big-business right and culturally optimistic conservatives square off against cultural pessimists and conservatives who see porous borders as a major security threat. On stem cell research, libertarians battle conservatives who have serious moral and religious doubts about the practice — and even some staunch opponents of abortion break with the right-to-life movement on the issue.

On spending . . . well, on spending, incoherence and big deficits are the order of the day. Writing in National Review in May, conservatives Kate O'Beirne and Rich Lowry had one word to describe the Republican Congress's approach to the matter: "Incontinence."

Funny, I see a lot of criticism for Bush over the border issue. I see a lot of people being very, very unhappy with spending. That does not mean that any of the unhappy people will abandon the Republicans and vote Democrat. No matter how much Dionne wishes it.

Between now and November, conservative leaders will dutifully try to rally the troops to stave off a Democratic victory. But their hearts won't be in the fight. The decline of conservatism leaves a vacuum in American politics. An unhappy electorate is waiting to see who will fill it.

I suspect EJ Dionne will be unhappy with the outcome of the elections. Because it will not be the end of the right. The left, is not the same as the liberals Dionne decries losing. For they are anything but liberal over there on that side.

And the Senate gets caught in the really bad dance contest! The bill that cornered the Democrats into a losing situation failed by four votes, and now a bunch of Democrats will have to scramble like heck to explain their votes. A bunch of Republicans now have the big stick to beat the Dems with. I think the Dems got owned on this one, frankly.

Republicans needed 60 votes to advance their bill, which links a $2.10 increase in the $5.15 federal minimum wage over three years to reductions an estate taxes next decade. The bill got a 56-42 vote, four votes short of succeeding. The House passed it last Saturday.

For Republicans, the combination could have neutralized a Democratic campaign issue while also advancing an estate tax cut, a priority that may have an uncertain future if the GOP loses seats in Congress in November's election.

The GOP strategy put Democrats in an uncomfortable position. Either they could vote against the bill — thus rejecting a minimum wage increase — or they could vote for it — thus agreeing to cut taxes on multimillion-dollar estates. Most rejected the bill, blocking a GOP victory months before the election.

The vote would have been 57-41, but Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., switched his vote in a maneuver preserving his right to debate the bill again this fall. He urged senators who voted against it to "rethink long and hard" before lawmakers reconvene in September.

Four Democrats joined Republicans and voted for the bill: Sens. Robert Byrd of West Virginia, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Bill Nelson of Florida and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. Two Republicans voted against the bill: Sens. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and George Voinovich of Ohio.

I wonder how much we'll hear the minimum wage issue for the rest of the campaign season. I'm guessing about as much as the culture of corruption meme lately.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to launch rockets against Tel Aviv if Israel hit Beirut again. Israel just did so, pounding areas that had been warned ahead of time.

The IAF resumed its attacks on southern Beirut on Thursday night with strikes against Hizbullah and Hamas offices in the Dahiya neighborhood, as well as the home of a senior Hizbullah operative.

The Air Force dropped leaflets over the city, earlier in the day, warning residents of five neighborhoods to leave the city.

Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel in a televised interview earlier in the day that if Beirut was struck, then he would launch rockets at Tel Aviv.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Earlier in the day, the IDF released the findings of an inquiry into the collapse of a building in Kana on Sunday, killing dozens of citizens.

The army said that it had believed the building to be vacant of citizens, after it had forewarned the residents to leave the area.

Had the army known that civilians were in the building, the attack would not have been carried out.

On Wednesday, both the Lebanese Health Ministry and the Human Rights Watch said that they could confirm only 28 of the originally reported 57 civilians who died in the building. Of the 28 that they confirmed, 16 were children.

CNN Coverage is here. They have video of leaflet drops warning residents.

Most of the targets were in the Oozaee area, a Hezbollah power base and also the location of several Palestinian refugee camps.

Late Thursday, Israeli warplanes dropped leaflets over several neighborhoods in the area warning residents to leave "for your own safety."

The leaflets warned of an expansion of the Israeli campaign in Beirut because Hezbollah continues to fire rockets into Israel and because of statements made Thursday by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

"The expansion of terrorist operations by Hezbollah will lead to a painful and harsh response and the results will be painful not only for Hassan's gang and its criminals," the leaflets read.

On Thursday, Nasrallah vowed to strike Tel Aviv in retaliation for Israel's bombardment of the Lebanese capital.

"If you hit Beirut, the Islamic resistance will hit Tel Aviv and is able to do that with God's help," Nasrallah said in a televised address.

It was unclear if Nasrallah's address was live or taped. It came on the same day Israel resumed airstrikes on Beirut's suburbs and shortly after Israel dropped leaflets warning residents of some areas of Beirut to evacuate.

I suspect that is now the war cry of defeated Chavez-leftist candidate for president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Or if it isn't it should be. The Mexican tourist industry is in serious, serious trouble.

MEXICO CITY - A human head washes up on an Acapulco beach. Protesters hassle visitors at makeshift checkpoints in the colonial city of Oaxaca. And in Mexico City, leftist demonstrators turn the tourist draws of Reforma Avenue and the Zocalo plaza into sprawling, ragtag protest camps.

Growing political unrest and drug violence are making foreigners think twice about visiting Mexico, where the $11.8 billion tourism industry is the country's third-largest legal source of income, after oil and remittances from migrants in the United States.

Mexico has been struggling since last fall, when Hurricane Wilma hit the country's biggest tourism moneymaker, Cancun.

No tourists have been reported hurt in Mexico City, Oaxaca or Acapulco, but hotels are being hit by cancellations of thousands of reservations.

In Mexico City alone, hotels, restaurants and stores are losing $23 million a day, according to the city's Commerce, Services and Tourism Chamber. Some businesses have threatened to stop paying taxes unless the government cracks down on the demonstrations.

Protesters in Oaxaca, claiming fraud in the state gubernatorial race, have taken over the picturesque downtown to pressure Gov. Ulises Ruiz to step down. They forced the cancellation of an ethnic festival, and tourists must pass through checkpoints to reach the arch-ringed main plaza.

Protesters want to use the unrest to "force the population that relies on tourism to pressure the government," said Jose Escobar, head of the Oaxaca employers' federation.

In the Pacific resort of Acapulco, drug gangs are battling for control of lucrative smuggling and sales routes. Human heads have been dumped in front of government offices and in the glittering resort's bay. There have been gun battles on the streets.

In Mexico City, supporters of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have taken over streets to press election officials for a re-count in the disputed July 2 presidential elections.

And tourism officials say things could get worse.

"If this goes on for a week or 10 days more, some hotels are going to be in a desperate situation," said Carlos Mackinlay, director of Mexico City tourism promotion.

Double-decker buses no longer tour the tree-lined Reforma, which connects the city's Chapultepec Park to the historic center but is now closed to traffic. Museums, restaurants and hotels stand largely empty.

Tourists who brave the demonstrations must skirt rickety gas cookers and duck under ropes holding up tarps as they hike back to their hotels. Mayor Alejandro Encinas said Thursday that city officials would guarantee access to hotels.

For now, helmetless motorcycle "taxi" drivers offer white-knuckle, 15-peso ($1.35) rides on the backs of their bikes, navigating past lawn chairs, cots and tents.

Korean businesswoman Sophia Noh, 28, paced outside the blockaded stock exchange building Thursday, wondering how she was going to get in for a meeting.

"This has made things harder," Noh said. "I think both sides should begin to negotiate."

Across the street, 60-year-old tourist Elvira Gotuzzo of Buenos Aires, Argentina, was trying to rent a car to get out of town. She and her family were too scared to sightsee in the city's 7-century-old downtown, which is occupied by demonstrators in ragged tents.

"This is a crime," Gotuzzo said. "It's such a shame!"

Better build that fence. It's going to get a whole lot uglier here in the very near future. AMLO will not let go of his personal ambition for the good of his country, despite the fact that observers from the European Union saw no irregularities.

He'll destroy it all, and be president of a massive train wreck.

President Bush issued a rather blunt call to the Cuban people to begin transitioning to a democratic society.

''The United States is actively monitoring the situation in Cuba following the announcement of a transfer of power,'' Bush said in a statement. “At this time of uncertainty in Cuba, one thing is clear: The United States is absolutely committed to supporting the Cuban people's aspirations for democracy and freedom.''

Castro has temporarily handed power to his brother Raúl, the first such handoff since the communist government was established 47 years ago. The streets in Havana have been calm since the announcement was made Monday evening.

''I encourage all democratic nations to unite in support of the right of the Cuban people to define a democratic future for their country,'' Bush added. “I urge the Cuban people to work for democratic change on the island.''

Bush, reiterating statements made by the administration in the past, said the United States will “take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba.''

The United States was ready to provide humanitarian assistance to the Cuban people.

''It has long been the hope of the United States to have a free, independent and democratic Cuba as a close friend and neighbor. In achieving this, the Cuban people can count on the full and unconditional support of the United States,'' the president said.

Meanwhile, no sign from either Fidel or Hugo Castro and the communist party is saying it fully intends to stay in power. I suspect we are seeing a power struggle over the remains of Castro at this point.

The Communist Party made plain on Thursday it intended to remain in control no matter what happened to Fidel Castro.

There was still no public appearance by his designated successor, Raul Castro, 75.

But in a typically cryptic message analysts said was designed to dispel fears of a disorderly transition of power, the main Communist newspaper Granma printed part of an old speech by Raul Castro.

In the speech, delivered on June 14 to army officers and first printed in Granma the following day, Raul Castro said, "Only the Communist Party …. can be the worthy heir of the trust Cubans have placed in their leader."

Some analysts said this was meant to signal that Raul will lead a more consensual style of government, with perhaps more power for the party Politburo, than Fidel, a notorious workaholic with a reputation for always getting his own way.

I rather wonder if Raul outlived his brother by very long at this point.

UPDATE: Fausta has quite a roundup.

I believe I mentioned that the next saber-rattle was due from Hugo Chavez. If not for Ahmadinejad apparent inability to stop talking, I would have had a perfect record. But, rattle Hugo did today. He recalled Venezuela's ambassador to Israel using decidedly undiplomatic language.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Thursday he has withdrawn his country's ambassador to Israel to show his "indignation" over the military offensive in Lebanon.

"We have ordered the withdrawal of our ambassador in Israel," Chavez said in a televised speech, calling Israeli attacks in Lebanon "genocide."

"It really causes indignation to see how the state of Israel continues bombing, killing … with all of the power they have, with the support of the United States," Chavez said after a military parade in the northwestern state of Falcon.

The leftist Venezuelan leader has repeatedly criticized Israel's offensive aimed at Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, noting mounting civilian deaths and saying the United Nations should act to halt the violence.

"It's hard explain to oneself how nobody does anything to stop this horror," said Chavez, whose government has until recently said it had good relations with Israel.

Chavez, an outspoken critic of Washington, also criticized what he called a relentless "campaign" by the U.S. government to keep Venezuela from obtaining a seat on the U.N. Security Council. U.S. officials have backed Guatemala for the seat, saying Venezuela would be a disruptive influence on the council.

The Venezuelan leader, a close ally and protege of Cuban President Fidel Castro, spoke after returning from an international tour that took him to Argentina, Belarus, Russia, Qatar, Iran, Vietnam, Mali and Benin. While in Iran, Chavez called the Israeli offensive in Lebanon a "fascist outrage."

"The Israeli elite repeatedly criticize Hitler's actions against the Jews, and indeed Hitler's actions must be criticized, not just against the Jews but against the world," Chavez said during his visit to Iran, adding: "It's also fascism what Israel is doing to the Palestinian people … terrorism and fascism."

Venezuela has both Arab immigrant and Jewish communities, and officials have insisted the government will continue to fully respect the Jewish community despite its strong opposition to Israel's war in Lebanon.

Some in Venezuela have protested against the fighting in Lebanon, including one group that burned an Israeli flag outside the Israeli embassy last month. State television also has shown images from Lebanon of people weeping over dead relatives and the ruins of bombed neighborhoods.

The Axis Of Egos™ is in full cry.

Apparently, Condoleezza Rice is signaling that some sort of compromise deal is in the works in the UN to permit a ceasefire in Lebanon, but with some "important principles" for a lasting solution.

WASHINGTON - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed support Thursday for an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon as the first phase in ending the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, in the most concrete signal yet that the U.S. may be willing to compromise on the stalemate over how to end the fighting.

Moving closer to the position that France and other European countries are taking, Rice predicted that a U.N. Security Council resolution would be approved within days that would include a cease-fire and describe principles for a lasting peace.

On CNN's "Larry King Live," Rice said the U.S. is moving "towards being able to do this in phases that will permit first an end or a stoppage in the hostilities and based on the establishment on some very important principles for how we move forward," according to a partial transcript of the show being aired Thursday night.

Almost since the outbreak of the fighting on July 12, the Bush administration has insisted that a cease-fire and steps aimed at creating a long-term peace be worked out simultaneously. These included establishing an international peacekeeping force and requiring the disarmament of the Hezbollah militant group.

"We need to end the hostilities in a way that points forward a direction for a sustainable peace," Rice said.

The measure that France and the U.S. were working on would be the first of two resolutions aimed at achieving a permanent cease-fire and a long-term solution to the conflict.

"We're certainly getting close," she said. "We're working with the French very closely. We're working with others."

Asked if U.S. policy had shifted, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack declined to comment.

The war, now in its fourth week, is taking a growing toll of Lebanese and Israeli civilians, as well as Hezbollah and Israeli fighters. Amid the intensifying bloodshed, calls for an immediate cease-fire have intensified.

Depending on what the principles are it could be a hopeful sign, or it could be a way to corner Hezbollah. If Hezbollah is put on the hot seat and fails to agree, it could put them in a really bad spot on this one.

This is something I honestly couldn't believe when I heard about it. The BBC is planning to air a 'satirical comedy' show called Time Trumpet. The first clips released on the internet to garner publicity include some real knee slappers.

Like a jumbo jet hitting Westminster and Tony Blair with a bullet hole in his head. All part of the Terrorism Awards segment of the show.

The BBC has been urged to pull a 'sick' new comedy show which features spoof news reports of Tony Blair being assassinated and a 9/11-style video of terrorists crashing an airliner into the Houses of Parliament.

The clips for an Oscar-style 'Terrorism Awards' ceremony that forms one of the sketches in the new BBC2 series, Time Trumpet.

As well as the al-Qaeda plane attack and a picture of Mr Blair with a bullet hole in the side of his head after being 'shot as he slept beside his wife', the skit also features a Hamas bombing in Tel Aviv. It is believed it was made before the recent outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East.

To add authenticity to the clips - which appeared on the internet yesterday in what appeared to be a cynical attempt to drum up publicity - 'The Terrorism Awards' are hosted by BBC election veteran Peter Snow and Tomorrow's World presenter Philippa Forrester.

Introducing the nominees, Mr Snow says: 'Terrorism can be a lonely business, and a long hard struggle. Our three finalists in this category are …'

After each clip is shown, there is the sound of applause and laughter - supposedly from the audience at the award ceremony.

The satire is the work of Armando Iannucci, who wrote the award-winning recent Whitehall comedy The Thick of It and was the co-creator of Steve Coogan's alter ego Alan Partridge.

Although Iannucci is known for his subtle parodies on the news and media - he produced The Day Today and On The Hour - his latest offering has provoked outrage from MPs of all sides. Andrew Dismore, Labour MP for Hendon, said it was 'absolutely sick.'

'At a time when people are dying for real on both sides in the Middle East, to try and make fun of what's going on is the worst thing imaginable.

'Nothing is more sick than attempting to make a joke out of people who are dying. It's beyond the pale.'

'The BBC governors should do something to stop this. And the fact that it could have been given approval by the BBC's editorial board is simply disgraceful.'

David Davies, Tory MP for Monmouth, said: 'It shows a distinct lack of taste and could even exacerbate the suffering of the July 7th bombing victims.

'The BBC receives a large amount of taxpayers' money and has a duty to use it responsibly. I can't see much comedy value in this at a time when all of us are at risk from terrorism.' The 'Terrorism Award' sketch features in episode three of the six-part series which starts tonight.

A preview of it, plus other sketches - including Dale Winton exploding and a mouse crawling out of Anna Ford's throat as she sombrely reads the One O'Clock News - yesterday appeared on the internet.

A little humorous thought experiment for the humorous left that thinks this is humorous. Would it be funny if it showed a jet hitting, oh say, the BBC? Or a prominent lefty with a bullet hole? Would it be funny?

Major case of mental illness here. There simply are not enough words to describe this behavior.

My friend Rick over at The Real Ugly American has a few questions to ask Jefferson Morley at the Washington Post on accuracy in reporting. The fact is that there are some serious questions about Qana and Morley just wants to discredit the questioners without actually answering the questions. Rick takes him to task. Take a trip over and see for yourself.