All the way back at the beginning of May, I wrote a post warning that the Democrat's strategy of trying a "throw the bums out" message might not be a really good idea. The danger, of course, is that such a strategy could backfire badly given the low polling numbers of Congress as a whole. Today the Washington Post notices the same danger.
Most Americans describe themselves as being in an anti-incumbent mood heading into this fall's midterm congressional elections, and the percentage of people who approve of their own representative's performance is at the lowest level since 1994, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
As attention turns to Connecticut for Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman's Democratic primary showdown today, the poll found some of the same political currents that have buffeted his campaign flowing through the national electorate. The public has soured on politicians backing the Iraq war, which Democrats consider the most important issue of the election.
Eighty-one percent of Democrats say the war was not worth fighting, and 70 percent feel that way "strongly." A majority of Democrats, 54 percent, say a candidate endorsing Bush's Iraq policy would be less likely to get their vote, compared with 37 percent for whom it would not make much difference. Two in three Democrats say it is time to begin decreasing troop levels in Iraq, although only one in four supports immediate withdrawal.
Especially worrisome for members of Congress is that the proportion of Americans who approve of their own representative's performance has fallen sharply. Traditionally, voters may express disapproval of Congress as a whole but still vote for their own member, even from the majority party. But 55 percent now approve of their lawmaker, a seven-percentage-point drop over three months and the lowest such finding since 1994, the last time control of the House switched parties.
The conventional argument is that Republicans have more to lose. This may or may not be the case in reality since these national polls don't really tell anything of value about local races. It's interesting to note the trend, though. I still believe it is a really bad idea to go with a "throw the bums out" theme. There is a plethora of bums available according to this poll.
