Blue Crab Boulevard

Breakthrough In Labanon Ceasefire

It appears as if there will be a vote on a UN ceasefire plan as early as tomorrow. The deal appears to include a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops.

The parties involved in diplomatic negotiations for a UN-brokered cease-fire resolution aimed at ending the fighting in Lebanon reached a breakthrough Thursday, paving the way for the stationing of international troops in Lebanon as part of a package which would end the month-long confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah.

The UN Security Council will convene Friday to discuss the new proposal, which has been agreed to by the United States as well as France.

The sides are currently putting the finishing touches to the final wording of the resolution. The revised draft calls for a "progressive" Israeli withdrawal, a senior Lebanese political source said on Thursday.

"The Americans have moved their position. A deal with the French is very close in the next hours, but most likely on Friday," he told Reuters.

"The breakthrough is based on the inclusion in the call for a cessation of hostilities for a progressive Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory to go simultaneously with the deployment of the Lebanese army backed by reinforced UN peacekeepers."

The source said the peacekeepers would mainly be reinforced by French soldiers. As part of the deal, Hezbollah would pull out from south of the Litani river.

After 30 days, the source said, there would be a more comprehensive resolution that declares a ceasefire and sets out solutions for the Shaba Farms issue, the release of captive IDF soldiers, the release of Lebanese prisoners and the disarming of Hezbollah.

This is an interesting approach. The phased withdrawal contingent on deployment of the Lebanese army and a withdrawal of Hezbollah beyond the Litani means Hezbollah lost the war they started.

UPDATE: The IDF is not at all happy with this potential ceasefire (Donald Sensing made much the same point in comments). This may not be an optimal solution and may yet be just another Hudna until Hezbollah and their masters in Iran decide to go again. (I am not at all happy with the French troops, either, but that is another rant).

War | Gaius Thursday, 10 August , 2006

By Donald Sensing, Thursday, 10 August , 2006 @ 4:33 pm

The devil is in the details, of course, but I suspect there’s a lot of devil to be found here. I have no confidence in French troops attempting to enforce the terms. Israel’s failure to press the to military-imposed condtions of ceasefire mean that hezbollah will be the most powerful influence inside Lebanon. Hezbollah will be stronger than ever because it will dominate Lebanon politically and militarily. The lebanese national army will be nothing more than an arm of hezbollah.
By Gaius, Thursday, 10 August , 2006 @ 4:41 pm

I hope you’re wrong, but fear you’re right.
By TC@LeatherPenguin, Thursday, 10 August , 2006 @ 7:40 pm

My only question is, “what direction will these French forces be facing?”

Because we already know UNIFIL will be looking the other way.
By crosspatch, Thursday, 10 August , 2006 @ 10:57 pm

France will place troops in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah will attempt to immediately reinfiltrate the area. If France stands up to them, Hezbollah will begin a (another) bombing campaign against the French forces. The French will complain that conditions make it impossible for their forces to remaim (how in the world can one make a decent souffle’ with all those explosions going off all the time?) and they will run away. Actually they won’t TECHNICALLY run away, they will all take their annual 6 weeks of paid vacation at the same time. During that interval, Hezbollah will completely regain all the same positions they had before. The French will then declare that due to substandard accomodations, they are unwilling to return to Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel and here we go again!
By Gaius, Thursday, 10 August , 2006 @ 11:00 pm

Want to buy 1,000 French rifles?

Only been thrown down once.
By Santay, Friday, 11 August , 2006 @ 6:00 am

The US gave Olmert cover and time to stomp Hizbollah into the ground but he dithered and didn’t commit fully. We may get a cease fire but due to his timidity it’s only going to start all over again at some point.