A Desolate Future

Charles Krauthammer is predicting a bleak future for the Democratic party as their anti-war wing comes again to the forefront. These are not new arguments, but they are worth reading again.

With the defeat of Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary in Connecticut, antiwar forces are poised for a takeover of the Democratic Party. Tuesday's exhilarating victory, and the elan and electoral legitimacy gained, may carry the newly energized Democratic left to considerable success in November.

But for the Democratic Party it will be an expensive and short-lived indulgence. The Iraq war will end, as will the Bush presidency. But the larger conflict that defines our times — war on Islamic radicalism, more politely known as the war on terrorism — will continue, as the just-foiled London airliner plot unmistakably reminds us. And the reflexive antiwar sentiments underlying Ned Lamont's victory in Connecticut will prove disastrous for the Democrats in the long run — the long run beginning as early as November '08.

Consider an analogy that the antiwar types hold dear: Iraq as Vietnam. I reject the premise, but let's assume it for the purpose of following the political consequences of antiwar movements.

The anti-Vietnam War movement had its political successes. They were, as in Connecticut Tuesday, mostly internecine. One Democratic presidency was destroyed (Lyndon Johnson), as was the candidacy of his would-be successor, Hubert Humphrey.

It is a form of political and global myopia. An inability to see further than this election cycle into the future. And a complete inability to understand, much less remember, history. It is seeing the world and events as you wish them to be, not as they truly are.

It took the Democrats years to dig themselves out of that hole, helped largely by such pro-defense, pro-Gulf War senators as Al Gore and Joe Lieberman. It is all now being undone by Iraq. The party's latent antiwar fervor has resurfaced with a vengeance — in Connecticut, quite literally so.

In the short run, as in the Vietnam days, there will be "success": a purging of hawkish Democrats like Joe Lieberman. There might even be larger victories. Enough Ned Lamonts might be elected in enough states to give one or both houses of Congress to the Democrats. But even that short-term gain is uncertain. Lamont may not even win his own state. He narrowly beat Lieberman in a voter universe confined to Democrats. In November independents and Republicans will join the selection process.

But even assuming some short-term victories, where will the Democrats be when the war is over and President Bush is gone?

Lamont said in his victory speech that the time had come to "fix George Bush's failed foreign policy." Yet, as Martin Peretz pointed out in the Wall Street Journal, on Iran, the looming long-term Islamist threat, Lamont's views are risible. Lamont's alternative to the Bush Iran policy is to "bring in allies" and "use carrots as well as sticks."

Where has this man been? Negotiators with Iran have had carrots coming out of their ears in three years of fruitless negotiations. Allies? We let the British, French and Germans negotiate with Iran for those three years, only to have Iran brazenly begin accelerated uranium enrichment that continues to this day.

Lamont seems to think that we should just sit down with the Iranians and show them why going nuclear is not a good idea. This recalls Sen. William Borah's immortal reaction in September 1939 upon hearing that Hitler had invaded Poland to start World War II: "Lord, if I could only have talked with Hitler, all this might have been avoided."

Naive amateurs wrapped in self-righteousness powered and funded by the far left. This is the future the Democrats are setting themselves up for. They paid a 40 year price for their last drift in the anti-war direction. This time it may be even worse.

Details Of Plot Emerging

The Washington Post has an article that begins to show how large and extensive the investigation into the thwarted terror attacks was. It appears to have started with an anonymous tip from a worried British Muslim over a year ago. Several hundred investigators were involved in the investigation.

It all began with a tip: In the aftermath of the July 7, 2005, suicide bombings on London's transit system, British authorities received a call from a worried member of the Muslim community, reporting general suspicions about an acquaintance.

From that vague but vital piece of information, according to a senior European intelligence official, British authorities opened the investigation into what they said turned out to be a well-coordinated and long-planned plot to bomb multiple transatlantic flights heading toward the United States — an assault designed to rival the scope and lethality of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackings.

By late 2005, the probe had expanded to involve several hundred investigators on three continents. They kept dozens of suspects under close surveillance for months, even as some of the plotters traveled between Britain and Pakistan to raise money, find recruits and refine their scheme, according to interviews with U.S. and European counterterrorism officials.

Precise details of the plot — how many planes, their destinations and the date — remain unknown. The shape of the operation changed regularly as the would-be bombers considered which transatlantic flights to target and prepared for a practice run, which was expected to take place in the next few days, U.S. law enforcement officials said.

Investigators eventually pieced together enough information from a blizzard of stakeouts, tips and wiretaps to make clear that something big was in the works, and that the plotters' preparations were nearing an end.

"It's not like three weeks ago all of a sudden MI5 knew about this plot and went to work," added a U.S. law enforcement official, speaking of the British security service. "They'd had a concern about these guys for some time — for months. Details started to emerge, and it became clear over the last couple weeks the nature of the threat and the individuals," said the official, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity.

At this point, US officials have no evidence that any of the plotters are at large within the US. Several of the arrested suspects did make phone calls to the US during the course of the investigation. (One hopes they are busily following up that bit of information).

This appears to have been a very complex plan with a large number of people involved. There is concern, however, that not all the conspirators were identified and captured.

Some U.S. counterterrorism officials said plans originally were to allow the conspiracy to develop even further. But U.S. and British investigators made a sudden decision this week to close down the operation after they became increasingly worried that there were other bombers they had been unable to locate or identify, U.S. officials said.

British Home Secretary John Reid said that "the police are confident that the main players have been accounted for" and are in custody. But U.S. and European authorities said the widespread ban on carrying liquids onto flights was imposed because investigators were worried more conspirators could be at large.

British police conducted numerous searches and raids Wednesday and Thursday as they detained at least 24 people in three cities. British officials would not say if they were able to recover any physical evidence or bomb-making materials. Neither would they describe what kind of liquid explosives the suspects were allegedly planning to use.

U.S. counterterrorism officials said the explosive was a peroxide-based compound, but would not give further details. One reason, they said, is that the chemicals are easy to obtain and difficult to detect by airport security screeners.

Authorities are trying to "figure out how to prevent something similar from getting through," said a senior U.S. intelligence official. "We're learning what you can about this material, whether it opens another hole in our security, and we have to figure out how to close it."

I predict a carry-on luggage ban will be coming sooner or later.

India Alerted To Terror Threat

India is on a heightened terror alert after the US warned of a threat, possibly tied to the plan broken up by British authorities yesterday.

An e-mail sent to American citizens registered with the embassy said New Delhi, the capital, and Bombay, the country's financial and entertainment hub, were the targets of the alleged plot, and that the attacks were believed to be planned around India's Independence Day, which falls on Aug. 15.

The embassy confirmed that it had sent the e-mail, and the chief secretary of India's Maharshtra state, where Bombay is located, confirmed that authorities had intelligence about a possible terror plot.

But the chief secretary, D.K. Sankaran, refused to provide additional details, saying only that "adequate security measures are being taken at sensitive installations, offices and areas."

That was clear on the approach road to New Delhi's international airport, where guards armed with assault rifles stopped cars, buses and trucks, checking IDs and searching some vehicles.

However, Indian Home Ministry officials said they had received no notice of the possible plot. Home Secretary D.K. Duggal called the warning "innocuous," saying it was an internal embassy matter.

Word of the alleged plot came a day after British police said they had thwarted another terrorist plot, possibly just days away, to blow up U.S.-bound jetliners over the Atlantic.

Investigators described a plan on the scale of the Sept. 11 attacks that would use common electronic devices to detonate liquid explosives to bring down as many as 10 planes in near-simultaneous strikes.

The U.S. Embassy's warning for India said the "likely targets include major airports, key central Indian government offices, and major gathering places such as hotels and markets."

It urged American citizens to maintain a low profile, and be alert and attentive to their surroundings between Aug. 11 and Aug. 16.

Officials in India are downplaying the warning to the Indian press, however:

"It is normal for them to issue advisories for their mission staff to maintain a low profile. This is strictly their internal matter. I have no comments whatsoever," he said.

Duggal said the US exercise was similar to the action that the Centre takes whenever it gets an intelligence input.

"We do handle it (input) in an appropriate manner. We take all appropriate action. We sensitise all concerned agencies, state governments, we reinforce where it is required. It is the job of the government and home ministry to do their best to provide security and safety to the people and citizens of the country," he said.

Duggal said on the basis on inputs received from various agencies and sources, appropriate action is taken. He said everything required was being done.

Ahead of the Independence Day, he said, every possible measure has been put in place to thwart attempts by Pakistan- based militant groups to unleash terror in the country.

Delhi Police last night arrested at New Delhi station two terrorists of the Lashker-e-Taiba outfit, which is believed to be working with Al-Qaida. One of the terrorists was a Pakistani national.

It's hard to tell if the AP report is interpreting already higher security put in place for the Independence Day celebrations as something else entirely.