Israeli Forces Reach The Litani
In a massive push, Israeli units have reached the Litani River in Southern Lebanon. This is a very rapid advance, and is somewhat unexpected.
The units were part of a massive force that flooded into Lebanon, trying to seize as much territory as possible before a U.N. cease-fire comes into effect. The objective was to control southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, about 18 miles from the Israeli border, before handing over the area to the Lebanese army and U.N. troops.
Meanwhile, both sides in the war indicated they would accept a U.N. cease-fire plan to stop heavy fighting still raging in southern Lebanon.
Airstrikes killed at least 19 people in Lebanon, including 15 in one village, and Hezbollah rockets wounded at least five people in Israel. Long columns of Israeli tanks, soldiers and armored personnel carriers streamed over the border.
More than 50 helicopters ferried Israeli commandos into southern Lebanon in what was called the biggest such operation in Israel's history. It was part of an all-put push to drive Hezbollah fighters behind the Litani River, about 18 miles from the border, before the truce.
One has to wonder why they waited this long. AP, still carry water for Hezbollah, says resistance was "fierce", but it looks like a walkover when the advance is made this quickly.
By crosspatch, Saturday, 12 August , 2006 @ 12:54 pm
Israel could have reached the Litani any time they wanted to. It is nothing to use helicopters to drop forces along the river and with mecahnized forces, bypass the towns and take countryside. The problem is that Hezbollah isn’t in the countryside. They are in the towns.
Israel had no idea that it was going to take this long for the UN to act. Had they done at the start what they did last night, they would have had thousands of troops flooded over Southern Lebanon that would be simply targets for the Hezbollah fighters holed up in the towns all around them. Taking that mich territory would have probably sped up UN action and left Israel holding lots of land and having killed few Hezbollah.
Instead, what Israel apparently did was strike directly at the Hezbollah strongholds first with Bent Jbayal one of the first places attacked. Israel cleared the border towns of Hezbollah while destroying bridges and roads making it more difficult for Hezbollah to rearm, resupply, and reinforce. Rabbit punch assaults directly on Hezbollah strongholds and an eventual push to completely clear Hezbollahs main defensive positions up to about 5 miles inside Lebanon. I believe this is so that had the UN come to an agreement sooner, at least Israel would have prepared the area for a multinational force to prevent Hezbollah from re-infiltrating. It is much easier to prevent Hezbollah from moving back in and building new fighting positions, tunnels, bunkers, etc. than it is to eject Hezbollah from existing ones. Israel is preparing the area for the buffer force by clearing out centers of Hezbollah fortification, ejecting fighters from the area, and killing those who don’t leave all because a UN force probably won’t have the stomach to do it themselves and Hezbollah is not likely to leave on their own no matter how sternly worded the UN memo.
The important thing to look at is the physical situation, not the political rhetoric. By the end of the day tomorrow, Israel will have whatever fighters remain in Southern Lebanon trapped between the Litani and the Israeli border. Hezbollah’s infrastructure South of Beirut is gone. Much of their political offices, money storage locations, financial buildings, etc. are also gone. Hezbollah is going to be left in a much weaker physical position inside Lebanon. Christian, Sunni, and Druze organizations have not suffered this damage. They will be relatively stronger and their populations have not suffered the economic losses either. Their positions relative to the Hezbollah supporting community will be stronger.
But most importantly, the UN agreement allows the IDF to contine fighting as long as Hezbollah resists. Hezbollah has said they support the agreement but will fight until a complete Israeli withdrawal, which probably means Israel will continue until Hezbollah is wiped out of the area South of the Litani. When a UN force arrives in that area, their job is going to be easier. Rather than having to push Hezbollah out, they will simply need to prevent Hezbollah from returning and rebuilding their defenses.
By Gaius, Saturday, 12 August , 2006 @ 12:59 pm
You’re probably the most optimistic person I’ve heard on this situation.
By crosspatch, Saturday, 12 August , 2006 @ 2:03 pm
I believe that is because many are paying more attention to political rhetoric than trying to take an objective view of the physical reality on the ground. If I were Hezbollah, I would be seriously sweating. The full impact of Israel’s actions won’t be felt till winter. Hezbollah’s support base has been delt a significant economic blow. I read of apple orchards in Southern Lebanon not being harvested.
Israel now has UN clearance to continue attacking Hezbollah for as long as Hezbollah continues to fight. Nazrallah says he will fight for as long as there are Israelis in Lebanon … so, for the first time in history, Israel has a UN okay to do what they need to do.
By crosspatch, Saturday, 12 August , 2006 @ 2:10 pm
May I attempt to illustrate from a different angle? In the past, Hezbollah has kidnapped Israelis, Israel would lob some shells across the border, maybe do an airstrike then there would be a prisoner exchange, both sides returned to the status quo and in about a year’s time it would be repeated.
This time Hezbollah kidnapped Israelis and they end up with nothing like the status quo. They end up having a lot of their fortifications destroyed, fighters killed, infrastructure destroyed. When all is said and done they end up with thousands more foreign troops in their heartland with more teeth in their mandate and a UN resolution that allows Israel to kick the crap out of Hezbollah if they try to do it again in the future.
Definately not a return to the status quo this time. Hezbollah is by no real measure victorious in all of this. They have taken a major setback. Iran will have a much tougher time now using Hezbollah as a future prozy army to attack Israel.
By Quilly Mammoth, Saturday, 12 August , 2006 @ 2:40 pm
Israel attempts to address the long term question of how is Hizzbollah contained in the long run. Israel knew that it is impossible to completely destroy Hizzbollah. However, it was possible to decimate Hizzbollah _and_ change the economic situation to allow the other players in Lebanon to the chance to gain ascendancy over the Shia’ and Hizzbollah.
Remember, the Shia’ and the Hezzies never supported the recent push by the Lebanese people for a democracy. Why would they? As puppets of Syria and Iran they had plenty of money and power. Which they used to control the Lebanese government even after Syrians drastically reduced their presence. After the fighting is over while the Shia’ are trying to rebuild the other minorities will be pushing forward.
By Dusty, Saturday, 12 August , 2006 @ 11:20 pm
Hezballah has taken a huge economic hit, as crosspatch notes. The question is, how much of it will be rebuilt with worldwide economic aid to Lebanon. That will be the thing to watch.
I suspect it will follow the old line “No, I won’t spend the $10,000 you give me for my mother’s operation on the horses … I have money for the track.
BTW, does the UN have that new and improved financial tracking system installed yet?
By diana, Sunday, 13 August , 2006 @ 9:52 am
“srael now has UN clearance to continue attacking Hezbollah for as long as Hezbollah continues to fight. Nazrallah says he will fight for as long as there are Israelis in Lebanon …”
Where does it say this in the cease-fire agreement? I missed that part.