Who Is Really Worried?

David Broder informs us that he has spoken to Republicans who are very worried about November. I'll take him at his word. There are people who should be worried.

The impression these Republicans had is that support for GOP candidates had nose-dived this summer — in part because of the chaos conveyed by the daily televised scenes of destruction in Iraq and Lebanon and in part because of the dismal reputation built by the Republican Congress that is home to many of the endangered GOP candidates.

It may be that the cease-fire in the Israel-Lebanon war and the shift of focus to the terrorist plot thwarted last week by the British will change the political environment. But Republicans were deeply worried as August began.

I had dinner one night with a group of Ohio Republicans, all with many years of experience in state politics and none directly engaged in this year's gubernatorial race. One of them said, "I'm afraid this could be another 1982," a year when recession pushed unemployment to 15 percent and cost the Republicans the governorship. Another said, "I'd settle right now for another 1982. I'm afraid it will be another 1974," the year of the Watergate election, when Democrats swept everything in sight.

Ohio may be particularly vulnerable because the economy in parts of the state where the auto industry remains vital has been hurt by layoffs, and because a series of scandals has left retiring Gov. Bob Taft with approval ratings in the teens. But similar concerns are voiced across the Midwest.

Here's the thing though. At the end of the article, Broder mis-characterizes an AP-Ipsos poll. His words don't match the poll results.

That prediction is supported by the AP-Ipsos poll released last week. It showed a 33 percent job approval score for Bush and a 29 percent job approval score for the Republican Congress. On a test of voter preference for the midterm congressional elections, Democrats had a staggering 18-point lead, 55 percent to 37 percent. You can see why Republicans are worried.

Ok, bad numbers indeed. But Broder identifies it as the "Republican Congress". That is not what the poll asked. The poll asked about Congress. Period. No party affiliation. The exact question:

Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way Congress is handling its job?

Note that party is not mentioned in any way. This question captures dissatisfaction with both parties equally, there is no way to attribute it to either party. Here is the other thing that is very skewed in the poll. Initial identification of respondents party:

Republican ………………………………… 27
Democrat…………………………………… 35
Independent ………………………………. 24
None of these…………………………….. 13
Not sure…………………………………… 1

Clarified after additional questions:

Strongly Republican …………………….. 16
Moderately Republican…………………. 23
Definitely Independent/neither……….. 7
Moderately Democrat …………………… 32
Strongly Democrat……………………….. 21
Refused/not sure……………………….. 1
Total Republican ………………………. 39
Total Democrat …………………………. 53

This sample is almost laughably skewed. There is an 8% skew just in the initial sample. The clarification skews it even further to 14%. That's almost enough to account for the result. So who is actually worried to be spinning this poll this furiously?

Syrian Dreams

Dennis Ross, writing in the Washington Post informs us that the real key to disarming Hezbollah and Hamas is Syria. Syria must be made to turn away from the terror groups and work in its own self interest.

The more determined Syria is to frustrate implementation of the resolution, the more the international force will need a capability and a mandate to be aggressive in stopping efforts to get arms to Hezbollah and in preventing its restoration as a fighting force. Will the international force have intensive inspection capability? Will it be deployed along all routes into Lebanon from Syria and be able to inspect all relevant vehicular traffic? Will it set up checkpoints on north-south access routes in Lebanon to do the same? And can 15,000 soldiers be organized to perform these roles while also preventing Hezbollah from training and rebuilding its fortifications in the area from the Litani River to the Israeli border?

In theory it's possible that the multinational force will be able to meet these challenges. But given how quickly it must be constituted and deployed, there is every reason to believe it will not be able to accomplish such a mission anytime soon. Even in the best case, the forces are not likely to be aggressive if it means disrupting commerce between Syria and Lebanon or actively depriving Hezbollah of weapons that it seeks. (Already the French foreign minister has declared that he does not foresee disarming Hezbollah.)

Well and good so far, here's where it gets dicey:

Working in tandem, the Bush administration and the French should try to change the Syrian calculus. Syria sees Hezbollah as a card — something to be exploited to make Syria a factor in the region or to be traded in the right circumstances. We should create a one-two punch with the French to make clear that Syria has something significant to lose by not cutting off Hezbollah, and that it has something meaningful to gain from changing course.

Surely, if the international force is seen as credible and determined, it can convince Assad that Hezbollah is going to be contained and that its value to Syria could diminish. But Assad must also see that Syria will pay an unmistakable price if it tries to block implementation of Resolution 1701. That price could be a joint French-E.U. and American effort to isolate Syria economically if it is unwilling to end its material support for Hezbollah.

The Europeans currently provide a critical economic lifeline to the Syrians. French President Jacques Chirac could credibly warn Assad that if arms flow to Hezbollah and threaten French troops, then Europe will cut all economic ties to Syria. Conversely, if Syria ended its military relationship with Hezbollah and accepted the Lebanese government's effort to reestablish its authority, the European Union could promise new and meaningful economic benefits to Damascus.

In such a scenario, the European Union would be Act 1. Act 2 would involve the United States. The Bush administration, which has expressed an interest in weaning Syria away from Iran, won't be able to do that without talking to the Syrians. And it won't be able to do it by continuing to make threats that have no consequences. It will not be enough to continue saying, "The Syrians know what they need to do."

The United States must reinforce a tough E.U. message with one of its own to Assad, namely this: We are prepared to implement a range of sanctions, including the Syrian Accountability Act and executive orders that would make it difficult for companies and financial institutions that do business in Syria to conduct business in the United States.

The idea has merits. Unfortunately, it also has the French. It is about as likely as pigs to sprout wings as it would be to assume the French would actually make such a gesture to Syria much less follow through on it. The French are already expressing no interest in disarming Hezbollah. If they are unwilling to face up to the puppets, how likely are they to face the puppet masters?

Freezing Predicted In Infernal Regions

Never saw this one coming. Seriously. A number of Hollywood heavyweights including Nichole Kidman, Michael Douglas, Dennis Hopper, Sylvester Stallone, Bruce Willis, Danny De Vito, Don Johnson, James Woods, Kelly Preston, Patricia Heaton, William Hurt, Ridley Scott, Tony Scott, Michael Mann, Dick Donner and Sam Raimi have all signed a full page advertisement in the LA Times (to be published 8/17/06) condemning Hezbollah and Hamas.

The actress, joined by 84 other high-profile Hollywood stars, directors, studio bosses and media moguls, has taken out a powerfully-worded full page advertisement in today's Los Angeles Times newspaper.

It specifically targets "terrorist organisations" such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.

"We the undersigned are pained and devastated by the civilian casualties in Israel and Lebanon caused by terrorist actions initiated by terrorist organisations such as Hezbollah and Hamas," the ad reads.

"If we do not succeed in stopping terrorism around the world, chaos will rule and innocent people will continue to die.

"We need to support democratic societies and stop terrorism at all costs."

Wow. This is a big deal. Funny thing is, I just paused in writing this post and checked all the entertainment wires. Not a single mention of this. Not one. Instead we get it from an Australian paper. What's up with that?

Important Health Information

A serious warning: If you have what you think is a spider bite that will not heal, or a pimple that just won't get better you may actually have something much more serious. There has been a huge upswing in antibiotic resistant staph infections.

A once-rare drug-resistant germ now appears to cause more than half of all skin infections treated in U.S. emergency rooms, say researchers who documented the superbug's startling spread in the general population.

Many victims mistakenly thought they just had spider bites that wouldn't heal, not drug-resistant staph bacteria. Only a decade ago, these germs were hardly ever seen outside of hospitals and nursing homes.

Doctors also were caught off-guard — most of them unwittingly prescribed medicines that do not work against the bacteria.

"It is time for physicians to realize just how prevalent this is," said Dr. Gregory Moran of Olive View-UCLA Medical Center, who led the study.

Another author, Dr. Rachel Gorwitz of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said: "I think no one was aware of the extent of the problem."

Skin infections can be life-threatening if bacteria get into the bloodstream. Drug-resistant strains can also cause a vicious type of pneumonia and even "flesh-eating" wounds.

The good news is that the condition is treatable, but you really do need to see a doctor. It has become so widespread that doctors are now treating all of these as if they were resistant staph infections.

Real Cujo Killed?

Well, not so much Cujo as a demon dog? A strange creature was killed in Turner, Maine. It appears to bring an odd legend to an end. There have been sightings of the weird creature for the past fifteen years and a number of dogs and other pets have allegedly been killed by the beast over the years.

The animal was found near power lines along Route 4 on Saturday, apparently struck by a car while chasing a cat. The carcass was photographed and inspected by several people who live in the area, but nobody is sure exactly what it is.

Michelle O'Donnell of Turner spotted the animal near her yard about a week before it was killed. She called it a "hybrid mutant of something."

"It was evil, evil looking. And it had a horrible stench I will never forget," she told the Sun Journal of Lewiston. "We locked eyes for a few seconds and then it took off. I've lived in Maine my whole life and I've never seen anything like it."

For the past 15 years, residents across Androscoggin County have reported seeing and hearing a mysterious animal with chilling monstrous cries and eyes that glow in the night. The animal has been blamed for attacking and killing a Doberman pinscher and a Rottweiler the past couple of years.

People from Litchfield, Sabattus, Greene, Turner, Lewiston and Auburn have come forward to speak of a mystery monster that roams the woods. Nobody knows for sure what it is, and theories have ranged from a hyena or dingo to a fisher or coydog, an offspring of a coyote and a wild dog.

So far I have not been able to locate any pictures of the beast. Wildlife officials declined to go look at the dead animal and scavengers have destroyed the body at this point. I'll post a link to pictures if I run them down. Conversely, if anyone has a link, please post it in the comments section.

Stephen King will doubtless be incorporating the devil dog into a story at some point!

UPDATE: Thanks to Don Singleton and Inland Empire View we have photos. And whatever it is, it is butt ugly.

Man Arrested In JonBenet Ramsey Case

Wow - talk about out of the blue. A man has been arrested in Thailand on unrelated charges, but authorities are flying there from Colorado to present documents. It looks like they are going to try to extradite.

Federal officials familiar with the case, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the man was being held in Bangkok on unrelated sex charges.

The girl was found beaten and strangled in the basement of the family's home in Boulder, Colo., on Dec. 26, 1996.

Law enforcement officials from Boulder were flying to Bangkok to present Thai authorities with documents in the slaying of the 6-year-old beauty pageant contestant, officials in Washington said. They asked to remain anonymous pending an announcement in Colorado.

The girl's parents, Patsy and John Ramsey, had been under an "umbrella of suspicion" in JonBenet's death. The Ramseys said an intruder killed their daughter. A grand jury investigation in Boulder ended with no indictments, and no arrests had been made in the case.

Patsy Ramsey died in July.

It is too bad Patsy Ramsey did not live to see this. One presumes they have some information about this man that makes him a suspect in the case.

UPDATE: Reuters is reporting that the suspect has confessed and gave details that have never been released in the case.

Hazleton Update

As promised, several groups have filed a lawsuit against the town of Hazleton, Pennsylvania. I've been following this story for quite some time and just wanted to make sure this update got posted.

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Civil rights campaigners sued the Pennsylvania town of Hazleton on Tuesday, seeking to block one of America's toughest local laws against illegal immigrants.

The suit says Hazelton's City Council violated the U.S. constitution when it passed a law denying business permits to companies that hire illegal aliens and fining landlords who rent homes to them.

The measure, which also establishes English as the town's official language, has made Hazleton a focus of the national debate on immigration. The plaintiffs say their suit is the first in the country to challenge a local immigration ordinance.

The suit was filed in federal court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania by groups including the Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund and the American Civil Liberties Union. They accuse Hazleton of overstepping its authority on the federal matter of immigration and say the law discriminates against immigrants.

"This mean-spirited law is wrong for many reasons but the most obvious is that the city does not have the power to make its own immigration laws," Omar Jadwat, an attorney for the ACLU's Immigrants' Rights Project, said in a statement.

Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, a proponent of the Illegal Immigration Relief Act Ordinance, says illegal immigration from Mexico and Central America has increased crime, overburdened schools and hospitals, and eroded the quality of life in the town of some 31,000 people.

Barletta predicted the law would survive a court challenge and said he would take it to the Supreme Court if necessary. "We're not going to be bullied," he said in a statement.

It is unfortunate that the Federal government still cannot understand that this is a major problem for municipalities all across the country. If the Feds will not step up, the locals are forced to do something.

Munich Deja Vu

Bryan at Hot Air has a post up discussing this grim article by Arthur Herman in the New York Post. Bryan points out that Syria has been emboldened by the events in Lebanon and is threatening Israel over the Golan Heights.

SYRIA has warned Israel that the occupation of the Golan Heights “cannot last forever” and said Syrians will emulate Hizbollah to recover their land.

“We say to the forces occupying our land that our people warn you that they will not allow our land to be occupied forever,” the government’s daily Ath-Thawra said.

“You must understand that our people will fight the way the Lebanese resistance (Hizbollah) fought you,” it added.

“Our people will fight you … on every inch of the Golan,” it said.

However, the newspaper urged decision-makers in Israel “to open up to new perspectives”, noting that some in the Jewish state were in favour of making peace with Syria.

That last part is just a cynical play to the Israeli left which, like the American left, is mostly full of narcisstic dolts who don’t believe the world is dangerous as long their own country keeps its sword in the sheath. And it’s likely to work to some extent. You can’t overestimate the weakness and gullibility of the left. You just can’t.

The rest is a roadmap to anything but peace. The Syrians and Iranians think they have hit upon a strategy to destroy Israel: Attack it with standoff weapons like Katyushas, goading it into fighting a ground war that frightens the world into halting Israel’s defensive actions. The end game is that Israel can’t defend its borders, it becomes demoralized and then the Arabs and Iranians move in for the kill. In response to the standoff attacks, Israel has the choice of non-response, weak response or brutal response–there’s no way to uproot an entrenched army of any size without using some very nasty tactics and weapons….

Grim indeed.

Hosting Service Problem

Well, this is probably like asking you to raise your hand if you're absent, but just to let folks know, the hosting service that the Crabitat uses is telling me that there is a router problem. It is not on their end, but on the trunk end. They are working on it, but it is getting a bit difficult to get to Blue Crab Boulevard (And a bunch of other domains, I would imagine).

It has already cost me two posts and a page update so far today, I might add. Imagine my pleasure.

So if you can read this, congratulations. Go buy a lottery ticket, it's your lucky day! If you are absent, raise your hand…….

Ask Yourself This Question

Would a school that made children spend nine hours each day memorizing the bible be acceptable? With no other courses taught, just the memorization. Answer honestly before you read the extended entry and understand why you answered whatever way you did.

Improving Security

Jim over at bRight and Early is rounding up quotes from Democrats on how to improve airport security. Go over and contribute is you have any. Heck, I'd add ones from Republicans too. Might be interesting.

Your Money Is Completely Safe

In Malaysian banks. Because the thieves are too inept to actually get their hands on it.

Thieves toiled for almost an hour with a stolen excavator to dig two cash machines out of a bank branch in the northeastern town of Kuala Terengganu Tuesday.

But they were forced to flee empty-handed when the excavator's digging arm got stuck in the ceiling of the bank, Malaysian newspapers reported Wednesday.

A week ago, thieves in northwest Penang state used a rope to tie an automatic teller machine to a truck and haul it through a glass wall and down a flight of stairs — only to discover they had grabbed a check-deposit machine by mistake.

In another recent case, thieves loaded a cash machine onto a truck but abandoned it when they discovered it had no cash.

Professor Moriarty they are not. 

Florida Grows New Species Of Tree

Authorities in Cape Coral, Florida report that there is a brand new species of pine tree growing locally. They found this out during a thunder storm. The tree was struck by lightning and exploded. Literally exploded. Debris was thrown over a two block radius, damaging 17 homes. Sections of the tree were found up to 500 feet away.

"In 18 years with the fire department, I've never seen anything like that," Deputy Fire Chief Christopher Mikell told AFP.

He said the 12-meter (40-foot) pine tree was hit by lightning during a thunderstorm on Monday and exploded "almost like a bomb."

The tree had already been struck by lightning last year, apparently during a hurricane, causing decay that may have produced pockets of gases, said Mikell.

One person was lightly injured and treated on the spot, and 17 houses were damaged, "two to the point of being uninhabitable," said Mikell.

"Sections of the tree were found as far as 500 feet (150 meters) away. … There was damage within two blocks of the location," he said.

In honor of Wile  E. Coyote creator Chuck Jones, I submit that the new species should be named pinus kaboomus.

Lebanon Will Deploy Army - Will Not Disarm Hezbollah

The Lebanese cabinet today approved the deployment of the army to Southern Lebanon. They will not disarm Hezbollah and they will not remove Hezbollah from the region, effectively negating the UN resolution.

BEIRUT, Lebanon - The Lebanese Cabinet on Wednesday approved a plan to deploy the Lebanese army south of the Litani River starting the next day, a key demand of a U.N.-imposed cease-fire that halted 34 days of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

The government, however, apparently skirted another key demand of the United Nations, the disarmament of Hezbollah.

"It was approved," Interior Minister Ahmed Fatfat told reporters of the army deployment as the meeting broke up.

The twice-delayed meeting approved sending the army to the south of the country where it will slowly take over territory from which Israeli forces have begun to withdraw.

A top official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak before a formal announcement was made, said the army deployment would start on Thursday.

In the strongest indication yet that the Islamic militant group would not disarm in the region or withdraw but rather melt into the local population and hide their weapons, Hezbollah's top official in south Lebanon said the guerrillas welcomed the Lebanese army's additional deployment in the south.

"Just like in the past, Hezbollah had no visible military presence and there will not be any visible presence now," Sheik Nabil Kaouk told reporters in Tyre on Wednesday.

It was the first meeting of the Cabinet, which includes two Hezbollah ministers, had not met since the cease-fire went into effect on Monday, owing to political divisions over the army deployment and Hezbollah's arsenal, which includes rocket launchers and positions that have survived the Israeli onslaught.

The Lebanese army has been preparing troops for the past few days for the deployment. The Cabinet approved the requirement of the U.N. cease-fire resolution requirement that the army sends 15,000 soldiers to the south to be joined by an equal number of U.N. peacekeepers to patrol the region between the Israeli border and the Litani River, 18 miles north of the border with Israel.

They made a mockery of the UN in record time. Not even an attempt to disguise their duplicity.

Decline At The Times

Thomas Lifson, from The American Thinker (picked up over at Real Clear Politics) has a good assessment of what has been happening at the New York Times under Pinch Sulzberger. He also point out the even the left is starting to turn on Pinch with a new hit piece in Vanity Fair.

But it is one thing for websites "out there" beyond the Hudson to point out that Pinch is killing the family business, and quite another for the man dubbed "the King of New York Media" by The New Republic to point out that disaster looms ahead for members of the Ochs-Sulzberger clan, who cash dividend checks, and who also control the election for the board of directors. They might start thinking seriously about the attractiveness of professional management for the enterprise which sustains what must be a sophisticated and pleasant lifestyle.

Michael Wolff, longtime writer for New York Magazine, took to the pages of no less than Vanity Fair, the glossy definition of au courant attitudes for New Yorkers of a certain economic and social status, to openly mock Pinch in what can only be described as a "hit-piece."

What gives?

Why the Left is Starting to Hate Pinch

Anyone who understands the importance of the Times in setting the agenda for the entire media establishment realizes that without the Times to lead the way, lesser media properties in broadcasting and publishing might stray away from the left wing party line. Fox News has done better than any other media startup in recent memory by openly grazing in the conservative meadows. Despite intense derision by the Times and others in the Left establishment, it has prospered far more than they.

It simply would not do to have other media outlets beyond talk radio emulate this course. Virtually the entire media establishment, from home town dailies to network newscasts, takes its cues from the Times. Without a vibrant Times, ideological diversity in the media might proliferate.

Almost every ambitious newspaper reporter in the United States must at some point(s) fantasize about breaking a big story, getting noticed by the Times, and moving on up to what remains (for the moment) the pinnacle of prestige in American journalism. Reporters for lesser newspapers in Minneapolis, Montgomery or Missoula don't really make much money, not compared to lawyers and investment bankers. They are mostly in their line of work for prestige, excitement, and the "ability to make a difference." For such folk, toeing the line set by the Grey Lady helps them feel better about themselves, even if the call never comes. The Times' expectations about what defines good journalism serve as a standard by which journalists measure themselves.

Lifson goes on to pretty well damn Sulzberger's leadership of the family business, more importantly, he also brings this fact back out into the light:

But the Times is steadily becoming damaged goods. Its prestige is not what it once was. Jayson Blair, Howell Raines, Judith Miller, and other mere employees have done plenty of damage. Just last weekend (no doubt too late for Wolff's deadline), current executive editor Bill Keller made the jaw-dropping admission that he had lied to his readers about his decision not to publish a story on the NSA telephone intercept program before the 2004 presidential election, a matter of great concern to the Left. Even worse, Keller had a guilty conscience about the lie, but did not fess up until caught in an inconsistency and questioned by the paper's public editor, Byron Calame.

The rest of the media has done an excellent job of ignoring this major scandal. The man who sets the standards for the standard-setting newspaper, on which they model their own professionalism, has admitted to being a liar. And covering it up.

"It was probably inelegant wording," Mr. Keller said, who added later, "I don't know what was in my head at the time."

While everyone has the experience of having words come out the wrong way, honorable men and women correct the mistake before a year has passed, especially when the mistake becomes the basis of a large public controversy. But not the executive editor of the Times. He is on the record as tolerating a lie which he knows to be a lie.

Most significantly, the only boss Bill Keller has, Pinch Sulzberger, has publicly said nothing. No firing, no public reprimand, no exile for the lying liar, to use Al Franken's phrase. So the company is now on the record as regarding lying as tolerable, maybe even normal.

This is not the way to burnish a brand name.

Let's get this quite straight. Keller admitted to making a lie that should have gotten him fired. It would have ended in termination at any responsible news outlet. That Sulzberger has ignored it says a lot about the man. My prediction that Keller would be gone by the end of summer may end up being wrong only because of Sulzberger's protection. In which they will both be gone by the next shareholder's meeting.