ABC News is reporting that US intelligence officials suspect that North Korea may be gearing up for a nuclear test. Although it has long been known that they have nuclear material and that the North Koreans have admitted having bombs, none has ever been tested. (Commenter and fellow blogger Crosspatch had mentioned a suspicion that the North Koreans might just be up to such a thing as a test a while back).
Aug. 17, 2006 — There is new evidence that North Korea may be preparing for an underground test of a nuclear bomb, U.S. officials told ABC News.
"It is the view of the intelligence community that a test is a real possibility," said a senior State Department official.
A senior military official told ABC News that a U.S. intelligence agency has recently observed "suspicious vehicle movement" at a suspected North Korean test site.
The activity includes the unloading of large reels of cable outside P'unggye-yok, an underground facility in northeast North Korea. Cables can be used in nuclear testing to connect an underground test site to outside observation equipment. The intelligence was brought to the attention of the White House last week.
Even before this most recent intelligence, there has been growing concern within the U.S. government that North Korea has been moving toward a nuclear test. North Korea is believed to have enough nuclear material to build as many as a dozen nuclear bombs, but it has never tested one. A successful test would remove any doubt that North Korea is a nuclear power.
"What does he have to lose?" asked one senior military official, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.
On July 4, North Korea conducted seven ballistic missile tests, which provoked international condemnation, including a unanimous United States Security Council resolution condemning its actions. A nuclear test, however, would be seen as a much greater provocation than the missile tests. Only seven other nations in the world have ever conducted nuclear tests.
U.S. officials fear a nuclear test could provoke a nuclear arms race in East Asia, forcing Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear weapons.
This is by no means a certainty, but it is disquieting.
I have long suspected that the August 22 “answer” to our demands that Iran stop enrichment was going to be a joint NorK/Iran nuclear test. Iran and North Korean missile and nuclear programs are joined at the hip. We need to fix that.