Reading Tea Leaves

Here's a funny thing. Tonight, I received a call from the Rasmussen "Robopoll". A robot asked me a number of political questions, some specific to the state I live in, many on national issues. There were questions on the president, candidates for governor, national issues - pretty much the works. All delivered in a pleasant, female robotic voice. I punched my keys and gave my answers. It only took a few minutes. We'll come back to that.

I just read EJ Dionne's column on what he terms a "Republican Retreat" on Iraq. He makes quite a lot out of a poll that shows slipping support for the war in Iraq. Then he cites a number of Republicans who have "distanced" themselves from the president and Iraq policy. All are in tight races.

That poll finding, from a New York Times-CBS News survey, came to life on the campaign trail when Rep. Chris Shays (R-Conn.), one of the most articulate supporters of the war, announced last Thursday that he favored a time frame for withdrawing troops.

Shays is in a tough race for reelection against Democrat Diane Farrell, who has made opposition to the war a central issue. After his 14th trip to Iraq, Shays announced that "the only way we are able to encourage some political will on the part of Iraqis is to have a timeline for troop withdrawal."

In July Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.) returned from Iraq with an equally grim view. Americans, he said, lacked "strategic control" of the streets of Baghdad, and he called for a "limited troop withdrawal — to send the Iraqis a message." Just the month before, Gutknecht had told his fellow House members that "now is not the time to go wobbly" on Iraq.

Nearly as significant as the new support for troop withdrawals is the effort of many Republicans to criticize President Bush without taking a firm stand on when the troops should come home.

Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), facing a challenge from Democrat Patrick Murphy, an Iraq war veteran, took a page from former president Bill Clinton's playbook by triangulating between Murphy and the president. A Fitzpatrick mailing sent earlier this month said that Fitzpatrick favored a "better, smarter plan in Iraq" that "says NO to both extremes: No to President Bush's 'stay the course' strategy . . . and no to Patrick Murphy's 'cut and run' approach."

Notice: A Republican is suggesting that Bush's Iraq policy is extreme. That would not have happened in 2004.

Now, I know Dionne has been around more than long enough on the political scene to know that candidates for office often try to snuggle up to or shy away from various policies and issues depending on what may help them get elected. He's also been around long enough to know this is a time honored tradition in every political party in any given year. The tighter the race, the more likely the candidate is to try to defuse the other candidate's issues by either getting closer or farther away, depending on a lot of different circumstances.

In other words, Dionne knows darn well he is drawing conclusions based on what amounts to nothing more than business as usual. His waving the poll around as proof is particularly useless as a justification. Getting back to that Rasmussen poll I mentioned. I dutifully listened to each question and the instructions on each one. Then I punched the keys of the phone to answer.

And I lied on every single answer - across the board. Every. Single. One.

Sure you want to trust polls?

No Charges For Ramsey Suspect

Reports are coming out that a DNA test failed to link the suspect in the JonBenet Ramsey murder case to the crime.

KUSA - 9NEWS has confirmed from two sources that the DNA taken from John Mark Karr does not match the DNA samples taken from the crime scene in the JonBenet Ramsey murder case.

9NEWS has also confirmed from different sources that no charges will be filed against Karr in connection with the Ramsey case by the Boulder County District Attorney's office.

The suspect's lawyers are now saying the same thing publicly, according to the Associated Press. They are also making whining noises.

"The warrant on Mr. Karr has been dropped by the district attorney," public defender Seth Temin said outside the jail. "They are not proceeding with the case."

Boulder County District Attorney Mary Lacy's office did not return repeated calls from The Associated Press.

"We're deeply distressed by the fact that they took this man and dragged him here from Bangkok, Thailand, with no forensic evidence confirming the allegations against him and no independent factors leading to a presumption that he did anything wrong," Temin said.

His client confessed. By any reasonable standard that is quite enough to get a suspect hauled back to face charges.

Bad Idea Of The Day

Generally speaking, it would be considered a really bad idea to try to teach your dog to drive. After all, then they'll be hounding you for the keys. Literally.

BEIJING - A woman in Hohhot, the capital of north China's Inner Mongolia region, crashed her car while giving her dog a driving lesson, the official Xinhua News Agency said Monday.

No injuries were reported although both vehicles were slightly damaged, it said.

The woman, identified only be her surname, Li, said her dog "was fond of crouching on the steering wheel and often watched her drive," according to Xinhua.

"She thought she would let the dog 'have a try' while she operated the accelerator and brake," the report said. "They did not make it far before crashing into an oncoming car."

So this would be a case of putting the poodle to the metal? Inquiring minds want to know.

Mexican Court Rejects Full Recount

Mexico's electoral court has rejected the charges of widespread irregularities brought by the leftist loser, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The court did no make the final ruling on the winner yet. They have until September 6th to do so under Mexican law.

The seven judges voted unanimously to reject most of the legal complaints by left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who said he was robbed of victory in the July 2 vote.

The judges, whose rulings are final and cannot be appealed, must declare a president-elect by September 6.

Lopez Obrador's supporters have paralyzed Mexico City with protests this month and he has vowed to make the country ungovernable if the court declares Calderon the winner of the most bitterly contested election in Mexico's modern history.

Calderon said he would not be rattled by protests. "I will assume my role as president if that's what the court decides," he said during an event for businesswomen. "I won't let something that's been decided by all the citizens be undermined by a few in a violent way."

The initial result showed Calderon, a former energy minister from the ruling National Action Party, won the election by 244,000 votes, or just 0.58 of a percentage point.

The judges fell short of formally naming Calderon the winner but they said there were only marginal changes to the original results after recounts and annulments at some of the most fiercely contested polling stations.

Leonel Castillo, president of the election tribunal, said Lopez Obrador's claims of huge fraud "turned out to be completely unfounded."

AMLO is not backing down on his threats to form a parallel government or to lead a resistance effort. There are signs that his support is starting to drop, however.

"It would be an abuse of the people's rights, a rupture of the constitutional order and a coup d'etat, which is offensive to millions of Mexicans," he told supporters on Sunday in Mexico City's central Zocalo square, where they have been camping overnight in a sit-in for almost a month.

But attendance at his mass rallies has dropped in the last two weeks and a campaign of blockading highways, government buildings and foreign banks appears to be losing steam.

The leftist, who has vowed to overhaul economic policies to put the poor first, insists he will not give up. Some 50 supporters marched through the Zocalo with a fake coffin marked "Democracy."

Frankly, the rallies were never quite as big as some press reports would have you believe according to Mark In Mexico. Still, the fact that AMLO is willing to ruin the economy of Mexico to seize power has been a very troubling sign.

Window On The Past

A chance find by workers renovating a Beacon Hill townhouse in Boston is providing a very unusual window on a virtually undocumented group of people. Even though Boston was a hub of the abolitionist movement, almost nothing is known about the free blacks who lived there before the civil war. But when the floor of what was thought to be an old privy was removed, a trove of artifacts was discovered from what is thought to be a household of a man who was a butler for the governor of Massachusetts.

The shoes, doll fragments, hat pins, children's marbles and an empty sarsaparilla bottle, among other items, were found beneath the flooring of what once was thought to be a privy and could provide insight into the lifestyle of free black families in Boston during that time, experts said.

The house was built about 1840 by Robert Roberts, a free black man who was an active abolitionist and worked as a butler for Gov. Christopher Gore. He wrote "The House Servants' Directory" in 1827.

Despite the national influence of Boston's black families in the abolitionist movement, there is almost no record of their daily lives.

"It's a wonderful piece of history," Mary Beaudry, a Boston University archaeology and anthropology professor, who is helping lead the excavation, told The Boston Globe. "To get a look at a free African-American household — wow!"

Workers doing renovations for property owner Michael Terranova exposed brickwork beneath the floor of an attached shed.

Terranova consulted the staff at the 19th-century African Meeting House, the free-black church and community center whose Beacon Hill site is now affiliated with the National Park Service. They pointed him to Beaudry and Ellen Berkland, archaeologist for the city of Boston.

"I hadn't thought it was possible to get archeologists here," said Terranova, who was not legally obligated to report the discovery of historical artifacts on his property.

Good for the homeowner. He did the right thing here even though there is no legal requirement for him to do so. There's some additional history about the African Meeting House here.

No Trip To Moscow

The grand prize in a quiz contest on the Hungarian Uprising of 1956 will no longer be a trip to Moscow. There was a bit of popular uproar over that choice inside Hungary. It was apparently enough to make the Education Minister rethink the prize. (I covered the initial report of this here.)

"The winners can go to Paris, the city of revolutions," the ministry said in a statement on Monday after Education Minister Istvan Hiller changed the award.

The media, politicians and teachers had questioned why the top prize should be a trip to Moscow, the then capital of the Soviet Union, which ordered the bloody suppression of the uprising in 1956.

The final of the quiz tournament will be held on October 23, the 50th anniversary of the uprising, when dozens of world leaders are expected in Budapest to attend the official commemoration.

I thought the prize somewhat odd, but Roland, a commenter from Hungary, did not think it a bad choice.

Skewing Coverage

The Media Research Center has a very damning analysis of network news blatantly skewing news coverage. In analyzing coverage of the illegal immigration rallies earlier this year, the bias is astonishing.

Spurred by a passionate public outcry against the tide of illegal immigration, on December 16, 2005, the House of Representatives passed a bill to curb the flow of illegal aliens and give the federal government more responsibility for detaining and deporting them. On that night, ABC, CBS, and NBC didn’t cover the vote. But when left-wing advocacy groups for illegal aliens organized large protests against the House bill in the spring, as the Senate considered its own immigration bill, the networks suddenly, fervently discovered the issue and gave the advocacy groups not a mere soapbox in the park, but a three-network rollout of free air time. Protest coverage, often one-sided, stood in stark contrast to polling data showing that a stricter approach to illegal immigration was broadly popular in the country.

To determine the tone and balance of network coverage of illegal aliens, MRC analysts evaluated every ABC, CBS, and NBC morning, evening, and magazine show news segment on the immigration debate from the outbreak of protest coverage on March 24, 2006 through May 31, 2006. In 309 stories, analysts found the following trends emerged:

Head over there to read the details - it is truly appalling.

If It’s Tuesday This Must Be (Banned In) Belgium

I just had to rip off the title for this post from this movie. It just seemed to fit the situation perfectly, because it seems that a town in Belgium has banned this neat little piece of modern sculpture.

The massive protests against the Danish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed have rocked the world. Buildings have been burnt down; people have died at demonstrations. At the same time another row, on a rather smaller scale, is raging in a small Belgian coastal town. The mayor has banned a local exhibition from displaying in a public place a sculpture of Saddam Hussein, made by the Czech artist David Cerny. The mayor says the decision is unconnected with the wave of protests, but he does acknowledge that he was motivated by a desire not to cause offence to passers-by, whether or not they were Muslim. 

More Bombings In Turkey

A bomb in the Turkish resort city of Antalya has killed at least two and wounded as many as 20 more. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attacks, but once again, the media is quick to cast suspicion on Kurds.

Aktug said several people were injured in the explosion in front of a city-run business center but did not give an exact figure.

Private CNN-Turk television put the injury figure at 20. NTV television said six people were injured. The reason for the discrepancy was not clear.

"The cause of the explosion is still under investigation," said Guzide Ormeci, a spokeswoman for the governor's office.

The explosion damaged several motorcycles in the street and triggered a fire, Aktug said. Several ambulances rushed the injured to local hospitals.

The blast followed a Sunday night bomb attack that injured 21 people, including 10 British tourists, in the resort of Marmaris.

No one claimed responsibility for that attack but suspicion fell on Kurdish guerrillas who have staged similar attacks in the past.

The press is being irresponsible to attribute the attacks with no proof whatsoever. Other groups have also done the same types of bombings in Turkey. AP conveniently leaves that out.

Gathering Support From Dictators

Hugo Chavez continues his world tour of dictatorships, lining them up behind his bid to get Venezuela a seat on the UN Security Council. Today, he's visiting Syria. Of course, his anti-Semitic rants will continue.

Chavez has been a fierce critic of Israel's month-long offensive in Lebanon and has found common ground with Syria, which has irked the West with its declarations of support for Hezbollah Shiite militants in Lebanon.

During a visit to China last week he denounced Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon as "genocide," likening its action to war crimes committed by Germany's Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.

Chavez is lining up the support of thugs all over the world.

"I am sure that support is going to continue growing," Chavez told state television, speaking from the eastern Chinese city of Jinan.

U.S. officials, alarmed by Chavez's deepening ties with countries like Iran and North Korea, are backing Guatemala for the U.N. seat instead. The race is expected to be decided by the General Assembly in a secret ballot in October.

Chavez rattled off a list of regional groups that he said were mostly backing Venezuela after two months of campaigning by diplomats.

"China, Russia, the majority of the countries of the African Union, the Arab League, Mercosur, Caricom — and many countries don't say it," Chavez said. Caricom is made up of 15 Caribbean nations, while Mercosur is a trade bloc of five South American countries.

Chavez said the United States, in opposing Venezuela, "has turned this into a sort of battle for the world."

"The U.S. government has been sending letters to the majority of the countries in the world," opposing Venezuela, Chavez said. "Many governments … react against the empire because they realize it's immoral for the U.S. empire to try to keep a small, modest country like Venezuela from entering a body, whatever it is."

Chavez Is quite full of himself, isn't he?

A New Meaning For MPG?

Scientists at Iowa State University are working on a process to turn industrial grade ethanol into a food grade product cheaply and efficiently. The goal is to provide another potential product use should demand for fuel additives decline in the future.

The professors are researching how to easily, and cheaply, turn fuel ethanol into food-grade alcohol to be used in beverages, pharmaceuticals and personal care products.

"We will be taking relatively abundant and cheap fuel ethanol, and for a very small amount (of money) adding a lot of value to it," said Jacek Koziel, an assistant professor of agricultural and biosystems engineering.

He said the research is focused on perfecting technologies that purify fuel ethanol, a grain alcohol most often made from corn and used as a gasoline additive. Like beverage alcohol, fuel ethanol is yeast-fermented and then distilled. However, it has many more impurities that must be removed, Koziel said.

"We are trying to fine tune, so to speak, the process of alcohol purification," he said.

Why find another use for ethanol at a time when demand for the fuel has skyrocketed?

Because while the demand for fuel ethanol could wane if the automotive industry embraces other technology, "the demand for liquor and mouthwashes and cough syrups will always be there," said Hans van Leeuwen, a civil, construction and environmental engineering professor who is working with Koziel on the project

"We're really just looking at a process improvement here that will save a lot of money," said van Leeuwen, who also serves as vice president of Cedar Rapids-based MellO3z, a company that has created a process for purifying alcoholic beverages.

Monte Shaw, a spokesman for the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, said the future of food-grade alcohol produced from fuel ethanol depends on its profitability. Right now, ethanol used in gasoline blends is in demand, but as more plants are built and production climbs, producers could take advantage of extra capacity and turn food-grade ethanol into a premium business, he said.

The research has already yielded enough product for a "taste test". We used to call those "parties" when I was in college, but hey. Now if you can drink it or fuel your car with it, will it encourage drinking and driving? Or will MPG now just mean Martinis Per Gallon?

Getting Used To War

Michael Totten has another of his fabulous articles up. This one is about a trip to Southern Israel near the Gaza Strip. There, the almost forgotten war continues.

“All the journalists forgot about us during the Lebanon war. So the terrorists are waiting for the media to come back before firing rockets again. They don’t want to waste those they have.”

“That can’t be the only reason,” I said. “The IDF has been active in Gaza this entire time. Surely that has something to do with it.”

“Yes,” he said. “Also because of the IDF.”

Later two more Israelis repeated what Shika said about Hamas and Islamic Jihad cooling their rocket launchers while the media’s attention was elsewhere. I haven’t heard any official confirmation from either side that it’s true.

“How long do people here have from the time they hear an air raid siren until the rockets land?” I said.

“About 20 seconds,” he said.

The lack of journalists covering the Gaza operations is one of the reasons that the freed Fox News people were encouraged to make statements about needing to cover that area, I suspect. Read all of Totten's article for a matter of fact look at what it's like living under the threat of daily rocket attacks.

Longing For Vietnam

The Washington Post does an "analysis" of prosecutions of American troops in Iraq. The entire tone of the article is set in the opening sentences:

The majority of U.S. service members charged in the unlawful deaths of Iraqi civilians have been acquitted, found guilty of relatively minor offenses or given administrative punishments without trials, according to a Washington Post review of concluded military cases. Charges against some of the troops were dropped completely.

Though experts estimate that thousands of Iraqi civilians have died at the hands of U.S. forces, only 39 service members were formally accused in connection with the deaths of 20 Iraqis from 2003 to early this year. Twenty-six of the 39 troops were initially charged with murder, negligent homicide or manslaughter; 12 of them ultimately served prison time for any offense.

There is a longing here. The Post implies that there should be more prosecutions because "experts" say there were deaths. There is a bit of a show at explaining counter-arguments that the low numbers may reflect the excellent performance of the majority of the troops, there is a strong undercurrent of innuendo.

Some military officials and analysts say the small numbers reflect the caution and professionalism exercised by U.S. forces on an urban battlefield where it is often difficult to distinguish combatants from civilians. Others argue the statistics illustrate commanders' reluctance to investigate and hold troops accountable when they take the lives of civilians.

"I think there are a number of cases that never make it to the reporting stage, and in some that do make it to the reporting stage, there has been a reluctance to pursue them vigorously," said Gary D. Solis, a law professor at Georgetown University and a former Marine prosecutor. "There have been fewer prosecutions in Iraq than one might expect."

"But we should not forget that so many of our soldiers and Marines are performing not only honorably, but heroically, in very difficult circumstances," he added. "Their contributions should not be tarnished by the acts of a very, very few."

They bring up the inevitable comparisons to deaths and prosecutions in Vietnam and imply numbers in Iraq should be higher. This is a sneaky attempt to plant suggestions of impropriety while pretending to be fair.

The military that went to Vietnam was radically different from the military that is in Iraq. We no longer have an army made up of short term draftees. We have professionals who are highly trained. The differences could logically be explained by that higher professionalism, by the relatively small number of troops committed as opposed to Vietnam and by tightly controlled rules of engagement.

But that wouldn't fit the narrative the media wants to impose. They long for the heady days of the Vietnam war when the press could dictate the course of a war with impunity.

Hezbollah Bunkers Next To UN Positions

The IDF located and destroyed an elaborate defensive bunker built by Hezbollah. It was almost next to a UN post. Who exactly was UNIFIL protecting?

Elian added that the bunker had "shooting positions of poured concrete," and that the combat posts inside were equipped with phone lines, showers, toilets, air ducts, and emergency exits, as well as logistical paraphernalia for Hizbullah.

A Golani officer told the Jerusalem Post that among the force's findings was a Katyusha rocket launcher, most likely used in rocket attacks against northern Israel during the war.

He also mentioned that Golani forces had initiated the move to uncover the bunker after the same battalion, in an earlier operation, had discovered maps specifying certain areas where Hizbullah had planned such tunnels in south Lebanon.

This structure was within a half a kilometer of the UN post. Something this elaborate took time to build. Either the UN force was hopelessly inept or willfully blind to the activities going on right under their noses.

Shuttle Launch Called Off

NASA has scrubbed the planned launch of Atlantis because of the weather related problems associated with tropical storm Ernesto. They may begin moving the vehicle back into the assembly building, depending on how the storm tracks. This is probably an overabundance of caution, but I'd rather have them do this than take any unnecessary risks.