On A “Dismal” Economy
I have noted a number of times (the posts are around here somewhere) that the economy isn't what the MSM tries to sell. My rule of thumb: Go out to eat on Friday or Saturday evening. See if there is a wait, see if there is a full parking lot. If there is, there is no problem with the economy. The first thing people cut when times are tough? Eating out. But, hey, don't take my word for it. Someone has run the numbers and charted the results. Back Talk has it broken down in chart form and it is quite telling. (You'll have to go over there to view the charts, Back Talk deserves the traffic for working that hard.)
So why do Americans, or more specifically, the American media hate this economy that is the envy of the world?
The key word there is 'envy'.
By MrGone, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 9:32 am
Perhaps you should read this for a little more detailed analysis from the economist’s view:
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/08/disappointing_n.html
And for something about the recently revised GDP numbers:
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/08/what_inning_are.html
These are not the only ones forseeing bad times ahead.
By Gaius, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 9:39 am
You do realize that economists have dreadful track records at prediction, don’t you?
By MrGone, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 10:35 am
Yes, of course. That said, I think the restaurant parking lot model of the economy is just a bit weak. BTW, the recently released restaurant performance index was down 1% last month.
Like I said, the linked analysis shows some pretty unpleasant and real indicators and does a good job of separating spin from data. Yes, they spin as well with their opinions but the data and numbers aren’t encouraging.
By Gaius, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 10:53 am
Actually, my rule of thumb is fairly accurate although not at all rigorous. (And a 1% drop is noise on the system, you know that).
By MrGone, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 1:45 pm
Just read some from:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2006-08-24-casual-actions_x.htm?csp=N008
To quote
“In the face of a meltdown in same-store sales and falling customer counts, some of the biggest names in casual dining — from Outback Steakhouse to Applebee’s to T.G.I. Friday’s — are taking serious actions to try to salvage 2006. Some are even chopping prices.
Excluding the weeks after 9/11, this is the toughest period the industry has faced in nearly a decade, says Richard Snead, CEO of Carlson Restaurants Worldwide, which owns Friday’s.”
How’s you’re parking lot doing?
By Gaius, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 1:52 pm
Parking lots are great in my area. Full every Friday and Saturday with waiting lines. How about you? If you notice, this post links to some graphical analysis that says the press is kind of negative in its coverage of the economy. So pointing to another article that provides negative coverage may not exactly be the best way to prove a point. Don’t you think?
By MrGone, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 4:05 pm
Actually, no. I don’t think that when these major chains say that business hasn’t been this bad since 9/11 and “worst in a decade” that it’s all about media bias. Perhaps it’s you that has the bias.
I agree with you that the restaurants in my area are hopping but I live in one of the wealthiest counties in the US. My local perceptions don’t necessarily reflect the larger picture.
By Gaius, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 4:14 pm
Fair enough. It may, indeed, be a bit worse in some areas than others - the economy is never uniform. But I think saying revenues down 1.8% is the worst it has been since 9/11 may be a bit over the top, don’t you?
By MrGone, Thursday, 31 August , 2006 @ 4:25 pm
I didn’t say that, the companies did, and I quoted them. As far as -1.8% being bad or good, what if GDP dropped 1.8%? Would that be bad? Wall Street seems to think so. Those stocks have been getting hammered.