On Chickens Counted Too Soon
As a long time observer of politics in this country, one of the things I always find interesting is how quickly things can turn around. It can be something as simple as a mistake in how something is phrased to bombshell news rearing up from some event in the past. Which is one reason I caution against counting chickens and celebrating too soon. So it really doesn't surprise me to hear that New Jersey, a supposedly safe Democratic state, suddenly has a highly competitive Senate race. It also does not surprise me that the situation is eerily familiar.
A powerful clue that U.S. Senator Robert Menendez might ultimately be forced to withdraw from his bid for a full term in New Jersey emerged last Friday, when he addressed the question head-on just hours after the world learned that he is the subject of a federal criminal investigation.“The answer is no,” he said.That may sound a touch familiar to New Jerseyans. It was, after all, around this time four Septembers ago that Senator Robert Torricelli’s re-election campaign—besieged by similar speculation—spent a weekend attaching a simple, defiant message to Torricelli lawn signs around the state: “Nobody fights harder.”The very next week, of course, Mr. Torricelli quit the race. In tears.And the rest was history—and the subject, no doubt, of recurring nightmares for many Republicans: Former Senator Frank Lautenberg was recruited to replace Mr. Torricelli at the last minute, and the Democrats ended up with a double-digit win.For now, Mr. Menendez’s fellow Democrats—from Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman, to Jon Corzine, the governor who handed Mr. Menendez his Senate seat in January—are pledging their support. The same way they once stood by Mr. Torricelli.Indeed, what is unnerving for Democrats in New Jersey and Washington—and for Republicans too, for that matter—is just how deep the similarities between the Torricelli and Menendez dramas run.In 2002, you’ll recall, Mr. Torricelli, dogged by a variety of ethics questions, consistently underperformed in the polls, running even for much of the summer with a drab Republican candidate who’d begin his speeches as follows: “My name is Doug Forrester, and I’m the guy running against Bob Torricelli.” By mid-September, Forrester’s lead hit double digits—and this in a state that hadn’t (and still hasn’t) elected a Republican to the Senate since M*A*S*H was a first-season show.
I don't know if the Democrats will try to pull off another Lautenberg or not here. There may or may not be someone with sufficient name recognition to try it again. I would think the people in solidly blue state New Jersey would be very unhappy with their party at the moment right now, however. Sometimes deja vu is just an illusion, you know.
By Neo, Wednesday, 13 September , 2006 @ 10:51 am
Since Lautenberg can’t hold both seats for New Jesrsey, the only Democrat in the state with hands clean enough to get elected Senator is Gov. Corzine, whose seat is being filled in this election.
New Jersey and Lautenberg/Corzine .. perfect together.
By TC@LeatherPenguin, Wednesday, 13 September , 2006 @ 1:56 pm
No, Neo. If they are gonna pull a repeat of what happened with “Torch,” and swap Menedez for a candidate who is clean and has goodwill among the Joisey electorate, they will turn to Richard Codey, who took over for the disgraced McGreevey. The only reason he was not elected Governor in his own right was because of Corzine’s buckets of money forcing him to drop out of the race.