Jed Babbin has a piece up at Real Clear Politics that is rather interesting. He asks if there may be a building momentum for Republicans despite all the cheerleading from the press for the Democrats. I've noted a couple signs that there is some growing fear among the Dems what with New Jersey suddenly coming into play and the announcement of a new 527.
But – as Donald Lambro and I wrote last week, and as Rush Limbaugh analyzed with mathematical elegance Tuesday – Democrats are not in as strong a position as they say. The momentum shift of the past six weeks may be profound, and among the things it portends is not Democratic control of congress. The Dems are so worried that a deal reportedly has been struck this week between DNC Chairman Howard Dean and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Rahm Emanuel, whose disdain for each other cannot be exaggerated. Dean is giving money to Emanuel for 40 House races on condition that Emanuel stops trashing the DNC. But the breach between them remains: a huge gap between the faux moderates of the Democratic House and their hyper-liberal national party.
If Republicans are smart enough to follow the path set by three of their best thinkers, and launch the thematic ad campaign to nationalize the election, they can retain control of Congress and set themselves up for 2008. The thematic ad campaign has to tell a narrative, and connect all the pieces – war, the economy, the conservative vs. liberal contest – in coherent, connected steps. Three people who have it right are Sens. Mitch McConnell and Elizabeth Dole and former Bush-Cheney 2000 political director Tom Feather.
Republicans have to make this election about the Democratic Party and show America just who the Dems of 2006 really are. Mitch McConnell had it right when he said, "What they'll do is cut and run in Iraq, they'll raise our taxes and they'll try to impeach the president." Elizabeth Dole had it right, too. She said the Democrats will raise taxes and confirm judges who will threaten our values. McConnell and Dole clarify the differences between Republicans and Democrats and make the essential connection between domestic and war policies. Tom Feather understands how to write and get that narrative across.
It's actually an interesting take. I suspect it will worry Democratic strategists who read it – it actually gives some advice that, if followed, could be devastating for the Dems come November. I don't know if there is growing momentum just yet, but I do sense a bit of fear. It is not coming from the party that is supposed to be in trouble, either.
