Did Chavez Make A Mistake?

At least some analysts think Hugo Chavez may have hurt his country's chances at a seat on the UN Security Council with his aggressive defense of Iran's nuclear ambitions at the Non-Aligned Movement meeting. One can but hope.

With trips abroad, speeches championing poor nations and generous bilateral oil deals, Chavez has devoted his foreign policy for months to winning a vote next month for a rotating seat on the top U.N. forum over U.S. objections.

His embrace of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on a two-day visit that ends on Monday put him further at odds with the West and could alienate developing nations that welcome his anti-U.S. stances but worry about Iran's atomic ambitions.

Chavez's support for a fellow OPEC country in the same week that he will go to the United Nations to lobby for a seat on a council is typical of the risk-taking style of a president whose confidence is buoyed by high oil prices.

"In making an alliance with Iran, Chavez's calculation is that whatever governments think about Iran, he believes they dislike the United States more," said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

"It's a big gamble," he added.

The big problem for Chavez is that the vote is secret. He won't know who reneged on any deals he has made.

But some moderate African nations might now withdraw support for Chavez in the secret U.N. vote, said Larry Birns of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs think tank.

Neighbors such as Chile and countries across Europe and Asia that were not solidly behind the Venezuelan candidacy, face a fresh argument against Chavez, Shifter said.

Venezuelan officials say widespread support in Latin America and Africa, as well as backing from the Arab League and major powers such as Russia and China should assure victory.

But Birns was skeptical.

"Even though the U.N. vote is the most important item on his agenda, he may well have overplayed his hand at the expense of some votes that he had every reason to count on," Birns said.

That would be a very funny day to watch, It would be a very bad day to be a cat anywhere near Chavez, though.