There are multiple reports in the major media about a leaked National Intelligence Estimate. All are based off anonymous sources, talking about the document. The document itself is not available, nor it is possible to judge the motivations of the people leaking the information or the accuracy of what they are saying. Nonetheless, if we assume that these reports accurately portray the document, and if we are willing to accept that this NIE is more authoritatively correct than many past NIEs what then do we do?
A 30-page National Intelligence Estimate completed in April cites the "centrality" of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and the insurgency that has followed, as the leading inspiration for new Islamic extremist networks and cells that are united by little more than an anti-Western agenda. It concludes that, rather than contributing to eventual victory in the global counterterrorism struggle, the situation in Iraq has worsened the U.S. position, according to officials familiar with the classified document.
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An NIE drawn up in the fall of 2002 concluded that Iraq had "continued its weapons of mass destruction [WMD] programs," possessed stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons and "probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade." All of those judgments, which provided the political and national security underpinnings for the Iraq invasion, turned out to be false.
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National Intelligence Estimates have often sparked controversy, both for what they have said and what they have omitted. A 1997 estimate, the last on global terrorism before the 2001 al-Qaeda attacks, mentioned bin Laden in only three sentences, describing him only as a "terrorist financier" and making no reference at all to al-Qaeda.
The 2002 NIE is the hammer the left uses to charge that "Bush Lied!" But the left is rushing to embrace this NIE because it is reported to echo their beliefs. That is human nature, of course. But if this one is more objectively "true" than others have been, what do we do? Ignore terror and it will go away? That's a hell of a strategy. Rick Moran takes a hard, hard look at this issue. I would direct people over there to read what he has put together.
UPDATE: See the Glittering Eye for a discussion on alternatives we did not have. James Joyner on alternatives we don't have now. A Blog For All on the "Kick over the hornest's nest" strategy. Liberty and Justice on what does it mean in the long run? Captain's Quarters on confusing correlation with causality.
UPDATE: Let me clarify something here. This post is not meant as an indictment on the war in Iraq. Rather it is directed at those who criticize and carp with no real solution. The time for debating whether to go to war is long over. A precipitous withdrawal weakens the US immeasurably. And the problem does not go away just because we wish it so. So, to the critics: What the hell do you propose to do?
As you posted above Crittenden slams al AP. As well he should. Because the MSM and the Democrat Leadership is winning this war for teh other side.
It’s my contention that it was unavoidable that a certain amount of insurrgency would arise. The idea is to limit it and that sadly, just as in Vietnam, the most powerful weapon the enemy has in the propaganda war is American Made.
What do we do?
Is that all you’ve got now thati it’s more than apparent that the murderous course you people have been suporting is making America a much more dangerous place?
What do we do?
I’ve started writing this post several time and I’m just so angry at the blatant irresponsiblity Bush supporters have shown these past few years I have to keep censoring myself and starting over.
My God, that’s all you’ve got?
We’ve squandered billions,trillions when this fiasco is all said and done, not to mention the lives of innocent Iraqis and the good will and support of the virtually the entire world after 9/11……
…….
And the best you can come up with is uhhhhhhhh …. What do we do now that we’ve wrecked everything?
Here’s what you and your fellow right bloggers can do: Shut the hell up. You had your time in the sun and you used it to support a wanna-be cowboy and his murderous group of corporate-owned thugs. Retire from blogging and spend the rest of your life doing good deeds in penance for the horror that you’ve supported.
You used the greatest gift of democracy, free speech, to unleash hell on innocent men, women, and children.
You’re disgusting.
(If you’ve got any guts at all you will leave this post up. If not I will at least know that you’ve read it and I hope you have enough humanity hidden deep inside to feel ashamed. Get used to it. It’s only going to get worse from here.)
You are a complete and utter fool if you think we could have just kept ignoring it. This post was not meant to imply we should not have gone to Iraq. Debate for that was long over. The purpose was to point out that all the relentless mindless criticism, your included, fails to address the one vital problem.
What is the solution. Hiding and pretending it will go away is the wrong freaking answer.
Robert you sound just like Hugo Chavez addressing the United Nations.
Syn,
Yes, and you sound like Cheney saying the insurgents are in “the last throes.”
Please try to see though the partisanship and ask very simple, direct questions of our “leadership.” Our democracy and our country are, in fact, at stake here.
MrGone you are all over the place.
I made a point about Robert’s diatribe sounding like Hugo Chavez addressing the United Nations and you end up saying something about Vice President Cheney.
My point is that rude behavior to degrade one’s host with nasty and unwarranted comments which is what both Robert and Hugo Chavez have in common, is bad manners. If Robert does not like the host of this site he should leave. As should Chavez after his wildly bombastic speech while he visited my city.
Our democray is fine.
Syn,
Sorry dude, but if you were talking about Chavez’s UN speech, then you were obviously on the wrong post. The current topic is about the leaked NIE, our increased risk of terrorism and the FACT that the present poilicies have made us LESS safe, NOT more.
P.S.
Our democracy is not fine, thank you very much.
That’s ‘democracy’
I am truly stunned.
People are dead. Tens of thousands of people.
Dead because of the support of bloggers like you, and yet you have the gall to say to suggest that I am somehow beyond the pale for being angry about it.
What it will take to actually reach you people is beyond me.
I will not curse you. I will not call you names. I will only hope that my nation will learn lessons from people like you so that someday we will be able to hold our heads high as Americans and apologize for what we have done.
You have courage for printing what I wrote. It was honorable and I salute you for it. Now please have the courage to follow your convictions to their logical conclusion and tell these lying bastards that you are better than this.
Courage….
‘Robert you sound just like Hugo Chavez addressing the United Nations.”
Though I would not have employed his lighthearted theatrics, I am honored to be included among those brave enough to call it as it is…..
How many more senseless dead will it take to sway you?
The insurgency in Iraq is for the most part being aided and abetted by Iran, until we change that equation nothing’s going to improve in Iraq.