It’s Not Just Iraq
William Arkin has a very good post up about the NIE and the war on terror in general. He points out that Iraq is only part of what is going on in the War on Terror and it is not a good idea to paint it too simplistically. Nor is it wise to ignore the other things that are fueling the jihadis.
Even without the Iraq war, the "grievances" would still exist, and they are not just about domestic Muslim stagnation or some inner-Islamic religious war. Furthermore, the "anger" and "humiliation" rampant in the Muslim and jihadist world do not find their origins in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
If anything, the U.S. toppling of Saddam Hussein was not a surprise to most Muslims.
What is more, the Iraq war at this point, and the "jihad" fighting America in Iraq, is having the effect of breeding a strange sense of hope: in Iraq, and in Afghanistan where al Qaeda survives, in Pakistan where Osama bin Laden continues to live, in Lebanon where Israel is defeated, the dominant anti-American narrative is that Osama bin Laden and other defenders of Islam were right from the beginning: just as the Soviet Union was "defeated" in Afghanistan, the United States and Israel can also be defeated.
The simplistic story line that the Democrats are pushing is all about and solely about Iraq: withdraw U.S. forces, defeat the Republicans, tidy up foreign policy by giving human rights to prisoners and being nicer in the world, and voila, terror subsides.
President Bush, on the other hand, loves to insist that before we were "in" Iraq, terrorists attacked the World Trade Center and Pentagon anyhow, hence the age of mega-terror is not about the Iraq war.
"My judgment is, if we weren't in Iraq, they'd find some other excuse, because they have ambitions," Bush said yesterday. "They kill in order to achieve their objectives."
Both the Democrats and the President are wrong.
Go read it all. I try here to cover a lot of other areas of the world where trouble is brewing, not just Iraq. Arkin is right that there is a lot more going on here and a lot of interrelated events. A precipitous pullout from Iraq would make the situation even worse.
By Lincoln, September 27, 2006 @ 7:17 pm
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Yeah, the war of terror is so complicated that we should take what the intelligence sevices say with a grain of salt and just believe in (Godwin's Law violation removed – read the comment rules, please). Sorry, we've made things worse by exacerbating the reasons they hated us in the first place. But it's good for arms sales and security services and keeping the populace in fear and obediance. Healthcare, education, employment, housing, and taxes too (though not for the ruling class) have become progressively less affordable for the workers. Iraq is a small part in a plan of global dominance (see PNAC) and when the bill finally comes due, our sole superpower status will have gone the way of Napolean and Hitler in overreaching imperialism. The dollar had better stay the form of oil currency and countries need to keep buying it with our deflated currency (I can hear the presses running from here) or we're in the dustbin of history. The Dems won't help. Until we have REAL campaign finance reform and kick corporations out of congress and the white house, we're in history's crosshairs. Peace, LincolnBy Donna, September 27, 2006 @ 7:58 pm
No one can GIVE human rights to detainees. Those rights were given when God created man in his image. Those who want to deny human rights to detainees are replacing God’s will with their own short-sighted, fear and weakness based human willpower.
Only strong people can be counted on to carry out the right and moral action under the influence of a fearsome situation. I am ashamed of the cowardice of those who grasp after ’safety’ by succumbing to the lure of power-over-others human rights abuse.
By Neo, September 27, 2006 @ 9:00 pm
If we weren’t in Iraq, they’d find some other excuse. It’s call Afghanistan, the other war that Democrats claim from time to time is where we should be fighting.
Unfortunately, by making Afghanistan the centerpiece, we would be fighting al Qaeda on the turf where the beat the Soviets. A “loss” by America, no matter how it was measured, in Afghanistan would resonate throughout the al Qaeda world, and all hell would break loose.
By syn, September 28, 2006 @ 4:56 am
Is it not a human right to freedom of expression? Considering the recent events at the Berlin Opera house, or the self-censorship of newspapers and magazines, censorship of comedians and cartoonists, censorship of writers and death to film directors is evidence that those who want to deny human rights to [freedom of expression] are replacing [liberalism} with Allah’s will.
Unfortunately, western liberalism has exacerbated the problem by denying freedom of expression this being unable to carry out the right and moral action under the influence of a fearsome situation.
They hate us because we do not submit. They hate us because we do not hang homosexuals to their deaths in the public square. They hate us because we do not issue fatwas against those who speak in contradiction to Allah’s will, they hate us because we do not stone females to death who have shamed their family for having sex outside marriage.
I am ashamed that western liberalism have grown so smug in it’s freedom to ecpress as to side with those that will eventually hack off their heads for having expressed themselves freely. Defending Islamic Jihadist ‘detainees’ or believing this war is about oil is a betrayal to our cherished belief that humans were endowed by the creator to freedom of expression.
By Vox Populi Cosmicum, September 28, 2006 @ 3:05 pm
Quite a nonsensical post, really … but, I suppose, one that is at least consistent with the worldview to which many Americans subscribe.
Before you write me off and dismiss the remainder of my response, please know that I honestly mean this post my warning that America does not truly understand the state of the world as it exists outside of US borders. As a result, we are all in danger.
If you honestly believe in justice and humanity, you should at least know that you (i.e. the citizens of the USA) are being given one last chance to take responsibility for your government. The world is angry at your county because of the acts of its elites. At the same time, the ruinous economic decisions of those same elites have left the US financially and socially vulnerable to the whims of those outside its borders. Your best chance to avoid extreme social turbulence is to learn to get along with the rest of the world, but you have only a few months to implement the electoral decisions and begin the legal process that will quell the world’s anger.
The charade is over, fellas. The US has been found a paper tiger, yet again, and you can bray all you want but the UN is America’s best chance at self-preservation as its own relative power declines. They are, after all, your rules: if you can’t live within them, you ought not to have made them.
Your country cannot suspend its disbelief in reality for much longer; the world has awakened and your denial will no longer halt its progress. The greed and mismanagement of your leadership will bear its fruit in the coming years. The question is, just exactly how bitter (or radioactive) will that fruit be?
The people of the world are increasingly impatient to achieve their own freedom, and it looks less and less likely that their version of freedom will be consistent with continued American hegemony as it is currently manifested.
As for more pre-emptive war: aside from any question of its morality (the lack of which is beyond doubt), your military is now painted into a corner by unfavourable conditions (i.e. no U.S. draft) and unfavourable tactics (i.e. guerilla warfare against an inexhaustible supply of fighters). Now, the only chance of “victory” against your declared enemies (e.g. in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine and Iraq, as well as Syria, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba … you get the point) is Dick Cheney’s unthinkable “nuclear option”.
Your conventional warmaking ability is vast but outmoded, like the proverbial knife-at-a-gunfight. (As an aside, I believe the immorality factor would mean that ANY future pre-emptive attack would invite an exponential increase in the locus, variety and profile of self-declared “enemies of America”.)
In sum, your shortsightedness and arrogance have eliminated your capacity to wage war other than by cowardly and genocidal annihilation of “your enemies”, just as your hubris has, thus far, needlessly prevented you from strategic retreat.
Despite the rhetoric of chickenhawks, not even the vastly ignorant American public would support a government that launched a nuclear strike on Iran or anywhere else, and any offensive falling short of such annihilation would mean endless war. We can all only hope that the armageddon wing of the chickenhawk party isn’t already well-roosted around the big red button.
So … by all means enjoy your delusions of comfort and superiority for a while longer, but know that you are doing so in the face of warnings, like this one, that the world will hold you (i.e. the citizens of the US) responsible if you again fail to adquately supervise the acts of your elected representatives.
Wake up and smell the sulfur, and then bury these dangerous fascists in ballots, subpeonas and indictments (in any order that pleases You and removes Them). Contrary to the world’s usual outrage on the subject, I am quite sure there would be neither hue nor cry if you were to excercise the death penalty for the crimes of this administration.
By Gaius, September 28, 2006 @ 3:23 pm
Spoken like a true Canadian.
By Vox Populi Cosmicum, September 28, 2006 @ 3:39 pm
I’m so busted. (I forgot that only Americans are allowed to opine on US foreign policy).
By Gaius, September 28, 2006 @ 3:40 pm
Nope, you’re entitled to your opinion. I think you’re wrong. Because you simply do not understand Americans.
By Vox Populi Cosmicum, September 28, 2006 @ 4:13 pm
I’m not looking to understand Americans; I have given up doing so and instead am frantically trying to warn Americans (many of whom are near and dear to my heart). Americans need to understand the world and adapt accordingly.