WaPo Drops The Ball, Too
The Washington Post is also spinning the negatives of the NIE and stressing the things that appear to damage the administration while ignoring the key assessments that need to be widely understood.
The overall estimate is bleak, with minor notes of optimism. It depicts a movement that is likely to grow more quickly than the West's ability to counter it over the next five years, as the Iraq war continues to breed "deep resentment" throughout the Muslim world, shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and cultivating new supporters for their ideology.
In describing Iraq as "the 'cause celebre' for jihadists," the document judges that real and perceived insurgent successes there will "inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere," while losses would have the opposite effect. It predicts that the elimination of al-Qaeda leaders, particularly Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed after the estimate was completed in April, would probably leave that organization splintered into disparate groups that "for at least a time, pose a less serious threat to U.S. interests" than the current al-Qaeda structure.
On the relative bright side, the assessment notes the unpopularity with "the vast majority of Muslims" of the jihadists' brutal tactics and ultraconservative ideology. Democratic reforms and peaceful political alternatives in Muslim countries will also counter terrorist aims, it says.
But "the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this estimate," the report notes. An intelligence official who was not authorized to speak on the record said the time frame is until early 2011.
The most important consensus in the document, again, is the flat statement that withdrawal from Iraq would hand the jihadists a major victory and would increase the danger to the US and the world. That aspect of the report appears to be willfully suppressed by the media right now. That is a very bad thing, I think. What is thoroughly disgusting in this article comes at the end:
Several active and retired intelligence officials, who were not authorized to speak on behalf of the intelligence community, expressed resentment at the administration's decision to have Negroponte issue the first official reaction to the weekend reports. They said he should not have become involved in what quickly became a political battle.
Apparently, it's perfectly fine for unnamed rogue elements inside the intelligence community to leak classified information with impunity. This is blatant double-speak.
By Daniel DiRito, Wednesday, 27 September , 2006 @ 8:21 am
As we approach the midterm election, it is safe to conclude that little focus will be given to these realities and their eventual resolution…other than the GOP arguing that we cannot cut and run and the Democrats contending that the existing course of action is an unmitigated failure. I understand the partisan nature of politics but I can’t help but look for reasonable alternatives that might succeed.
I contend that the Iraqi conflict, as well as the prevailing Middle East tensions, will be lessened in equal proportion to the success we achieve in providing for a Palestinian state. Given that the NIE assessment posits that, “If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives”, then it would be reasonable to conclude that any progress with the Palestinian issue will greatly enhance the speculative potentiality of the NIE report. Absent the Palestinian effort, I’m of the opinion that the NIE timeframe is overly optimistic and dependent upon a relatively static progression without the prevalence of unforeseen events and escalations…which seems unlikely at best.
Frankly, I doubt that the existing Republican approach or the alternative of withdrawal supported by a number Democrats will serve to alleviate the existing conditions and bring relative stability to the troubled region. Neither approach has the wherewithal to alter the prevailing sentiment. Conversely, a voluntary effort that would demonstrate our ability to discern the profound importance of a successful Palestinian state would, in my opinion, yield exponential goodwill. Given the current conditions, such an effort has little risk.
Read more here:
http://www.thoughttheater.com
By WPB, Wednesday, 27 September , 2006 @ 9:31 am
Man, Gaius, you really blow my mind. If you’re going to make a point about distorting facts, it is usually a good idea to avoid distorting the facts yourself.
The declassified portion of the NIE does not make “the flat statement that withdrawal from Iraq would hand the jihadists a major victory and would increase the danger to the US and the world.”
Rather, it states the obvious point that “perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.”
The idea that that single, obvious conclusion is “the most important consensus in the document” is ludicrous. One would have to be brain dead to not realize that a “perceived jihadist success” in Iraq would inspire more terrorism, and no one–yes, not a single Democrat–is arguing otherwise.
If you want to make this about whether or not the U.S. should withdraw from Iraq, then you might want to offer some ideas about how we can do a better job of actually preventing “perceived jihadist success” there if we stay, because staying the course sure as heck isn’t working.
By Gaius, Wednesday, 27 September , 2006 @ 9:57 am
We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.
• The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.