UN Report Hints Al Qaeda Is Losing

Not that I am a big supporter of the UN in general, but taken together with the tape from the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq noted earlier, this report hints that al Qaeda is hurting.

As an indication of the close relationship between al-Qaida and the Taliban, the Security Council committee monitoring sanctions against the two groups said "new explosive devices are now used in Afghanistan within a month of their first appearing in Iraq."

"And while the Taliban have not been found fighting outside Afghanistan/Pakistan, there have been reports of them training in both Iraq and Somalia," the committee's terrorism experts said.

By contrast, it said, al-Qaida is not only operating in Iraq but there have been many attacks elsewhere that have promoted al-Qaida objectives, "even if mounted by unconnected groups or individuals with narrowed sectarian or political aims."

The new leader of al-Qaida in Iraq purportedly said in an audio message posted online Thursday that more than 4,000 foreign militants have been killed in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 — the first apparent acknowledgment from the insurgents about their losses.

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On the down side for al-Qaida, the report noted that several intelligence and security agencies said fewer foreign fighters have been killed or captured in Iraq in the last few months, "suggesting that the flow has slackened." On returning home, they noted that some fighters had expressed dissatisfaction that they were asked to kill fellow Muslims rather than foreign soldiers and that the only role for them was to be suicide bombers.

"As Iraq continues to slide towards civil war, al-Qaida may paradoxically see more losses than gains," it said.

"It has gained by continuing to play a central role in the fighting and in encouraging the growth of sectarian violence; and Iraq has provided many recruits and an excellent training ground," the report said.

But it said "the prominent role of al-Qaida may diminish as the violence escalates between communities, and distinctions blur between sectarian attacks on markets and places of worship, or purely criminal kidnapping and protection rackets on the one hand, and the fight against Iraqi and non-Iraqi forces on the other."

An interesting thing about that last paragraph: effectively that means that the "insurgency" is degenerating into criminal activity rather than war. That may actually be a hopeful sign in the long run. The fact that al Qaeda is alienating would-be jihadis is also a good thing for the long term.