Technical Difficulties

David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post, says that Iran is encountering a number of technical difficulties in their uranium enrichment facility and that their progress is slower than many feared.

Western analysts had expected that the Iranians would move quickly to expand the enrichment effort to meet their near-term goal of having six cascades of 164 centrifuges each, or a total of nearly 1,000 centrifuges. The danger here was technological mastery rather than raw output of uranium. Even with 3,000 centrifuges operating, intelligence analysts estimate that it would take two to three years to produce enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb. Iran's eventual goal is a massive array of more than 50,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

But problems surfaced this summer. The Aug. 31 IAEA report, marked "Restricted Distribution," noted that since June, Iran had been feeding uranium into a small 20-centrifuge test cascade "for short periods of time," and that it had conducted various tests in June, July and August of the initial 164-centrifuge cascade. "The installation of a second 164-machine cascade is proceeding," the report noted, but it added that Iran planned to test the second cascade in September without injecting uranium.

What happened to slow the expected pace? IAEA analysts have told U.S. and European officials that it appears the centrifuges are overheating when uranium gas is injected. "The Iranians are unable to control higher temperatures, and after a short period they must stop because of higher temperatures. So far they haven't been able to solve this," says one Western intelligence official who has been briefed on the IAEA findings. In addition, this official said, some centrifuges "are simply crashing — 10 or so have broken down and must be replaced."

Ignatius argues that this means the West has more time to try diplomacy. Let's assume that the information in the unpublished report is completely accurate. It should be pointed out that the report is detailing past failures. The Iranians may well have figured out the problems literally yesterday. It is, at best, wishful thinking to assume this gives us more time in the future. What this tells us is why the Iranians have been dragging their feet up until now.

Frankly, after Ahmadinejad's statements yesterday, there is little doubt that the Iranian government has no intention of stopping this program unless the West stands together and faces them down. The time to do that is running out whether or not the Iranians are having technical difficulties.