North Korean Gambit

China is calling for calm after North Korea's latest announcement that they will perform a test of a nuclear weapon. They don't exactly appear gung-ho on stopping North Korea, either, unfortunately.

"We hope that North Korea will exercise necessary calm and restraint over the nuclear test issue," Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said in a short statement on Wednesday on the ministry's Web site (www.fmprc.gov.cn).

Liu urged a negotiated settlement, saying countries should "not take actions that escalate tensions."

The United States, France and Japan have all pressed for the issue to be dealt with at the United Nations.

But Beijing wants it resolved through six-country talks set up to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

North Korea has snubbed Those talks — involving the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States — for almost a year.

It has refused to return until the United States ends a crackdown on North Korean offshore bank accounts, which Washington says is aimed at ending suspected illicit activities and has nothing to do with the six-party process.

Analysts and officials said Pyongyang's nuclear test announcement on Tuesday could well be an attempt to push the United States into direct talks about ending the crackdown.

South Korea's Unification Minister, Lee Jong-seok, said he saw a strong element of trying to apply pressure on the United States.

"In the event efforts to resume the six-party talks break down, the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test is high," Lee told a parliamentary committee.

Analysts say North Korea probably could make a nuclear weapon but lacks the technology to make it small enough to fit on a missile. They also note that in its July test, North Korea's long-range missile fizzled out just after take-off.

All the diplomats seems to agree at this point that North Korea is trying to get one on one negotiations going with the US. Failing that, they seem to hope that they will cause a rift within the six nation negotiating group. There is also one telling bit of analysis from a Japanese expert on North Korea.

Some analysts said North Korea may have timed its announcement partly in the hope that China and South Korea will persuade Japan to soften its approach to North Korea.

"Japan and America took the initiative at the U.N. Security Council on sanctions after the (July) missile tests, and they want to put a brake on that," said Masao Okonogi, Korea expert at Keio University in Tokyo.

"They hope China and South Korea will persuade Japan (not to take a hard line)," Okonogi said.

….

Okonogi noted that the North Korean announcement came as discussions have started over sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

"North Korea thinks the United States can't deal with both at the same time," he said.

This is more evidence of coordination between Iran and North Korea, I think. The West is doing a bad job of showing anything approaching a unified front against Iran and North Korea is providing additional distraction.