“Progressivism Ain’t What It Used To Be”

Says Thomas Bray, writing about ballot initiatives and referendums on the November ballot. He notes they irony that the "I&R" movement was originally a means used by progressives to get around stodgy legislatures by putting things to a direct vote. Nowadays, however, I&Rs are increasingly used for conservative programs while the so-called progressives most try to prevent votes from occurring at all.

If you are trying to detect long-range political trends, keep your eye on the more than 200 propositions scheduled to appear on 32 state ballots this November. In 1994 the big issue on state ballots was term limits. A decade later it was gay marriage. On both issues the conservative view emerged as a solid winner.

This year could be different, but there still appears to lots of conservative energy at the grassroots level. Curbs on government takings will be on the ballot in at least 12 states. Eight more states have slotted votes on whether to allow gay marriage. There are some 40 tax measures, most of which, including so-called Taxpayer Bills of Rights (TABOR) in at least four states, would sharply restrict government revenue and spending.

When the dust settles, the left is likely to be able to claim some victories. The TABOR proposals may be judged a bridge too far by many voters, even those disgusted by the binge-spending of their elected politicians. A ban on racial preferences on the Michigan ballot appears to be a tossup. Union interests have succeeded in placing an increase in the minimum wage, which fares well in most polls, on the ballot in six states.

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But beginning in 1978 with voter approval of California's famous Proposition 13, which limited property taxes, the biggest users of the ballot proposal became conservative populists. The progressives, to paraphrase William F. Buckley, were relegated to standing athwart history, yelling stop, as one conservative proposal after another was enacted into law by voters rebelling against the nanny state.

Indeed, the emerging strategy of the left is to prevent people from voting at all on many ballot proposals. In Montana this summer, left-wing critics persuaded a district judge to throw a TABOR proposal - as well as a measure that would subject judges to the recall process - off the ballot because of a "pattern" of fraud by petition gatherers. (The decision is under appeal.) In Missouri a Democratic secretary of state refused to certify the TABOR and eminent domain proposals on the exceedingly fussy grounds the petitions weren't properly numbered by county.

In Michigan, opponents of Proposal 2 ludicrously tried to argue - unsuccessfully as it turned out - that the federal Voting Rights Act required that there be no vote on a measure to ban racial preferences.

Many people have noted that the people who call themselves "progressive" these days are actually quite reactionary. Whether it is preventing votes or trying to limit free speech, the left is becoming a bastion against any changes.

North Korean Gambit

China is calling for calm after North Korea's latest announcement that they will perform a test of a nuclear weapon. They don't exactly appear gung-ho on stopping North Korea, either, unfortunately.

"We hope that North Korea will exercise necessary calm and restraint over the nuclear test issue," Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said in a short statement on Wednesday on the ministry's Web site (www.fmprc.gov.cn).

Liu urged a negotiated settlement, saying countries should "not take actions that escalate tensions."

The United States, France and Japan have all pressed for the issue to be dealt with at the United Nations.

But Beijing wants it resolved through six-country talks set up to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

North Korea has snubbed Those talks — involving the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States — for almost a year.

It has refused to return until the United States ends a crackdown on North Korean offshore bank accounts, which Washington says is aimed at ending suspected illicit activities and has nothing to do with the six-party process.

Analysts and officials said Pyongyang's nuclear test announcement on Tuesday could well be an attempt to push the United States into direct talks about ending the crackdown.

South Korea's Unification Minister, Lee Jong-seok, said he saw a strong element of trying to apply pressure on the United States.

"In the event efforts to resume the six-party talks break down, the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test is high," Lee told a parliamentary committee.

Analysts say North Korea probably could make a nuclear weapon but lacks the technology to make it small enough to fit on a missile. They also note that in its July test, North Korea's long-range missile fizzled out just after take-off.

All the diplomats seems to agree at this point that North Korea is trying to get one on one negotiations going with the US. Failing that, they seem to hope that they will cause a rift within the six nation negotiating group. There is also one telling bit of analysis from a Japanese expert on North Korea.

Some analysts said North Korea may have timed its announcement partly in the hope that China and South Korea will persuade Japan to soften its approach to North Korea.

"Japan and America took the initiative at the U.N. Security Council on sanctions after the (July) missile tests, and they want to put a brake on that," said Masao Okonogi, Korea expert at Keio University in Tokyo.

"They hope China and South Korea will persuade Japan (not to take a hard line)," Okonogi said.

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Okonogi noted that the North Korean announcement came as discussions have started over sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

"North Korea thinks the United States can't deal with both at the same time," he said.

This is more evidence of coordination between Iran and North Korea, I think. The West is doing a bad job of showing anything approaching a unified front against Iran and North Korea is providing additional distraction.