Time’s Up

North Korea has apparently detonated a nuclear weapon. The US Geological Survey has not confirmed, but South Korean seismic monitors have indicated that a blast of some kind occurred. The Associated Press is reporting that there is no confirmation at all.

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. U.S. and South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.

The South Korean seismic monitoring center confirmed that tremors felt at the time of the alleged test were not natural occurrence.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said information still needed to be analyzed to determine whether North Korea truly conducted the test.

The North's official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

South Korean intelligence officials said a seismic wave of magnitude-3.58 had been detected in North Hamkyung province, according to Yonhap. It said the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city on the northeast coast, citing defense officials.

North Korean scientists "successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions," the KCNA report said, adding this was "a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation."

The director of South Korea's monitoring center that is watching for a test with sound and seismic detectors declined to immediately comment on the reported test.

"We don't know whether it is a nuclear test or not," an official at the earthquake center at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources said on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the issue.

As the West fiddles, the world begins to burn. As the American political scene descends into a cartoonish hell where the stupid phone sex antics of a disgraced Congressman take center stage, a real, nuclear hell is born. Tomorrow, all the papers will have wall to wall coverage of the Foley matter while Kim plots his next move and Ahmadinejad goes about midwifing his bomb. Very good, folks.

UPDATE: Serious bloggers: Hot Air, Townhall, Pajamas Media, STACLU, Wizbang, Rightwinged, Tigerhawk, Polipundit, Macsmind, American Future, 

Hit ‘Em With A Cluebat Hard Enough

And they still can't identify an American soldier! The Democrat's official website has finally cleared off the picture of the Canadian soldier. Instead of replacing it with a picture of an American soldier, they put up a generic American flag photo. It's not even a good photo, either. It's dark and grainy.

Good heavens.

Yeah, these are people I trust my nation's security to at the moment. The folks who admit planning on cutting off funding for the troops. The folks who were in charge when a record number of American service members needed food stamps to survive. The folks who can't actually address any issues, just use carnival barkers in the media to pump up a disgraced former Congressman's phone sex into an election issue. When they didn't care about their president's actual sexual escapades in the oval office. Yeah, right.

Killing Fields

Negotiators from the Arab League are not making any appreciable progress in their talks with the President of Sudan. The government continues to refuse any UN peacekeepers. Meanwhile, Sudanese forces are crossing into neighboring Chad to attack Darfur rebel forces.

The Arab League diplomats said Sudan's president rejected the initial proposal — as he has all suggestions of a U.N.-affiliated contingent, regardless of the makeup — but promised to suggest an alternative soon, in a sign that the Arab effort might show more promise than Western attempts to stop the humanitarian crisis.

"The situation is deteriorating and needs intervention," said Hesham Youssef, a top aide to the league's secretary-general, Amr Moussa.

But Youssef said the Arab negotiators believed the world community and the United States should also be flexible.

"The Americans should realize that there should be a compromise," he said.

The new push could be a significant step in the stalled effort to reach a compromise over Sudan's rejection of an August Security Council resolution that would let the United Nations to take control of and significantly expand a peacekeeping force in the western Darfur region, run so far by the African Union.

The two sides are still far apart, however. And it was unclear how much leverage the Arab countries — close neighbors and supporters of Sudan's Arab-dominated regime — have or how strongly they intended to press.

At least 200,000 people have died and some 2 million have been displaced since the start of a 2003 revolt by rebels from Darfur's ethnic African population. The Sudanese government is alleged to have responded by unleashing militias known as the janjaweed against villagers.

Fears the tensions could spread were highlighted this weekend when Sudanese soldiers crossed the border into eastern Chad to fight a group of Darfur rebels, leaving more than 300 people injured, an aid worker said Sunday, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to divulge information to the media.

The new killing fields for this generation. The West just dithers and our internal politics flap about on tiny hinges like Mark Foley and his proclivity for phone sex. Yeah, we're serious people, we are. This is one of the shames that the left are giving to the world. Another genocide accomplished while they speak truthiness to power and hamstring any meaningful response to the murderous thugs who conduct these atrocities.

Up Or Out

Lt. Cmdr. Charles Swift, the US Navy defense lawyer who argued the Hamdan decision in front of the US Supreme Court, has been passed over for promotion and will leave the service after 20 years. The usual suspects who cannot tell a Canadian uniform from an American one are whining about the injustice. The Seattle Times strongly implies that there was a revenge motive in the decision.

NEWARK, N.J. — The Navy lawyer who took the Guantánamo case of Osama bin Laden's driver to the U.S. Supreme Court — and won — has been passed over for promotion by the Pentagon and must soon leave the military.

Lt. Cmdr. Charles Swift, 44, said last week he received word he had been denied a promotion to full-blown commander this summer, "about two weeks after" the Supreme Court sided against the White House and with his client, a Yemeni captive at the U.S. Navy base in southeast Cuba.

Under the military's "up-or-out" promotion system, Swift will retire in March or April, closing a 20-year career of military service.

A Pentagon appointee, Swift embraced the alleged al-Qaida's sympathizer's defense with a classic defense lawyer's zeal, casting his captive client as an innocent victim in the dungeon of King George, a startling analogy for the attorney whose commander-in-chief is President (George) Bush.

"It was a pleasure to serve," said Swift, who added that he would defend Salim Hamdan again, even if he knew he would have to leave the Navy earlier than he wanted.

"All I ever wanted was to make a difference — and in that sense, I think my career and personal satisfaction has been beyond my dreams," he said.

Swift, a Seattle University Law School graduate, also said he will continue to defend Hamdan as a civilian. The Seattle law firm of Perkins Coie, which provided pro-bono legal work in Hamdan's habeas corpus petition, has agreed to support Swift's defense of Hamdan in civilian life, he said.

….

In the opinion of Washington, D.C., attorney Eugene Fidell, president of the National Institute of Military Justice, Swift was "a no-brainer for promotion," given his devotion to the Navy, the law and his client.

But, he said, Swift is part of a long line of Navy defense lawyers "of tremendous distinction" who were not made full commander and "had their careers terminated prematurely."

"He brought real credit to the Navy," said Fidell. "It's too bad that it's unrequited love."

Swift's supervisor, the Pentagon's chief defense counsel for Military Commissions, said the career Navy officer had served with distinction.

"Charlie has obviously done an exceptional job, a really extraordinary job," said Marine Col. Dwight Sullivan, a former American Civil Liberties Union attorney, calling it "quite a coincidence" that the Navy promotion board passed on promoting Swift "within two weeks of the Supreme Court opinion."

We simply do not have the facts here. Could someone on the promotion board have been negatively influenced by the Hamdan decision? Sure. Anything is possible. However, it would be wise to keep in mind that the "up or out" policy has some strict rules. At Swift's level only 50% of officers make the cut at all. Swift was passed over by the board a year earlier. The failure rate for getting promotion the second time if passed over a year earlier is 98%.

It most likely was not malice, but just the way the system operates. I have known several good, solid career officers who got caught in this exact same system and are civilians now.

Collectively Off Their Nut

We here at Blue Crab Boulevard have mentioned many times that we're fond of the British. We've also mentioned many times that they have some unusual quirks. Whether it's saluting a goat, the quaint, if now outlawed, custom of beating one another with dead eels or a widespread horror of clowns, the Brits do peculiar things. (Not that you shouldn't be afraid of clowns with machetes, mind you.) We've just heard of a celebration in merry old England that proves conclusively that the Brits are collectively off their nut.

The World Conker Championships.

Amid much revelry and great intensity on the village green in the town of Ashton, Chris Jones, 48, of London was declared Conker King out of an initial field of 256 entrants.

Sandy Gardener, 35, from the Dordogne region of France, was likewise crowned Conker Queen for the year out of an entry of 64 women.

"It was very competitive but also very festive," competition ringmaster Richard Howard told Reuters. "This year we had entries from 19 countries."

Begun in 1965 by a group of friends whose fishing trip had been cancelled, the event on the town's village green has become an annual fair attracting hundreds of entrants and thousands of spectators — enjoying the spectacle and the beer.

So what exactly is this - er - sport? Equipment consists of a horse chestnut tied onto a string. The object is to swing the chestnut at another player's equipment and break it. The chestnut, not the player. As we said, off their nuts. Or off with their nuts as the case may be. The Ashton Conker Club has an official website. Doesn't everybody these days?

The Promising Path Of Defeat

Just for a contrary opinion on the whole Foley matter, here's Gerard Baker, US Editor and Assistant Editor of The Times of London, writing at Real Clear Politics. What if it's all a Republican plan to lose in 2006 to ensure victory in 2008?

Think about it.

If the GOP retains control of both houses of congress next month, the medium-term outlook for them - specifically in 2008 - will suddenly look a lot bleaker.

For two more crucial, pre-election years Democrats will be able to lay the blame for all the nation's ills entirely at the Republicans' door. Democrats will have to take no responsibility for running foreign policy, fighting terrorism or defending the homeland. They will be free to exploit every misstep (I'm making a wild guess that there will be a few) just in time for the 2008 campaign.

If the economy turns sour - as looks increasingly possible - it will be added to the list of ills the GOP has brought the country.

If they retain control, Republicans are much less likely to feel the need to nominate someone in 2008 best positioned to garner votes from across the political divide - such as John McCain or Rudolph Giuliani. Instead they will feel freer to select a base-pleasing conservative firebrand such as Newt Gingrich, who will, for all his undoubted strengths, be a tougher sell for a general election.

Now imagine instead that the Democrats win one or both houses of congress. They will actually have to start sharing responsibility for government in what could be a very uncomfortable couple of years. If things go wrong they will take at least some of the blame. If things are OK, they won't get much credit, and can always be attacked as a "do-nothing" congress.

And remember what the nation's congressional leadership will look like if Democrats win on November 7. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. House Speaker, and two heartbeats away from the presidency, Nancy Pelosi. If that doesn't scare the children nothing will.

Baker argues that if he were Hillary, he'd be searching for a sex scandal to set the party back on the promising path of defeat. Well, it's certainly a different theory. Not a new one, however. I have heard much the same from a number of sources recently. But heck, it gives us a chance to report a classic:

The kids should be running it terror right about now!

Unbecoming Of A Mature Democracy

Mark Steyn's harsh, harsh judgment on the Foley matter. His column in the Chicago Sun-Times is scathing. He's hard on everyone involved in it, too. He's equally unimpressed with the response by Congressional Republicans as by the opportunistic and hypocritical Democrats leading the charge.

J. Dennis Hastert actually stood up in public and made that announcement. And, of course, the Democrats immediately denounced the notorious Gay Pedophile Ringleader of the House for the pitiful inadequacy of his page tip-line: Oh, sure, now he wants to set up 1-800-GAY-PAGE and invite anyone with info to use the secure log-in at www.GOPpredators.com, but where was he when the buck stopped here en route to the end-of-legislative-session communal showers? Speaker Hastert called in the FBI, the CIA, the DEA and announced an emergency bill to rename the BATF the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Pages. He declared Mark Foley's pants a federal disaster area. He voted a $4 billion reconstruction earmark to the congressional page program and invited Dubai Page World to run it. And, with every press conference designed to get himself out of the hole he'd dug at the previous press conference, the 50 percent of Americans who pay minimal attention to politics (which, if there's any justice, will be up to 93 percent by now) caught Hastert floundering on the evening news and thought, "So that's the gay pedophile, eh? Disgusting. There oughtta be a law against it."

Well, there is. Many laws, in fact. And it's not clear any of them were broken. It's a good basic rule of thumb that no matter how bad a scandal is, the political class' response will be worse, largely hysterical and lacking any sense of proportion. But, even by those minimal expectations, this last week has been unbecoming for a serious nation. In London, sex scandals come along every other week. You name it, British parliamentarians do it: three-in-a-bed, auto-erotic asphyxiation, gay teen flagellation, getting your toes sucked while wearing the soccer kit of Chelsea Football Club. But at least at Westminster, sex scandals require actual sex. That the governing party of the world's only superpower could be felled by one creepy pervert's masturbatory e-mails and IMs is an event historians will marvel at. Granted that the Roman Empire in its death throes got hung up on gay sex, the American hyperpower seems set to be the first to collapse over gay non-sex.

Harsh words for a foolish, or should we say Foleyish, scandal. A sideshow run by carnival barkers. Steyn, however, also has more faith in the voters than do the ones pimping this sideshow. He does not think it will have the effect that the Democrats expect.

And the answer to that is obvious. This was a honey trap (as they used to say in the Cold War) designed to leverage one peripheral figure's squalid fantasies into political opportunity. It's as predictable as the leaves falling from the trees, except that it only occurs every other autumn. Still, I take my hat off to the media and Democratic Party. Indeed, in the spirit of Bill Clinton, I take my pants off to them. It is a remarkable achievement to have transformed, in little more than a week, the GOP into the Catholic Diocese of Boston with Speaker Hastert as Cardinal Law and the page program as the massed ranks of 7-year-old altar boys. What an awesome force the Dems would be if only the ruthless skill and cunning that went into this operation could be applied to, say, national security.

But I very much doubt, despite the expertise with which the sheep have been rounded up and set baaing, that Showtime at the Foley Bergere will pay off in November. There are many legitimate reasons for electors to toss out the Republican Congress, but the notion that they're a hotbed of gay pedophile enablers is not one of them.

But by wasting all the effort and time on a sideshow, the Democrats are missing a chance to engage on real issues. It may be the worst strategic move they have made all year. A "scandal" such as this is unbecoming of a mature democracy. And ultimately unbecoming of the carnival barkers trying to upset an election with it.

Little Hinges

Here's an ironic twist: Michael Goodwin, no fan of the administration or of the way Republicans have done while in Congress is nonetheless very, very unhappy with the focus on the Foley matter. He cautions that this is not the issue that the election should turn on.

The saying that "history turns on little hinges" is a recognition that petty and personal issues often produce earth-shaking events. And there is no smaller hinge than Mark Foley's creepy e-mails.

The uproar over the former GOP congressman's lecherous behavior toward male pages is turning Washington inside out and upside down. The town that usually sees no evil has suddenly found it under every rock. The frenzy is rich with ironic comeuppance, as Democrats engage in a gay witch hunt and Republicans demand criminal probes of themselves. It's almost enough to make you forget Iraq.

And there is the problem. The temptation is to be distracted by, and even enjoy, the unusual spectacle of members of Congress actually worrying about what ordinary Americans think of them.

Yet good sense compels the conclusion that we are verging on too much of a good thing. It's not just that, once again, our obsession with sex makes us a laughingstock to the world. It's about whether we really want Foley's behavior to be the deciding factor in who wins the midterm elections, and thus controls Congress. And controls tax policy and judgeships and the war on terror and … you name it.

I sure don't, and it's not because I believe Republicans have done such a swell job of running everything. With control of the White House and Congress, the GOP has made a mess and deserves a good beat-down. Having Democrats responsible for something other than second-guessing could help put the checks back in checks and balances. Mixed government proved its virtues in the mid-'90s, after Republicans swept the '94 congressional elections and forced Bill Clinton to be a more centrist President.

So I'm all for throwing the bums out. I just don't want to do it because Foley had a sick thing for young boys and nobody in power blew the whistle. I felt the same way about Clinton and Monica. Impeachment wasn't the answer. Censure and ridicule were.

A level-headed approach is critical now. We're at war with an enemy that wants to wipe us off the map unless we're willing to convert to Islam and feed Israel to the wolves. That addiction to oil President Bush cited - we haven't taken the first step in kicking it.

He's right of course that this Foley matter is not worthy of the uproar that is being generated by the carnival barkers pimping it. I happen to believe that the issue will actually backfire and have said so a number of times. One wonders in reading this if Goodwin isn't afraid of the same thing.

He's right of course that this Foley matter is not worthy of the uproar that is being generated by the carnival barkers pimping it. I happen to believe that the issue will actually backfire and have said so a number of times. One wonders in reading this if Goodwin isn't afraid of the same thing.

Iran Threatens West Not To Threaten

Iranian doublespeak continues with Iran warning the West not to "talk to Iran with the language of threat and sanction". The warnings come amid some signs that the six powers involved are approaching a decision to at least speak firmly to Iran, even if they don't actually do anything.

In a meeting late on Friday, representatives from the five permanent US Security Council members plus Germany agreed to discuss sanctions against Tehran after it failed to suspend sensitive uranium enrichment operations.

Senior US official Nicholas Burns said the so-called "5+1" group would start drafting this week a sanctions resolution, although he admitted finding a consensus on the extent of punitive measures would be difficult.

"I recommend to the 5+1 group not to talk to Iran with the language of threat and sanction," retorted Iran's conservative parliamentary speaker Gholam Ali Hadad-Adel Sunday.

He reaffirmed that Iran was ready to negotiate over its nuclear programme and said talks between the top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana had been fruitful for both sides.

"Though both sides have expressed satisfaction, some comments made in 5+1 meeting smell of threats and sanctions."

"We are ready to continue negotiations since our comments are sensible and we do not want to violate international and International Atomic Energy Agency regulations."

"If with all our talks, they still talk about threats and sanctions, then it becomes evident that our nuclear issue is only a pretext for some powers like the United States to put pressure on our nation."

However the momentum towards imposing some kind of UN sanctions regime on Tehran appears strong after the London meeting, which included US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and top diplomats from the five other countries.

Frankly, I'll be surprised if the West actually imposes sanctions in any meaningful way at this point. Iran is already signaling that it doesn't care if they do anyway.

The Mistakes Hezbollah Made

The Washington Post has a long article dissecting the war in Lebanon and the terrible miscalculations that Hezbollah made all along the way. In the long run, the terror group was able to survive, but at enormous cost.

BEIRUT — The meeting on July 12 was tense, tinged with desperation. A few hours earlier, in a brazen raid, Hezbollah guerrillas had infiltrated across the heavily fortified border and captured two Israeli soldiers. Lebanon's prime minister summoned Hussein Khalil, an aide to Hezbollah's leader, to his office at the Serail, the palatial four-story government headquarters of red tile and colonnades in Beirut's downtown.

"What have you done?" Prime Minister Fouad Siniora asked him.

Khalil reassured him, according to an account by two officials briefed by Siniora, one of whom later confirmed it with the prime minister. "It will calm down in 24 to 48 hours."

More technocrat than politician, Siniora was skeptical. He pointed to the Gaza Strip, which Israeli forces had stormed after Palestinian militants abducted a soldier less than three weeks earlier. Israeli warplanes had blasted bridges and Gaza's main power station.

Calmly, Khalil looked at him. "Lebanon is not Gaza," he answered.

What followed was a 33-day war, the most devastating chapter in Lebanon's history since the civil war ended in 1990, as Hezbollah unleashed hundreds of missiles on Israel and the Israeli military shattered Lebanon's infrastructure and invaded its south. Nearly three months later, parts of the country remain a shambles and tens of thousands are still homeless as winter approaches.

There are some startling admissions here. Hezbollah failed to evacuate civilians leading to greatly increased loss of life. They say, apparently, that the failures occurred because they did not foresee the retaliation. But regardless of the reason, they are admitting they did not act and caused civilian deaths. There is also an interesting point made. The cross-border raid and kidnapping of two soldiers that prompted the war are totally out of character for Hezbollah, according to one long-time watcher of them.

Goksel, the former spokesman for the U.N. force, has watched Hezbollah's evolution since its incarnation in the wake of Israel's devastating 1982 invasion of Lebanon. He recalled an incident in 2001-02, more than a year after the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. In two locales near the border, Khiam in the east and on the road to Naqoura on the coast, Hezbollah brought out excavation equipment and trucks, hauling away dirt. Men hung around, looking suspicious. And over as many as six months, in plain sight, tunnels were dug into the limestone of rugged southern Lebanon.

"We were meant to see these things," he said. "They were not making any effort to stop us looking."

At the time, he said he now believes, Hezbollah, farther from view, was digging other tunnels around Labouna, Aita al-Shaab and Maroun al-Ras, all along the Israeli border, that they employed for ambush and cover in combat to sometimes devastating effect during this summer's war.

"Looking back, they really fooled us on that one," Goksel added.

….

"They don't attempt adventures. They're not adventurous types," Goksel said. In every operation, they would project "what it means for Shiites, what it means for the party, what it means for Lebanon, what it means for Syria."

He paused. "One wonders if that process collapsed somehow," he said.

Note also the uselessness of the UN peacekeepers in stopping any of the Hezbollah activities prior to the war. Hezbollah built and fortified positions in plain sight of the UN. Even the Nasrallah dismisses it, it would seem obvious that Hezbollah was following orders. Many people, myself included, strongly believe Hezbollah was doing Iran's bidding as part of a proxy war meant to distract the world from Iran's nuclear weapons program.

It is a long article, but has a number of interesting items in it.

China And Japan Meet

Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held the first summit between the two nations in five years to talk about strategies to stop North Korea from carrying out a threatened nuclear test. Both leaders are very worried about the possibility that Kim Jong Il may detonate a nuclear weapon and are vowing to work together to stop the test. There are now conflicting stories about how imminent the test may actually be.

Meanwhile, a former South Korean lawmaker said North Korea denied a nuclear test was imminent, citing a Chinese diplomat who spoke to officials from the North on Sunday. China is North Korea's closest ally.

There had been speculation that a nuclear test could come Sunday, the anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's appointment as head of the Korean Workers' Party in 1997.

However, former South Korean lawmaker Jang Sung-min said the North told China it had not raised the alert level of its military. He said he spoke to an unidentified Chinese diplomat who learned of North Korea's stance from Pyongyang officials Sunday afternoon.

Jang said the North also told China it may drop plans to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks with Pyongyang — or accelerate the plans if the U.S. moves toward sanctions or a military attack. The United States has repeatedly denied it intends to invade North Korea.

Jang, who spoke in Seoul, is a former ruling party lawmaker who currently heads a think tank in Seoul and has been active in Northeast Asian affairs.

The Chinese official's comments could not be independently confirmed.

In Beijing, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met in the first summit between the Asian powers in five years. Relations between the two countries have been strained, but efforts to arrange the summit gathered urgency after North Korea threatened the nuclear test.

"Hu and Abe, during their talks, said they were deeply concerned over North Korea's threat to conduct a nuclear test, and they vowed to cooperate to dissuade it from conducting one," a senior Japanese delegation official told reporters on condition of anonymity because of rules for the briefing.

Abe, whose country has felt increasingly threatened by North Korea's missile and nuclear programs, was leading a round of shuttle diplomacy. He was to visit Seoul for talks with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun on Monday.

Persuading China and South Korea to support forceful diplomacy and potentially tough sanctions against Pyongyang is seen as crucial. Over the past three years, Beijing and Seoul have resisted sanctions and argued for engagement as the best way to deal with the isolated regime.

Japan's Abe appears to be hitting the ground running in his new leadership role. If he can succeed in getting China and South Korea to back stronger action against the rogue regime in North Korea, he may be able to head of the test for at least a while. Whether Kim is sane enough to realize the danger he is putting his country in by pulling this stunt is an open question. At least Abe is working hard to try to stop it. The internal disarray in the US is not helping him at the moment, however.