Experts Not Sure About North Korean Test
Experts are saying that the small yield of the North Korean nuclear test is a big surprise. They are at a bit of a loss to explain what exactly the North Korean explosion was. There is a possibility that it could have been conventional explosives, a low-yield by design (a proof of concept) or a partial explosion. The last would be a partial fizzle, but would still be considered a success. Everyone looking at this is confused.
A senior intelligence official called it a "sub-kiloton" explosion detonated inside a horizontal mountain tunnel and said its low yield caught analysts by surprise. "For an initial test, a yield of several kilotons has been historically observed," the official said.
A U.S. government official said the North Koreans, in a call to the Chinese shortly before the test was conducted, said it would be four kilotons. The official said it is possible the explosive yield was as low as 200 tons. France and South Korea both issued sub-kiloton estimates, and officials dismissed as inaccurate an early Russian estimate that the blast resulted from a five-to-15-kiloton explosion.
President Bush said early yesterday that U.S. experts were "working to confirm North Korea's claim." By the end of the day, intelligence officials were still piecing together data and waiting to review intercepted communications that might shed light on what exactly the North Koreans set out to accomplish in the test and how it was conducted.
If confirmed, North Korea's ascension into a growing nuclear club — joining the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, India and Pakistan — would likely have a major impact on efforts to halt the spread of nuclear weapons. (Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, although it apparently has never conducted a test.) It is the only country to walk away from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and then violate its central tenet — a commitment to refrain from building nuclear weapons.
Intelligence and administration officials said yesterday they believed North Korea had managed a nuclear test of some sort, but because of the secrecy of the Pyongyang regime and the lack of scientific data, some observers would not eliminate the possibility that the blast was created by conventional explosives.
The relatively small size of the explosion, along with North Korea's public statement that the test did not produce any radioactive leakage, led some to question how well the test had gone. Small amounts of leakage are normal during nuclear tests, though it can take several days for the ventilation to register. One U.S. official said radiation detectors in the region were being monitored for any signs in the air from the nuclear test.
Frankly, this is going to just complicate the situation at the UN. If there is no consensus what exploded, how are they going to reach a consensus on what to do about it.? I really can't believe Kim would be so dumb as to fake a nuclear explosion, so I am of the mind that it was either a proof of concept or a partial fizzle. If they can determine that there is some radioactive seepage, that will at least put that issue to rest. That may take a few days, however.
North Korea | Gaius October 10, 2006
Other Links to this Post
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Sister Toldjah » The Norks test: US doubts it was nuclear (UPDATED) — October 10, 2006 @ 8:09 am
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Leaning Straight Up — October 10, 2006 @ 8:17 am
By Kathy, October 10, 2006 @ 9:30 am
It was an advertisement.
Il promised this detonation on the ninth anniversary of his ‘rule’. Someone telling him they don’t have enough mat’l for a big explosion might wake up dead – so they said ok.
It really is immaterial how big it was, they intend to go forward until it is bigger. We need to do something about it before he does it. For all we know his next detonation may not be inside a mountain.