Dead Heat In NJ Senate Race

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The latest Quinnipiac University poll in the New Jersey Senate race shows a dead heat. Relative positions have reversed with Menendez now ahead, however both this and the last poll show the results are within the margin of error. Essentially, there has been no real change at all.

The new Quinnipiac University poll shows Menendez favored by 49 percent of likely voters, compared to 45 percent of those polled favoring Kean. Six percent were undecided.

In the last Quinnipiac poll, released Sept. 20, Kean was favored by 48 percent of likely voters with Menendez at 45 percent.

Both polls have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning the difference between the candidates is not clear-cut. Also, 18 percent of those polled said they could change their mind before Election Day.

The latest poll of 761 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 4-10.

"It looks like the two will be neck and neck down the stretch to Election Day," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the poll.

In the latest poll, Kean continues to outpoll Menendez on the issue of honesty.

Kean is viewed as honest and trustworthy by a margin of 51 percent to 18 percent, while voters are split on Menendez's honesty and trustworthiness, 38 percent to 39 percent.

That last result is where Menendez is in real trouble. Kean has a commanding lead in the honesty department. If any more bad news comes out about Menendez, that may well sink him. This is another place where the Democratic "Culture of Corruption" theme risks cutting their own candidates as badly as the Republicans.

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3 Responses to Dead Heat In NJ Senate Race

  1. Dan says:

    The “no real change” being that Menendez is no longer behind. Of course it’s still way to close to say one candidate is going to be the clear winner. I find it pretty amusing that you were so quick to point out that Menendez was behind, but now that polls show a swing, albeit a small one, there is “no real change”.

    But, at least you’re consistent. That falls right in line with your some-polls-matter-some-polls-don’t-i-choose-which philosophy.

  2. Dan says:

    Just for the record, I personally think Menendez will lose. His Iraq-related commercials are way to black and white, and way to easily labeled by GOPers with the “party of cut and run” crap.

    NJ is, I think, a very moderate state. I happen to live in a very Republican area, but the war is really what polarizes the parties in this area (not that this is unique to NJ). In terms of social issues, and even economic ones, NJ Republicans and Democrats are very similar. A lot more similar than they would admit I think.

    Of course, the fringes are everywhere.

  3. Gaius says:

    Uh, Dan, I pointed out that Kean was ahead because it was not supposed to be a close race. I think you should re-read it. I was much more emphatic about the trust issue, not the relative number.

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