Partay!

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Party politics writ large. There is speculation that there is  a groundswell in the body politic in the US that will suddenly lead back to the promised land of a solid Democratic party majority. Well, promised land for the Democrats, anyway. Ann Althouse takes a look at the whole thing and, as usual, disabuses a few people about exactly how foregone this conclusion is.

Probably? What about all the Democrats — myself included — who lost their party affiliation over 9/11. Does anyone even want to get out my vote? Actually, I'm contacted by the Democratic party constantly. They're desperately pushing me to vote. Governor Doyle's campaign just sent me a form to apply to vote by mail. ("Anyone in Wisconsin can vote by mail… No special reason required.") Actually, there's a good chance I won't vote!

Back to Kirkpatrick:

[P]olls showing Democrats poised for big gains this fall in both chambers of Congress are reigniting the debate: Can Democrats crack apart the Reagan coalition of white blue-collar workers, evangelical Protestants, Southerners and chambers of commerce? Or will shifts in population toward the outer suburbs, the South and the West combine with the Democrats’ secular, liberal Northeastern image to keep the party a minority in national elections for years to come?…

The Democrats’ hope is that the war changes the reputations of the two parties in a way that may ultimately lead to remaking their constituencies as well…

It may not be quite what some people expect, this election. Oh, there is no guarantee which party will take which chamber of Congress. But it is premature in the extreme to bet which way the electorate will align itself in the long term. There is a very good reason the "Reagan coalition" formed in the first place. The Democrats have not changed the equation away from those causes at this point. While there may or may not be a short term shakeout, it is far too early to try and predict a long-term realignment. (I doubt there will be one, no matter what the short term brings.)

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  1. Pingback: Blue Crab Boulevard » Blog Archive » Political Realignment?

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