Asia’s Crime Boss
Aaron L. Friedberg, writing in the Washington Post suggests how the rogue regime of Kim Jong Il might be convinced to give up nuclear ambitions. It would not be easy. Nor would it be by talking one-on-one with the mad midget. Instead, the money which props up the North Korean government must be choked off.
Despite what many have suggested, this cannot be achieved simply through face-to-face negotiations or by offering security guarantees and economic aid. Kim is a cynical realist and will not exchange his nuclear capabilities for empty acts of diplomatic deference or what he would doubtless regard as mere scraps of paper. The hope that he might be tempted to ease the suffering of his people is also sadly misplaced. Kim has been described by psychological profilers as a "malignant narcissist"; he cares only for himself and is indifferent to the pain of others.
Whatever his quirks, Kim is also a cunning and rational strategist with one overriding objective: ensuring his own survival by maintaining an absolute grip on power. The only way to move him is by confronting him with a stark choice — turn over existing nuclear weapons, dismantle production facilities and submit to rigorous international inspections, or face a steadily rising risk of overthrow and untimely death. This demand can be sweetened with promises of aid and peace pacts, but in the end Kim needs to be presented with an offer he cannot refuse.
North Korea is an impoverished nation with virtually no legitimate exports. Most of its citizens scratch out a meager subsistence. Yet Kim and those around him enjoy a life of comfort, driving powerful foreign cars, drinking expensive imported whiskey, watching bootlegged DVDs and treating their ailments with the best Western medicines.
The hard currency needed to pay for these luxuries, as well as imports essential to the North's programs for weapons of mass destruction, is generated through a variety of illicit activities: counterfeiting U.S. and other currencies, manufacturing and exporting narcotics and phony name-brand cigarettes, and selling weapons from small arms to ballistic missiles to any customer with cash.
Friedberg suggests a number of ways to choke off the supply of money. All will be hard to implement. Implementing a complete interdict and inspection program of all shipping will bring about a lot of difficulties. (But it could be that nations banning any ship from North Korea entering its ports could help. Japan has done so, so has Australia.) Putting pressure on the Chinese and South Korean governments to inspect in a meaningful way will also be very difficult. But it might be time to start examining ways to do so. Placing some trade penalties on those countries that continue to do business with North Korea may be the only way to force changes.
Is any of this going to make the US more popular? No. Would it have a chance of curbing North Korea? Yes. Read the whole thing, see what you think of Friedberg's ideas.
North Korea | Gaius Monday, 16 October , 2006
