Cash On Hand

The Washington Post points out a potentially jarring note for all the people cheerleading a Democratic victory in the midterms. Despite the pronouncements of the Greatest Defeat In Modern Electoral History™, it appears that the Republicans have substantially more money on hand in close races than the opposition. That is not usually considered a sign of impending defeat.

Despite a rush of campaign donations to Democrats earlier this year, Republican incumbents in highly competitive races in the House have a substantial cash advantage going into the final weeks before the midterm elections.

Democrats spent more heavily over the summer and early autumn than their Republican rivals in pivotal House districts, leaving themselves at a disadvantage of more than 2 to 1 in money on hand, according to a Washington Post analysis of the latest campaign disclosures.

"What this means is that Republicans have the wherewithal to slow down the tide that's been running against them this year," said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute, which tracks election funding.

To capture control of the House on Nov. 7, Democrats need to gain 15 seats. Analysts in both parties acknowledge that Republicans are virtually certain to lose at least a handful of seats. But whether that number falls short or surpasses the 15-seat threshold, they agree, could hinge on campaign fundamentals such as the amount of money available to candidates.

At the same time, Democrats are on a better financial footing in open seats — those in which an incumbent is not running. Of the 12 open House races considered tight, Republicans have more cash on hand in seven of them and Democrats are ahead in five, the Post analysis shows.

Election experts noted that funds raised by candidates are only part of the overall picture. This year, in particular, outside groups and the parties have been spending heavily in districts considered up for grabs.

But the cash in candidates' coffers is a significant factor in congressional contests, said Kent Cooper, co-founder of PoliticalMoneyLine.com, a campaign finance Web site. "It's also the best sign we have now" about which candidates hold an edge as the elections near, he said.

As I have said repeatedly, I am of two minds on the outcome of this election. I do not believe the cheerleading media reports, however. Many of those reports completely defy history or logic and appear to be running on straight wishful thinking. I'm taking all of the reports with a grain of salt the size of Detroit at the moment. If the Republican local candidates can refuse to rise to the bait and run a national campaign in the local races, the Democrats may get an unpleasant surprise in a few weeks. That cash on hand will be a vital part of that strategy.

UPDATE: Others: OTB, RWN, TMV, AJ Strata,