Better Get The Hired Help Warmed Up, Lyn

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A bit more evidence that victory celebrations for the Greatest Electoral Defeat In Recorded History Ever™ might be a bit premature comes from Barron's, the folks who know just a teeny bit about money. They analyze campaign finances and have used that to accurately predict elections in the past. They are doing so in this election cycle as well. And they are bucking conventional wisdom again this year.

Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three

We studied every single race — all 435 House seats and 33 in the Senate — and based our predictions about the outcome in almost every race on which candidate had the largest campaign war chest, a sign of superior grass-roots support. We ignore the polls. Thus, our conclusions about individual races often differ from the conventional wisdom. Pollsters, for instance, have upstate New York Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds trailing Democratic challenger Jack Davis, who owns a manufacturing plant. But Reynolds raised $3.3 million in campaign contributions versus $1.6 million for Davis, so we score him the winner.

Likewise, we disagree with pollsters of both parties who see Indiana Republican Rep. Chris Chocola getting whomped by Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly, a lawyer and business owner from South Bend. Chocola has raised $2.7 million, versus $1.1 million for Donnelly. Ditto in North Carolina, where we see Republican Rep. Charles Taylor beating Democrat Heath Shuler, a former NFL quarterback, because of better financing. Analysts from both parties predict a Shuler upset.

Read the whole thing. There are some surprises for some people, I think. If they track as accurately as in the past, there are going to be many people reaching for the Fernet Branca on November 8th. Sorry Lyn.

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8 Responses to Better Get The Hired Help Warmed Up, Lyn

  1. In a way, I’m actually a bit concerned about what will happen if the Dems don’t take at least one chamber of Congress. We saw the mass depression, the epidemic spread of BDS and possibly a few suicides when Bush won in 2004. What will the nutsroots do if they don’t get Speaker Pelsoi? My concerns range from mass suicide to the extreme of a form of Intifada.

  2. Gaius says:

    Hell, don’t worry. Alec Baldwin never left even though he swore he would.

  3. Diva says:

    QM,

    The Left is lots of talk and little action – as Gaius wisely pointed out: even big mouth Alec Baldwin didn’t leave as he promised to do when Bush won election and re-election.

    I actually think that all of the Lefty hatred against this country, the Bush administration and all others that don’t pray at the “church of Kos, Firedoglake and the rest of the Lefty Loon parade” successfully alienates moderates like myself.

    Actually, the more they pull to the left into the realm of European Islamofacists Appeasement Driven Socialism the more I move to the right and I’m not the only one …and trust me thousands like me will be voting on Nov. 7th against the Democrats (and I say that loosely they are Socialists – they long ago abandoned the political heritage of the Democratic Party ).

  4. Truth be told I’ve been a registered Republican for a grand total of about Eight months. And that was over fifeteen years ago. Mostly I’ve been a registered Democrat or Libertarian/independant. The craziness of the Left leaning Democrats…the vicousness of so many of them, the True Believr syndrome… has forced me to vote, moreoften than not, for a Republican.

    I’d like the most powerful government to be the one down the street from your house. A responsive government that works with the people to help and protect the people. That can only really happen on the smallest, local level. This is in direct contradiction to the Stalinist influenced Mega-staters that currently infest the Democrat Party. And so many of them are True Believers who will do anything for the power to make theri vision come true.
    QM

  5. Black Jack says:

    I wonder if Lyn is related to Chanda.

  6. Wrong Lear, that one’s Bill lear’s duaghter. I have a recording of Shanda singing. I’m not sure which is more agonizing to listen to.

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  8. drlloyd11 says:

    I remember a similar argument in 1994, claiming the Democrats would loose no more than 11 seats in the house based on fund rasing.

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