Drowning In The (Non)Wave?
Jed Babbin has a question over at Real Clear Politics that is worth contemplating. If the "wave" that the mainstream media is cheerleading for fails to materialize and the Democrats don't sweep into power, will it forever damage the "old" media?
Like sportscasters, political pundits resort to clichés when the game isn't going according to their predictions. If the expected Democratic "wave" fails to materialize - or if, against the odds, an electoral wave breaks to the Republicans' advantage - the punditry will be flooding the airwaves with clichés, backpedaling like a French army. But pundits, like weathermen, recover easily from wrong predictions. After this election, those I call the 527 Media may not, because they're doing their best to win it for the Democrats.
It's still not clear what's going to happen. With less than two weeks to go, the polls in many crucial contests - especially the Tennessee, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey and Virginia senate races - are either too close to call or within reach of possible turnovers. As a result, some of the pundits are hedging their bets. Two weeks ago, Dick Morris was predicting a tidal wave of Democratic wins. Two days ago, he backed off. What's going on?
Two things. First, the Republicans have finally deployed their ad onslaught, but on a local level that aims only at individual races. Second, the 527 Media — realizing that the flood of October surprises they engineered hasn't yet delivered Congress to the Dems — has dropped any pretense of impartiality. These two forces - combining like non-concentric physical forces that make planets wobble while they revolve - have prevented the 2006 election from becoming predictable to this point.
Babbin does not think the Republican ads are quite right and should be targeting more of the Democratic and media attempts to nationalize the election. (We disagree on that one). It is an interesting look at what is going on this election cycle, though. This is actually the flip side of an issue I posted about yesterday regarding the "new" media. That question was what will be the outcome of the struggle between "blog time" and "media time" and was asked by John Podhoretz. Babbin is predicting damage, possibly fatal damage, to the MSM if the wave doesn't happen.
In the last days of the campaign, the 527 Media will continue producing October surprises right up to election day. And, if the Republicans counter it as they still can organize to do, it will fail because the media's credibility is now at what may be an all-time low. They've proven that they, not the Democrats, are the opposition party. It remains for the Republicans to seize the advantage they offer. And it appears that, again, the Republicans will fail to do so. If the Dem wave doesn't break, it will be no fault of the 527 Media. Or of the Republicans who leave them immune from response. The pundits can retreat into clichés. But what will the 527 Media tell their shareholders to explain devalued stock and ruined brand names?
I've stated my position on this a number of times. I think the best thing the Republicans can do is not to rise to the bait and try to run nationally. Frankly, they are at a horrible disadvantage in a campaign like that precisely because the national media is lined up against them. In a local, one-on-one, state-by-state basis they can stay competitive. So far they are doing so. I think it would be a mistake to change course this late in the game. But I do agree with Babbin on one thing: the media may well cause itself an incredible amount of damage if that wave doesn't appear.
By Pam, Thursday, 26 October , 2006 @ 9:49 am
John Podhoretz touched on a similar them in the NY Post a day or two ago, but made it more of a comparison of who’s right: the MSM (trumpeting the demise of the Republicans) or bloggers (who are beginning to see an upward shift in Republican fortunes). It will be interesting to see who is right…
By Anchoress, Thursday, 26 October , 2006 @ 10:13 am
I’m pretty sure there is some massive fraud waiting in the wings. The reason the left is so confident (indeed the press is so confident they’ve even begun admitting their bias) has to be hinging on more than mere polling data, which everyone knows is unreliable.
By Gaius, Thursday, 26 October , 2006 @ 10:24 am
I’m afraid the agenda here may be to set the scene for massive numbers of lawsuits.