More Cheerleading

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The Associated Press is jumping up and down chanting, "1994, 1994" over and over and over. This must be part of some sort of magic incantation they pray will work for their chosen candidates in the elections. Their positively breathless analysis: The Republicans Are Doomed! Really. Honest.

Less than two weeks before the Nov. 7 election, the latest Associated Press-AOL News poll found that likely voters overwhelmingly prefer Democrats over Republicans. They are angry at President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress, and say Iraq and the economy are their top issues.

At the same time, fickle middle-class voters are embracing the Democratic Party and fleeing the GOP — just as they abandoned Democrats a dozen years ago and ushered in an era of Republican control.

"I don't think the Republican Party represents what I stand for. The guys I golf with, we're in the middle class, we're getting hurt," says Joseph Altland, 73, a retired teacher in York, Pa. He is a registered Republican but says he is considering becoming an independent.

The AP-AOL News telephone poll of 2,000 adults, 970 of whom are likely voters, was conducted by Ipsos from Oct. 20-25.

Aside from the fact that national polls are worthless in predicting local races, you can take whatever you want from this poll. It might be a good idea to read what My Election Analysis has to say about polls this year:

No, I don’t discount this argument at all, actually. In fact, one of the great unknowns of this cycle is the disconnect between the generic ballot and the race-by-race polling. Right now, the GOP is doing well in a surprising number of districts to be 22 points down in the generic balloting. There are four possible explanations for this:

(1) A large number of voters dislike Republicans, but still like their individual congressmen.

(2) Democratic voters in blue districts are incredibly energized, but Republicans are holding their own in their districts.

(3) Democratic voters have moved GOP voters in heavily GOP areas into their column, but not made progress in purple districts.

(4) The generic polling heavily oversamples Democrats.

(5) The district polls are just wrong, as it is impossible to sample heavily gerrymandered districts, or to draw conclusions off polls of 400 people.

He makes no claim to know exactly how much each of these factors is bearing on the polls today. But it helps clarify the issues that are out there this year.

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One Response to More Cheerleading

  1. syn says:

    I don’t know, a retired teacher aged 73 in York PA ‘playing golf’ believes the Republican Party is hurting the middle class? Something just doesn’t mix in this scenario.

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