The Warlike Clintonistas Again
What is it with former Clinton officials, the Washington Post and the sudden aggressiveness that was never once evident when Clinton actually held office? This is at least the third time I have read something by a Clintonista that is completely out of character to what that administration did while in power. Today, the subject is, again, North Korea. The author is Graham Allison, former assistant secretary of defense under Clinton. The call is basically to issue a threat that Kim's worker's paradise will cease to exist if a nuke explodes anywhere for any reason.
Effective deterrence required three components: clarity, capability and credibility. Clarity meant bright lines and unacceptable consequences. Credibility was understood to be in the eye of the beholder. How credible was the threat to trade Boston for Berlin? Never 100 percent. But U.S. forces, exercises and communication were crafted to convince Soviet leaders they dare not test it.
To date the Bush administration has demonstrably failed to deter Kim Jong Il. Successive U.S. demands that Kim not develop nuclear weapons, not test a missile and not test a nuclear bomb have been defied. In each case, the president has asserted that this would be "intolerable." Pressed to be precise about what this threat meant, however, Bush refused, responding instead, "I don't think you give timelines to dictators and tyrants." National security adviser Stephen Hadley has gone further, arguing that red lines make no sense in dealing with North Korea because "the North Koreans just walk right up to them and step over them."
Having stiffed Bush — and the world — in building a nuclear arsenal, testing a long-range missile and testing a nuclear weapon, might Kim now imagine that he could also sell nuclear weapons?
America's challenge is to prevent this act by convincing Kim that he will be held accountable for every nuclear weapon that originates in North Korea. This requires clarity, credibility about our capacity to identify the source of a bomb that explodes in one of our cities (however it is delivered by whomever) and a believable threat to respond.
Kim must be convinced that American nuclear forensics will be able to identify the molecular fingerprint of nuclear material from his Yongbyon reactor. He must feel in his gut the threat that if a nuclear weapon of North Korean origin explodes on American soil or that of a U.S. ally, the United States will retaliate precisely as if North Korea had attacked the United States with a nuclear-armed missile: with an overwhelming response that guarantees this will never happen again.
Forget the fact that China, Russia and the UN would not take such a threat lightly. Forget world reaction to the US going unilateral. Forget all the criticisms of the Bush administration for being too unilateral. Forget the fact that Clinton had a chance to stop the threat but instead resorted to massive bribery that failed utterly.
I'm actually not adverse to making it quite clear to Kim that there will be swift and certain destruction in his future if he's stupid enough to use a nuke. But it is a threat that should be made very carefully and to the right people. It should not, I think, be a broadcast to the world. So how would we know if such a warning has already been issued?
We wouldn't.
North Korea | Gaius Friday, 27 October , 2006
By BubbaB, Friday, 27 October , 2006 @ 12:23 pm
…and neither do the Clintonistas…
So, they should sit down and shut up!