Scary Stories

Well, here at last is the Democrats trying to lower expectations. But there is one problem. They actually sound scared right now. What if the polls are lying to them?

But Democrats have learnt from bitter experience that breaching the Republican defences — even with an opinion poll yesterday showing them with a 14 per cent lead nationally — is harder than it looks. The more fatalistic among them point out that in the year since the Katrina disaster the US has received many warnings about other hurricanes heading towards it. All of these, without exception, have fizzled out into nothing more severe than storms.

At the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee headquarters, Karin Johanson, the executive director, has taken up smoking again, but with only eight days to go before polling day she says that there is scant time for indulging the habit.

Speaking to The Times as she pored over the latest numbers from swing seats, Ms Johanson said: “Some of the polls are looking great — really great — but some of the recent ones have been looking not so good.” The Democrats were “swimming upstream”, she said, against long-term disadvantages. They will be outspent by as much as $100 million (£52 million) in the coming week because their opponents have amassed vast war chests for TV advertising. Boundary changes (a more pejorative word might be “gerrymandering”) mean that there are far fewer marginal seats to target than there were when the Republicans took control of the House of Representatives 12 years ago.

Then there is the Republicans’ edge in identifying and mobilising supporters — the “Voter Vault” system and the “72-hour project” — which was worth perhaps an extra million votes to them in key districts two years ago. Ms Johanson said that the Democrats had improved their own “Get-Out-The-Vote” operation, although no one knows by how much.

“The Republicans have convinced everyone, not least themselves, that the reason they did so well in 2004 was because of their turnout operation,” she said. “They think they’re smarter than us, and, the truth is, some of us think they’re smarter than us.”

I don't pretend to have enough skill at reading the tea leaves to call this one. I have documented several items that indicate the polls may be wrong. But at least the Dems are trying to lower expectations instead of playing superman.

Venezuela Caving?

Venezuela is signaling that it may consider the Dominican Republic as an alternative candidate for the UN Security Council seat that (T)Hugo Chavez could not succeed in buying. I am not conversant enough in Latin American relations to know whether that one will fly or not, It does look like they have given up in trying to force Chavez's puppet of Bolivia into the seat.

Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel's conciliatory remarks came as Guatemala said it would also consider backing a third country as diplomats seek a solution to the impasse that has failed to produce a winner after 41 rounds of voting.

Rangel said that while Venezuela has offered close ally Bolivia as an alternative, it also is open to others.

"The name of the Dominican Republic" has emerged as an alternative, Rangel said, adding that it is "a friendly country that has constantly expressed friendship with Venezuela."

The Dominican Republic enjoys solid relations with both Caracas and Washington — which Chavez has accused of using coercive measures to block Venezuela from winning Latin America's open council seat.

The Security Council is made up of 15 members. Five are permanent — Russia, France, Britain, China and the U.S. — while ten regional members rotate through two-year terms.

In Guatemala, Foreign Minister Gert Rosenthal said he was to meet with President Oscar Berger Monday to discuss the possibility of offering an alternative candidate.

"A third candidate is a possibility that we have resisted considering until today," Rosenthal told The Associated Press, without elaborating on which country Guatemala might back as an alternative.

Whoever it is in the end, it will not be Chavez. But it should be as close to a neutral as is possible to make this work. Chavez is the sticking point here, since he obviously wants whoever sits in the seat to be a tool for him. Since that is unlikely to get enough votes, he will need to reach neutral ground for a solution to happen.

Regardless, Chavez lost, and he lost big.

Connecting The Dots

I have absolutely no idea who Paco is, but that person has been good enough to mention and link the Crabitat several times over in Tim Blair's comment section, according to the Sitemeter logs. The most recent link was one to this post about polar bears and a BBC film crew (and nearly dinner). Now, being a good blogger, I am not shy about cheerfully stealing a good idea when it is thrown right in front of me. So Paco's comment (#17) over at Tim's place along with the comment from Achillea (#43) got me thinking.

If the BBC has taken it upon themselves to make sure the starving polar bears have an adequate supply of filmmakers, why is there so much angst about the effects of global warming on the polar bears? The bears will replace seal meat with bare meat and all will be well in the world. Forget all that gun advice in the original post. Take away the filmmaker's flare guns and feed the needy polar bears!

And if that doesn't fill them up, I happen to know where there is an abundant supply of fresh bat!

(Thanks for the links, Paco)

Worst Campaign Season Ever

Well, the Dems and their fellow travelers in the media wanted it to be all about protecting the young and the innocent when the Foley scandal was being pimped as the October surprise. But now it gets down to the wire and the young and the innocent are fair game, right? So long as they are the children of Republican political candidates.

From Wonkette , which now seems to be officially a gay website, and which is crowing that it got the smooch story pushed into the MSM. (Well, defnining MSM as a "nobody columnist from the Atlanta Commercial Appeal — but of course now all the MSM will pick up on it).

The justification for this? Well, of course, Republicans did it first (as they've noted the Ford clan seems to make most of its money as lobbyists), Republicans hate gays (no need to elaborate), and hypocrisy (about something or other).

As usual. The left apparently holds itself to very high standards, or rather they would, but they have to "get tough" against all these mean and racist and homnophobic attacks by Republicans.

The left tried desperately to paint the RNC-funded "Call me" video as racist. Ford himself said it was not. So now the response is to show a candidate's daughter kissing another girl and point the finger. Just like the left's propensity to portray enemies in blackface, it shows a complete and fundamental shallowness. They could not understand why Foley did not work as the big issue, they won't understand why this will not, either. Because they remain, at heart, ClueProof™.

Gold Rush

Going Batty

Dateline Americus, Georgia: The animal uprising has almost concluded it's master plan to take over an American town with aerial shock troops. They have driven the last man who had been trying to stem the tide into crying uncle. The Batman has been defeated.

By the bats.

AMERICUS, Ga. - So many bats have infested the town's historic district that the sky turns black with each sunset and the neighborhood is calling on Batman to come to the rescue.

That's what the local bat remover goes by. George Perkins often makes public appearances in the caped crusader's costume and drives his own Batmobile — a retro-styled Chrysler Prowler with bat emblems. Callers to his office in Eufaula, Ala., known as Bat Cave 1, or Union Springs, Ala., known as Bat Cave 2, hear the "Batman" TV show theme while on hold.

The bat-weary residents of Americus aren't laughing. The problem is even too big for Batman, and now the state has promised to help. The Georgia Department of Natural Resources has proposed a long-term plan that includes surveying the bat population, possibly training city workers to do bat removals for needy homeowners and building bat houses in safe areas where the flying mammals can continue providing environmental benefits without being a nuisance.

"They're perpetual crap machines," said Tripp Pomeroy, who moved to the town of 17,000 in 1989 to work for Habitat for Humanity, which has its global headquarters here.

Pomeroy, now the co-owner of a fair-trade, organic coffee company known as Cafe Campesino, said he's spent $1,500 trying to evict bats from the attic of his 96-year-old traditional Southern home. Because of the health risks, he's reluctant to let his children sleep in their upstairs bedrooms.

Millions of bats — the leading cause of human rabies in the U.S. — have moved into the attics of Antebellum and Greek Revival mansions built in the 1800s and Victorian homes from the early 1900s in Americus' historic district covering about a third of the town's 10 square miles.

"The homes … in this small town are like art," said Deanna Burgess, a Minnesota native who recently moved into a Greek Revival home built in 1856. "They need to be brought back and preserved for future generations."

The state of Georgia is supposed to be helping out. Soon, they say. Of course, they won't let the besieged residents do what really needs to be done. Georgia defines bats as protected and will fine people up to $1,000 per bat if they kill the varmints. So playing batminton is right out.

Dying For Your Vote

Noel Sheppard has a column up over at Real Clear Politics. In it he reminds those who are thinking about sitting out the election what exactly that means. He also points out that those who choose not to vote dishonor those who have died to secure the right to vote, not just American voters, either.

2,808 Americans have died in Iraq the past 43 months. Another 282 have met such a fate in and around Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom. Likely all are rolling over in their graves as fellow countrymen who sent them to war are threatening to boycott Election Day.

Particularly disheartening to these fallen heroes must be the conservative abstentions, as likely 90 percent of such Americans were in favor of sending soldiers to Iraq in March 2003, while probably 100 percent supported invading Afghanistan after 9/11. It must be unfathomable to these brave souls that the very people who rallied politicians to risk lives for these efforts are now turning their backs on the honored dead, and what they died for.

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.—Thomas Paine

As amazing as it might seem, due to Republican failures to curtail spending, solve illegal immigration, cure Social Security, and police corruption, many Party members are forgetting the more than a million Americans that have died in battle for the precious right to vote.

Should we forsake that right now because this Congress has failed to address such issues? What does that say to the 3,090 soldiers that have died to give Iraqis and Afghanis such a right, or to the 170,000 Americans still at risk to protect it?

Maybe more importantly, would any of the fallen abstain from voting as result of these other issues if they were still alive today?

If the people fail to vote, a government will be developed which is not their government…. The whole system of American Government rests on the ballot box. Unless citizens perform their duties there, such a system of government is doomed to failure.—Calvin Coolidge

As the elections draw near, I find myself getting angrier and angrier. On a daily basis, I receive e-mail messages from conservative readers explaining why they’re not going to vote on November 7. Fellow conservative bloggers have elucidated their views on this subject supporting the abstainers, and explaining why a Democrat victory in eight days isn’t such a bad thing.

I won't belabor this, Sheppard has done a masterful job. (Highly recommended reading). In my own opinion, the absolute worst thing for any citizen is to fail to do your duty as a citizen. Voting is both a duty and a right. And too many Americans have died to secure your right to vote through the years for you to sit at home. Americans have secured the rights of many other foreign nations to vote as well. American soldiers gave their lives for most of Europe to have that right. Our soldiers have died to secure those rights all over the world, not just for Americans.

If you sit the election out, you disgrace those who have paid the price to give you your right to vote. Vote for someone. Do not negate their sacrifice out of spite, or anger or disgust. Exercise your right, purchased with the blood of others. Honor your duty as a citizen of the nation.

Killer Koalas Kloned

The Aussies have lost their marbles completely. Now, we have always been fond of the Australians. A country that produces Fosters and brought us Beccy Cole and shrimp on the barby can even be forgiven for Paul Hogan. But producing test tube koalas to ravage the world is insanity!

GOLD COAST, Australia - Scientists on Monday unveiled three test tube baby koalas produced with new artificial insemination technology designed to ensure the species' survival.

Three of the eight koalas, all born on the Gold Coast in Queensland state, made their first public appearance at a local wildlife sanctuary. They are between 10 and 12 months old.

They were conceived using new breeding techniques, which involve mixing sperm with a special solution that prolongs its shelf life.

Steve Johnston, the project leader and reproductive biologist at University of Queensland's School of Animal Studies, said his team now had the technology to use transported koala semen in Australia and eventually overseas.

They've fallen for that cute act. But it is just an act. The killer koalas blame all their victims on the crocodiles. And they've duped the Aussies into sending their evil all over the world. Now we realize there are people out there who doubt our sincerity in warning about the animal uprising. But we are not off out meds, we have photographic proof that those cute and cuddly looking koalas are stone killers. Our operative from Magic 8-Ball Photography and Auto Detailing, Inc. got this photo at great personal risk. Now that's a knife.

Autralian Mufti Steps Down

After apparently suffering a mild heart attack, Taj Din al-Hilali, the Australian mufti who compared women, unfavorably, to meat, has agreed to take an indefinite leave of absence from the job of mufti. He has also offered an apology, admitting that the analogy was completely inappropriate.

TAJ Din al-Hilali finally relented yesterday and agreed from a hospital bed to take "indefinite leave" from preaching after days of defiantly resisting calls for him to step down as the nation's Muslim leader. As Lebanese Muslim Association president Tom Zreika last night revealed that the besieged imam had suffered a "mild heart attack", Sheik Hilali for the first time in five days wholeheartedly apologised for likening women to uncovered meat to be preyed on by cats.

"I confess that this analogy is inappropriate and unacceptable for the Australian society and the Western society in general," Sheik Hilali said in a statement released after he was admitted tohospital.

His contrition came just hours following his collapse shortly after turning up at a crisis meeting at Lakemba Mosque yesterday morning.

Sheik Hilali was rushed by ambulance and police escort to Canterbury Hospital in western Sydney, complaining of "chest pains".

Mr Zreika said the Egyptian-born cleric had given a letter to the board outlining his intentions to leave his post for health reasons.

"In due course I will take the necessary decision that shall lift the pressures that have been placed on our Australian Muslim community and that will benefit all Australians," the letter says. "The pressure of the last couple of days has had an obvious effect on my health and wellbeing.

"I ask the public to give my family and I some privacy, time and space to recover. I have also asked for indefinite leave from my duties at Lakemba Mosque."

Mr Zreika told The Australian yesterday that his organisation's board accepted Sheik Hilali's request for leave.

"I think the general public now needs to give him some time to recover," he said. "He can't take it any more. It's really affecting his family and himself.

"The last thing we want him to do is pay with his life."

Hopefully this is a face-saving way for him to permanently leave the job.

Today’s Special: Photographer Under Glass

Two members of a BBC film crew got a chance to experience a little window shopping from the wrong side. It seems a very large and apparently very hungry polar bear took a keen interest in the pair while they were sitting in a hut. They got a tad nervous when the bear began peering in the window at them. Looking hungry.

Even when it's your job to film them, half a ton of ravenous polar bear peering through your window can be an unwelcome sight.

Especially when all that's between you and becoming the animal's dish of the day are the walls of an old wooden shack in one of the world's most remote spots.

Just ask intrepid BBC cameraman Doug Allan and field assistant Jason Roberts, who were confronted by this specimen while enjoying a game of chess in their 16ft by 16ft cabin during a break in filming.

Measuring 5ft to the shoulder and 10ft from nose to stump of tail, the male bear wandered over and seemed reluctant to leave until his hunger had been satisfied.

It was only after Mr Allan and Mr Roberts had three times tried to scare him off by setting off flares that their uninvited dinner guest finally lumbered away to see what was on the menu elsewhere.

The chilling encounter happened while the pair were filming in temperatures of minus 30C in Kong Karls Land, an archipelago in the Norwegian Arctic which had not been visited by humans for 25 years before their arrival for a five week shoot.

Frankly, they were lucky. If that bear had been hungry enough, they would have been the blue plate special for sure. I'd personally never go to a place like that without having a real firearm handy. A flare gun just won't cut it if the bear is serious. One of these would be a minimum in .460 S&W magnum, although the .500 S&W magnum would probably be better.

Maybe?

Not getting the hopes up just yet, but I did note the large casualty figures from this report and wondered what that might be all about.

CHINGAI, Pakistan - Pakistani troops backed by missile-firing helicopters on Monday struck a religious school purportedly being used as an al-Qaida training center, killing 80 people in what appeared to be the country's deadliest-ever attack against suspected militants.

Now Jay at Stop the ACLU has this post up.

ABC’s Blotter

Ayman al Zawahiri was the target of a Predator missile attack this morning on a religious school in Pakistan, according to Pakistani intelligence sources.

ABC News has learned the raid was launched after U.S. intelligence received tips and examined Predator reconnaissance indicating that al Qaeda’s No. 2 man may have been staying at the school, which is located in the Bajaur region near the village that is thought to be al Qaeda’s winter headquarters.

Despite earlier reports that the missiles had been launched by Pakistani military helicopters, Pakistani intelligence sources now tell ABC News that the missiles were fired from a U.S. Predator drone plane.

Between two and five senior al Qaeda militants were killed in the attack, including the mastermind of the airliners plot in the U.K., according to Pakistani intelligence sources.

No word yet on whether or not Zawahiri was killed in the raid, but one Pakistani intelligence source did express doubt that Zawahiri would have been staying in a madrassa, which is an obvious target for strikes against militants. That source, however, did express confidence that Pakistani intelligence is closing in on Zawahiri’s location.

Jay isn't getting his hopes up yet, but hey, it would be a good thing if Zawahiri was dead. The screams questioning the timing should start any second now.

UPDATE: Others: Strata-Sphere, LGF, Fourth Rail, Jawa Report, Flopping Aces, Gates of Vienna, A Blog For All, Confederate Yankee, American Footprints, The Astute Bloggers, Michelle Malkin,

Oaxaca Still Unsettled

The leftists were pushed back out of the main square in Oaxaca by Mexican forces, but are vowing to return. The government forces are holding the zocalo plaza using vehicles mounting water cannons. Everyday residents of the city have come out of hiding to thank the federal troops for freeing them from being held hostage by the protesters. Although some schools have reopened elsewhere in the area, none opening inside Oaxaca as of yet.

Teachers had promised to end their five-month strike for higher wages and go back to work Monday, but no students returned to classes in the tense capital.

On Sunday, federal police tore down protest blockades and pushed demonstrators out of the main square that had served as their home base for five months.

The colonial city, a favorite of tourists, more closely resembled a battleground early Monday, with streets littered with charred cars and lines of federal police blocking some entrances to the main zocalo plaza.

The city was deeply divided between protesters demanding Gov. Ulises Ruiz's resignation and those wanting a return to the tranquil days when foreign tourists browsed shops and dined on the region's famous mole sauce.

Ignoring protesters who screamed "Sellout!" a group of about 20 residents welcomed the police, touring streets and thanking authorities for taking control of the city.

"I don't want them to leave. Let them stay," Edith Mendoza, a 40-year-old housewife, said of the police. "We were held hostage for five months."

Before dawn Monday, federal police tore down the protesters' banners in the main square, mostly to wrap around themselves for warmth because they had been sent in without sleeping bags.

Riot police in body armor slept on sidewalks under the plaza's famous archways, rolled up against the chill night air in banners that once proclaimed people's power or demanded the resignation of the governor. Others sought warmth by burning bits of banners, wooden crates and other debris left behind by the protesters.

Interior Secretary Carlos Abascal said the federal forces would remain until order had been established and they were no longer needed.

Mark in Mexico is back up (his site was down for two days) and is playing catchup in getting his posting back up to speed. He has descriptions of much of what has gone on in Oaxaca in the past few days.

Oh No You Don’t!

Benjamin Radford is debunking ghosts again. This time, however, he goes too far. He is debunking the world of spirit photography. Obviously he has not seen the real, genuine Reuters Quality™ photographic evidence that abounds here in the Crabitat. But we digress.

Last year an exhibition of spirit photography was held at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City. Several of the pictures on display were created by Boston photographer William H. Mumler, who first claimed to have captured ghosts on film. Mumler produced many "spirit photographs" in the latter half of the 1800s, depicting faint, ghostly images in otherwise normal portraits. This caused a sensation and convinced many people with his seemingly excellent proof of ghosts.

Yet there was more to Mumler's photographic proof of life after death than met the eye; he was exposed as a hoaxer when some of the "ghosts" he had photographed were seen very much alive, living and working in Boston. In the process of his work, Mumler had simply stumbled across a crude method of double exposure, and hatched a plan to make a fortune with his fakes.

Thus, ghost photography began as an unseemly blend of photographic error and outright hoax.

Radford goes on to explain the "orbs" that are cited as "proof" of the existence of ghosts. It turns out that what causes the orb is a reflection of the camera flash off tiny particles or droplets in the air:

The easiest way to create an orb image is to take a flash photograph outdoors on a rainy night. The flash will reflect off the individual droplets and appear as white, floating orbs (the effect is most pronounced in a light rain, though even a little moisture in the air can create mysterious orbs). As researcher Joe Nickell notes in his book Camera Clues , unnoticed shiny surfaces are also common sources of orbs. (As well, flashes reflecting camera straps can produce other ghostly photo effects.)

During one investigation I conducted several years ago at Fort George ("Canada's most haunted place," in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario), I examined a large, wooden soldiers' barracks where ghosts and orbs had been reported. I took several flash photographs of the area, and I noticed that the building (essentially a barn-like structure) was quite dusty. As a television crew interviewed some ghost hunters, I noticed one orb, photographed it, and wondered what it might be ( image).

It hovered about chest-high and did not move at all, suggesting that it was not an insect nor a dust particle; instead it seemed supernaturally suspended in the air. It was several feet away from the nearest post, wall, or other visible means of support. The phenomenon was very strange.

I showed the image to one of the ghost hunters, who seemed pleased that I had captured what was obviously a ghost orb.

Upon further investigation…

Not content to simply declare my orb a sure sign of the supernatural, a fellow investigator and I searched even harder for a solution.

Sure enough, closer investigation revealed that the orb was in fact a tiny piece of dust or lint that clung to the remnants of a spider web ( image). It was a very unusual place for a web, and had I not traced the long, nearly-invisible line to its arachnid anchor, I would have rejected a web as an explanation. But it was a very long strand and just far enough away from the walkway that all but the tallest passersby would not walk through it. The dust mote was very difficult to see, and only apparent when a dark color appeared behind it for contrast, or when caught in a flash photograph. (Links removed)

Gee, he's taking all the fun out of this, isn't he? Another debunking by Radford is here.

Things Forgotten

It happens to us all. We forget to bring something when we're going on vacation. Or we leave something behind inadvertently, like leaving a coat or a hat or gloves when we leave a restaurant. It's just part of being human, right? I mean, it could happen to anyone. You could move into your new digs and leave a couple of corpses behind.

NICOSIA (Reuters) - Health authorities in Cyprus are trying to work out how two rotting corpses were left behind in a decommissioned mortuary with the electricity switched off after a hospital move early this month, officials said Saturday.

A funeral director made the macabre discovery after going to the mortuary of a new hospital which opened in the Cypriot capital three weeks ago, to collect a body for burial, Cypriot newspapers reported.

Failing to find it there, he went to the old de-commissioned hospital Friday and found two corpses in freezers which had been switched off.

One of the bodies was that of a Pole, the other a Moldovan, local papers reported, adding that the condition of one was so bad that it had to be buried immediately.

Just in time for Halloween. Or, you could be forgetful and leave a fingertip behind at the scene of a burglary, right?

"We usually find fingerprints at the crime scene, but it's not every day that thieves leave the original there too," said a spokesman for police in the central town of Hildesheim.

Police wasted no time in matching the piece of finger with existing prints they had from a 15-year-old of Iraqi origin.

The youth initially denied breaking and entering into an office to steal a computer but confessed when police produced the digital remnant, which had been severed on a broken window.

"Leave the original". I wish I'd come up with that one! Now if you're normally forgetful, you might be interested in a new development to remind you of important things:

A new mobile phone available through Japan's NTT DoCoMo can ring to let would-be mothers know when they reach the most fertile part of their monthly reproductive cycles.

By tapping in data on menstruation dates, the user can programme the phone to alert her three days before ovulation and again on the day. The company warns that the calculations are based on average cycles.

Whatever happened to the old string around the finger trick?

For Those Who Expect The Fat Lady To Sing

There might be an unexpected case of laryngitis waiting in the wings. The race to fill Tom DeLay's vacant seat has become a statistical dead heat despite all the Democratic efforts to keep DeLay's name on the ballot. By doing so, they expected the write-in effort of the Republican candidate to be an uphill battle. They may have figured wrong.

The Republican write-in effort to hold former Rep. Tom DeLay's congressional seat, once viewed as a long shot, has created a tight race, according to a Houston Chronicle-11 News poll.

Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.

Most who say they will write in a candidate plan on naming Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, the Houston city councilwoman backed by the Republican Party. Two lesser-known candidates also are running as write-ins.

One voter in four is still undecided.

Libertarian Bob Smither, the only person besides Lampson on the general election ballot, drew 4 percent support.

The third option on that ballot is "write-in." Voters who make that selection on the electronic voting machines that most will use are directed to an alphabet screen, where they use a wheel to spell out their choice's name a letter at a time.

I expect that there is a full-fledged effort at making sure people know how to spell 'Sekula-Gibbs' properly so there won't be too many spoiled ballots. Sometimes the attempts to fool with elections via lawyers and legal strategies actually backfire, I think. In this case, the effort to keep Sekula-Gibbs' name off the ballot may have given her additional name recognition and a significant sympathy vote.