Michael Steele has closed in on Democratic candidate Benjamin Cardin with the latest poll showing a 6 point gap between the two. Absolute numbers are always chancy, but seem to be especially so this year, so it is not so much the 49% vs. 43% that interests me here but rather the indication that Steele has momentum at this point. There are also a couple of numerical oddities in this information.
Some black registered Democrats say they are looking past party affiliation to support Steele because he is black, arguing that their party has banked on their support for too long without promoting African-Americans on its statewide ticket.
Aaron Wilkes, a Democrat from Baltimore who is black, said he supported former NAACP leader Kweisi Mfume in his party's Senate primary but that he'll cast a vote for Steele next week, not Cardin. A 39-year-old state employee, Wilkes said he is willing to overlook policy differences with Steele – on the Iraq war for example, which Steele supports – to make his point.
"The Democratic Party took my vote for granted," Wilkes said. "I felt by voting for Mr. Steele, it would show the Democrats my vote couldn't be taken for granted."
Though the Steele campaign has sought to fuel dissatisfaction among black voters with the Democratic Party, the poll shows Cardin has increased his lead among African-American voters since September.
The survey indicates that 74 percent of blacks back Cardin, compared with 12 percent for Steele. The last poll showed that 64 percent were for Cardin and 23 percent supported Steele.
The Sun poll is modeled on 19 percent black turnout, Haller said.
White voters, meanwhile, prefer Steele – as they do Ehrlich. Steele has a 7-point advantage over Cardin among whites.
Notice the almost weird turn in the percentages of black voters backing Steele? They decreased 10% in a month. And Steele is running very strongly among white voters. Those are two oddities. But the wild card here is that the poll was actually taken before the group of powerful black politicians made a surprise endorsement of Steele.
This one ain't over. Steele has a real shot at this.
Dems in Maryland are reduced to hoping white voters who say they support Mike Steele are really closet racists and once at the polls will not actually be able to bring themselves to vote for a Black man. Now, how twisted is that?