Mixed Signals

Jay Cost, over at Real Clear Politics has a very interesting post up about voter registrations. A new study by Curtis Gans of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate has some extremely surprising information about voter registrations and party affiliations.

Gans also offers some surprising information on partisan registration. He has analyzed the 13 states that have supplied partisan registration voting data, comparing them to prior years. Relative to 2002, the Republicans have actually closed the registration gap. In 2002, the Democrats had a 7.0% registration advantage over Republicans in these 13 states. This year, their advantage is down to 5.8%. I won't report the actual figures because they are inflated (due to deaths and geographical movement), but the trend lines here are, as Gans argues, valid (so long, of course, as Democrats are no more likely to have died or moved than Republicans).

Unfortunately, Gans only offers data for midterm elections — so we cannot determine whether, in 2004, the Republicans greatly increased their share of registered voters in 2004 and the Democrats have reduced that increase this year. Also, registration seems to square only loosely with final vote outcomes. Between 1978 and 1982, Republican registration increased by 0.8%, but they won fewer seats in the latter year. Between 1990 and 1994, it also increased by 0.8%. (Though I would note with interest that the last time the GOP lost as many seats as Cook and Rothenberg are predicting they will lose, their share of registered voters fell by 2.5%.) And, of course, being registered to vote and actually voting are two entirely different things.

This is significant for a couple of reasons. The conventional wisdom is that the Republican base is dispirited and shrinking. But this data does not show that. The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats are gaining numbers of voters. This data does not show that. Is it conclusive? Of course not. But it is of interest, especially given the predictions of the pending Greatest Electoral Defeat In Recorded History Ever™ and the fact that early polling shows that theoretical Republican candidates whomp heck out of Democrats for the 2008 presidential race. These two things are sending very mixed signals about the electorate. The study the Cost is writing about adds even more to the confusion.