Wild Cards?
AJ Strata actually sees some things that may very well spell some surprises for election day. It seems absentee voting is very, very heavy (mokus, the artist formerly known as Black Jack, had noted the same thing in comments the other day). There are more interesting things going on, as well. From TKS:
Well, here are some of the polls out Friday - Corker's up 9? Kean is within 2? Talent's still neck-and-neck? And now Steele's tied with Cardin? No polls out today in Montana, but the sense that this is neck and neck, and once left-for-dead Burns has the momentum? The guy who was opposite Rich Lowry on television this afternoon saying Democrats are worried about Rhode Island? (yawn)
All of this in a wave election?
And to piggyback on Byron's observation of Kos' comments: I'm not completely shocked that Kos is giving up on Tennessee, but again, Markos is kind of an interesting indicator. It will be tough for anybody to contend that Corker's not pulling away if even Kos says this one is over. (A smidgen of congratulations to Kos: One of the legimate knocks on him is that he puts too much effort and resources into the longest of longshots, and ends up going 0 for 16 or whatever instead of tipping the scales in much closer races. One of the things that political professionals have to do is make tough decisions, husband their resources, and set priorities; Kos has just determined that trying to salvage Harold Ford Jr. is not worth it for the Democrats.)
What really surprised me was Kos' comments about Montana. Folks, Kos was beating the drum for Tester since way back when nobody had heard of the flat-top. Tester's primary win is one of the netroots' true legitimate victories. On a similar note, Kos said that the Quinnipiac poll showing Lamont down 12 to Joementurm was "a sign Lamont is closing the gap." If Kos can see glimmers of hope in a race like Connecticut's, what is he seeing in Montana that has him sounding the alarm? How bad must these indicators be for him to be giving the "all hands on deck" sign, instead of saying, "we're on our way to victory!"
So, there are indications that all is not as the media has been trying to say it is. Back to AJ:
Simply Google “absentee” and you will stories from every state where absentee voting is way, way up and reaching levels comparable to the 2004 elections (they seem to have already passed the 2002 midterm marks). What this does mean is all those polls we have been seeing, where Dems have been weighted because of the drop of in Rep responses are bogus. And I do mean bogus. Rassmussen and others have said they have seen a big ‘increase’ in Dem party responses. And with these massive absentee and early voting levels it is clear these were not changes in the electorate, but changes in the electorate’s participation in polls. That is why pollsters would have done better to show the two results based on heavy turn out for both sides of the partisan aisle, and one result for equal turnout.
This is extremely interesting. It is going to be a rollercoaster ride from here on out. One thing that has not been happening that should have is that Democrats have not been pulling away. If the election was going to break Democrat, they should have started opening the lead. That has not been the case. So what internal data has Kos seen that has him worried? Makes you wonder.
By mokus, Saturday, 4 November , 2006 @ 5:27 pm
You don’t have to wonder. The data that’s got Kos worried is two fold: heavy early turnout which tends to favor the GOP in midterm elections; and momentum, which is all on the GOP side.
If the 2004 general election was indeed a “paradigm shift” and represents a major political realignment, then this midterm will be a “confirmation election” which validates and ratifies the shift.
Kos is now feeling a bit like Wile E Coyote. He just opened a big box from Acme Elections and now hears “Beep, Beep,” along with a suspicious ticking sound. He’s beginning to get that particular feeling of having been had, and strangely, the Roadrunner is starting to resemble Karl Rove.
By OldeForce, Saturday, 4 November , 2006 @ 10:08 pm
And how is it we’re not hearing anything about the military’s vote! Is this factored into any of the poles?
By InlandEmpireView, Sunday, 5 November , 2006 @ 11:23 am
But, while it may not be a Demo blow-out, it’s gonna be ugly. Dem’s have been setting in place prepackaged legal challenges. Working primarily through radical groups like Democracy for America, activists have been planting the seeds for the inevitable wave of lawsuits. For an example of this just Google up “busby bilbray lawsuit” and wander through the depressing results. Remember that the Dem’s were the ones advising their follower to allege disenfranchisement, even where none existed - that advice hasn’t gone away. It’s just gone under grown.
By mokus, Sunday, 5 November , 2006 @ 1:58 pm
Al Qaeda trains terrorist operatives to claim torture if captured, and Dems tell their election operatives to claim disenfranchisement if they lose.
What’s the connection? Both sets of tactics anticipate a favorable media response. Both the terrorists and the Democrats know that when things aren’t going according to plan they can always count MSM to help out.